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The Lead with Jake Tapper

U.S. Markets Nose-Dive Amid Recession Fears; Harris To Hold Rally With VP Pick Tomorrow In Philadelphia; Debby Weakens To Tropical Storm, Dumps Historic Rainfall; Key Hostage Negotiator On Details Of Delicate Prisoner Swap; Forensic Analysis Finds Evidence Of Hamas Resurgence In Gaza; Harris Campaign Generates New Energy In Battleground Arizona. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired August 05, 2024 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: And welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

It's a busy news day with multiple breaking stories. We're just moments away from the closing bell on Wall Street after this morning saw the highest level of market volatility melody since the beginning of COVID, more than four years ago, March 2020.

The Dow opened more than 1,000 points lower in reaction to Friday's unexpected probably jump in the unemployment rate in the United States.

[16:00:06]

This is raising fears of a recession. Though some analysts underlying that they think the economy is fine and investors are overreacting. Either way, it all looms large over the 2024 election at this pivotal moment when Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate imminently.

Harris spent the weekend interviewing three final contenders, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

And now multiple sources this is are telling CNN that Vice President Harris has trained her focus on two of those three, We will tell you which two and bring you the latest on where her decision stands as of this hour.

Meanwhile, we are also keeping an eye on a life-threatening situation in the United States as Tropical Storm Debby churns towards Georgia and Florida. The storm has already unloaded huge amounts of rain over Florida and it's about to get much worse. Debby is expected to slow down dramatically, leaning to potentially historic and catastrophic rainfall. Two cities already prone to flooding, Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, are preparing for the possibility of 20 to 30 inches of rain in the span of just a few days.

The city of savannah is warning residents of a once in a thousand-year potential rainfall event as a curfew goes into effect in that city tonight at 10:00 p.m. Eastern. Plus, we also have to lead exclusives in the wake of the dramatic prisoner swap a few days ago between the United States and Russia. We're going to talk with one of the now freed formerly, wrongfully detained Americans, Alsu Kurmasheva who's going to join us with her husband for her first public interview since being freed last week. We're also going to talk to the man at the center of all these prisoner rescues and exchanges, Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

But as we look to Wall Street and see the Dow going down as part of this global market panic, let's begin there, and let's bring in CNN's Julia Chatterley.

Julia, we hear the bell there. What -- what's the damage?

JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN BUSINESS ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: It was an ugly day. Just to give you some context here, this is the worst trading day for stock markets in nearly two years. In the early minutes of the session today, we saw around a trillion worth of wealth wiped off just a handful of the biggest tech stocks. So ugly is the way to describe it.

I won't use the word panic. This is not panic. Let's be clear. But there is a palpable concern out there that the U.S. economy is slowing far quicker than we thought. And that was fueled by, as you said, the jobs number that we got on Friday, weaker manufacturing data last week as well. It's raised questions about why on Earth the Fed didn't cut rates last week, if it knew this data was coming.

And I think there's justifiable concern there. I also think we have to take a step back briefly and just say, look, we're still overall adding jobs to the U.S. economy. No ones talking about imminent recession, but they are talking about rising risks and that the Fed should act on that. And I think they will.

Now, if it would just that, I'd be tempted to suggest that there's an overreaction going on in stock markets. But the problem is it's not just that. One of the strongest pillars of the markets so far this year has been the tech stocks. And we've now for a number of days seen a lot of people taking money off the table. They're still in profit, but they're just taking money off the table and that's had an impact.

Fast forward to what we saw last night, the Japanese stock market, that fell 12 percent. Now that is panic and you don't see something like that without seeing pressure on U.S. markets. Plus, it's summer time. There's simply less investors out there.

Jake, I will say the silver linings, the conversation has changed now over the Fed. It's not about if they cut rates in September, it's about how much they do. And I think that's the right conversation to be having.

TAPPER: All right. Julia Chatterley, thanks so much for that. I appreciate it.

Let's discuss further with CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar.

Rana, so you think that this big correction in the market is not just about the jobs numbers, the disappointing unemployment number from last week. What else do you think might be at play here?

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONMIC ANALYST: Well, the question is, what isn't at play? I mean, Julia is absolutely right that tech is a big part of the story. I said back in March that I thought that A.I. in particular, which has the story that's been driving the gains and a lot of those tech stocks may have been overblown.

That's not to say it's not going to pay off, but it's not going to pay off tomorrow. It's not going to pay off next quarter. This is a ten year story, and I think the markets are starting to recognize that particularly as earnings come in. And there have been some disappointing numbers in recent days.

We also have an incredibly precarious geopolitical situation out there right now. And with Kamala Harris making gains now in the presidential race and looking stronger, I think a lot of investors that may have been thinking, oh, I'm going to get Trump to administration. Maybe there's going to be tax cuts for corporates, they may be rethinking that.

So, there's just a lot in play. And of course there is also some data and this is important to suggest that there is a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

[16:05:01]

Let me say, I'm not overly worried about that. I mean, we have frankly been do I think for a bit of a slowdown. We've had an incredibly robust recovery, but I would want to see another one or two data points to support that before I would say, yes, this is -- this is a big deal. This is a recession.

TAPPER: So some economic analysts point out but the market is not the same thing as the economy.

FOROOHAR: For sure.

TAPPER: The relationship, but it's not the same thing, and they're arguing that investors are overreacting right now. You agree with that?

FOROOHAR: I do totally agree with that and I would also say there's an entire generation, multiple generations, actually the investors that have never been in the market in a period of rising interest rates.

So they look at you know, over four 4 percent, in interest rates and say, oh, my gosh, this is falling. And we need to lower them again. Well, you know, let's -- let's take it one step at a time. This Fed has been very focused on main mainstream, very focused on making sure that inflation doesn't hit working people in their pocketbooks.

And I think that that is where the emphasis should be. Investors have made a lot of money in recent years. You know, we're talking not about losses right now. We're talking about gains being given back. And I would note that aside from tech stocks and some of the other sectors, there were even at the end of this trading day, some gains in areas like industrials, real estate.

So the sky is not falling yet, and I'm not too worried about Wall Street becoming poor.

TAPPER: So you noted the focus on inflation from the Fed and average Americans already have been feeling the impacts of inflation for a long time. How worried should average Americans be about the prospect of bigger economic problems, including a potential recession?

FOROOHAR: I'm not overly worried about a recession yet. I want to see 1, 2 more months of data. Do I think that the Fed is probably going to err on the side of caution and were going to see some rate cuts through throughout the rest of the year? Yeah, for sure. We're not -- I don't think were going to see any kind of emergency meeting. I don't think were even going to see necessarily a half-point rate cut, which is what Wall Street has been calling for.

I just think were in an environment where the conversation has changed. As Julia said earlier, and there's a balance. There's always been a balanced between the interests of Main Street, inflation, Wall Street wanting low rates for stocks to go up, and the Fed is trying to juggle all that right now.

TAPPER: Some argue that because Vice President Kamala Harris's personal approached economics is still largely undefined that they have questions about that. We did see today. She added White House economic aide Gene Sperling to her campaign, who obviously worked for Biden, Obama, Bill Clinton.

Given the state of the markets, what else do you think she needs to do to show that she has a team that investors can be confident about, she has a plan?

FOROOHAR: Great question. First of all, I'm bullish on the addition of Gene Sperling. I think that that sends good signs about the care economy. I think that were going to see child tax credit issues really being front and center. This is somebody that's managed the rollout of fiscal stimulus.

It's -- to me, that says, yes, this is a vote for narrowing any kind of gap between the Biden administration and a potential Harris administration. I think she needs to continue to narrow that gap. I think that by and large, even though Biden himself may not have been a popular candidate, people have felt the most robust recovery in the rich world over the last few years.

And I think if she can find new ways to message that and really draw that point home, that will be a good thing.

TAPPER: All right. Rana Foroohar, thanks so much.

FOROOHAR: Thank you.

TAPPER: Let's turn to another big story in our show today, the 2024 lead. It is decision time for Vice President Kamala Harris as she weighs who should be her running mate. In these final hours of her selection process, multiple sources are telling CNN that the vice president is focused on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

CNN's MJ Lee is live for us in Philly where Harris is going to hold her first rally with her running mate tomorrow. I should note were going to do the show -- we're going to do the lead from Philly tomorrow because of this big announcement.

MJ, what can you tell us about where things stand with this pick?

MJ LEE, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Jake, as you know, in recent days, we've really been talking about three names in particular as being those finalists that the vice president could choose from. Josh Shapiro, Tim Walz, and Mark Kelly, and Jamie Gangel are being told by sources that in the final hours of this election process, the vice president has been training her focus on two names, Josh Shapiro and Tim Walz.

Now to be very clear, this does not mean we are told that Mark Kelly has been taken off the table. In fact, we are told that he still remains one of the three finalists and all three, of course, met in person with the vice president yesterday at her residence. This has been such an intensive process that has moved at such speed and unusual feet at that.

And we know that she has been weighing questions like who could actually help her win, who could be a successful governing partner for her. We also know that she has been presented with a ton of research and data and pulling materials by her vetting team.

[16:10:04]

Now, the one question that notably only she can answer is really the question of personal chemistry. Who does she mesh well with? Who does she like? Who does she feel like could be a trustworthy partner.

Tomorrow night, we will see them as you mentioned, together at a joint rally. And then after that, they're really going to be hitting the road together, seven cities in five different states, we are told all total. This, of course, is all a part of the effort to capitalize its on the momentum that Democrats have really felt ever since President Biden dropped out 15 days ago, Jake.

TAPPER: That was only 15 days ago?

All right. MJ Lee, thanks so much.

LEE: Yeah.

TAPPER: Let's bring in our political panel to discuss. So as the Harris campaign decides which running mate they're going to pick and which is going to help her get to 270 electoral votes, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie thinks there is a clear choice just across the Delaware river. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), FORMER NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR: It should be Josh Shapiro. I don't think this is a hard choice. He's a very talented politician. He's extraordinarily popular, 65 percent job approval in the state she needs to win.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: How important do you think that argument is that -- I don't even know it's a proven fact, but the idea that Josh Shapiro was so popular in Pennsylvania and she needs to win Pennsylvania where last time I saw it was pretty much neck and neck with Trump?

JEFF MASON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, REUTERS: Well, I think it's definitely one of the reasons that he's in the final list. In addition to the fact that they have some chemistry and they have some history from both having been attorneys general, but it's a pivotal state. And the fact that he is popular and that their policies align is huge and Pennsylvania is the state that Biden needed to win if he had stayed in the race, that Kamala Harris needs to win now as the Democratic candidate. And for that matter, that Donald Trump would need to win as well.

TAPPER: So over the weekend, there was an article in politico in which the Junior Senator from Pennsylvania, John Fetterman's aides made it clear that he is not a huge fan of Shapiro as a pick. Quote, Fetterman's advisers suggested to Harris his team that the senator believes that Shapiro is excessively focused on his own personal ambitions. I can't believe an ambitious politician, shocking, shocking thing.

But I mean, it doesn't help to have you know, a senator from your own party in your own commonwealth, bad mouthing you as a potential pick.

MO ELLEITHEE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE OF POLITICS & PUBLIC SERVICE: I -- look, I don't know anything about this process, but I would be shocked if that pushes Kamala Harris away from Josh Shapiro. I don't know that she's going to pick him. But here's what I do believe that Democrats are hungry to beat Donald Trump. That is first and foremost on their minds.

She's got three candidates here in front of her that you can make a compelling argument, can help with that. And that's the number one rule, job of a running mate in the campaign, at least phase of this whole process is to help you win. If Shapiro can help her win a point or two in Pennsylvania, that could be enough. If Walz can help her win a point or two in Minnesota or Kelly in Arizona that could be enough.

And so, I'm fairly confident that, yeah, you're going to have people taking pot shots at some of the candidates, right now in favor of their favorite candidate. But once she makes the choice, I think all that that dies down and the party coalesces behind the entire ticket.

TAPPER: I don't know that that's true because I've seen a lot of criticism and I've heard it described as unfair criticism of Josh Shapiro for his -- as far as I can tell, the same exact position on Israel that Walz and Scott Kelly have, but perhaps because his last name is Shapiro. It's coming from some people in the Democratic Party.

What do you think? Do you think that one of these candidates, one of these potential running mates could actually be a liability in any way or no?

ERIN PERRINE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I don't. But the first rule of a VP pick is do no harm. And that's got to be Kamala's first focus. Yes, getting along with someone and having a good personal relationship is very important. Somebody she believes can serve on day one is also critical.

But electorally speaking, and the perfect example of this is 2012, whoever she picks, maybe a point or two, but I think that's being extremely generous because in 2012, Barack Obama won Wisconsin and the native son, Paul Ryan, was on a ballot.

ELLEITHEE: Right.

PERRINE: He won the first congressional district.

TAPPER: Right.

PERRINE: And Paul Ryan, also one that ticket, people saw, hey, I want him as my congressman, but not as my vice president. It really is very marginal -- marginal at this point in history, how much of that electorally moves the man.

TAPPER: Meanwhile, J.D. Vance's wife, Usha, sat down for her first solo interview. She sat down with Fox and she was asked about the cause I mentioned her husband is made about childless cat ladies running the Democratic Party and all that.

Here's part of what she had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

USHA VANCE, SEN. J.D. VANCE'S WIFE: He made a quip in service of making a point that he wanted to make that was substantive, and it had actual meaning. And I -- I just wish sometimes that people would talk about those things and that we would spend a lot less time just sort of going through this three-word phrase or that three-word phrase because what he was really saying is that it can be really hard to be a parent in this country.

[16:15:11]

And sometimes our policies are designed in a way that make it even harder.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: What do you think?

PERRINE: I think she's a great humanizing voice for Senator Vance. She talked about the fact that they worked on the convention speech together, and she would say, oh, include this personal story. I think all of us can speak that when were in politics, sometimes

having a partner, a spouse who's a good sounding board for your thoughts and how you want to convey yourself is so important. She did a great job.

I think the biggest mistake right now is they should have had her do this the morning after his convention speech and show more of who he is and try to blunt some of this on the front end, instead of letting it get away from them the way they did.

TAPPER: Former President Trump narrowly lost the state of Georgia as we all recall, in 2020. This weekend, he rallied his supporters in Atlanta and there he repeatedly attacked the very popular Republican governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, as well as the secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Your Governor Kemp and Raffensperger, they are doing everything possible to make 2024 difficult for Republicans to win. Kemp is very bad for the Republican Party, he wouldn't do anything. He could have ended the travesty with a phone call because I did nothing wrong and neither did all of those good people that are being persecuted. He's a disloyal guy and he's a very average governor. Little Brian, little Brian Kemp, bad guy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: I mean, a few weeks ago, I would've said its Donald Trumps race to lose but he really looks like he's trying to lose it.

MASON: I was just going to say I remember asking President Trump a question wants on the tarmac of some play -- with some state, it may have been Arizona in the 2020 campaign about his strategy. What's your strategy behind calling then Vice President Biden a criminal? If I were sitting next to him or in a pool spray with him now, I would say, what is your strategy for criticizing the popular governor of Georgia, which is a state that you need to win?

TAPPER: Yeah.

MASON: And he needs to win it and I don't know what that strategy is, other than a strategy of grievance which is a part of who Donald Trump is. But it's not going to help him in a state that he needs to get the electoral votes.

TAPPER: We were told that he -- that he the horrible assassination attempt on his life had changed him and he had -- he was a person and he was pivoting to this new person and that does not sounds like a pivot.

PERRINE: This sounds like the Donald Trump we've all grown to know over the years and his team really did lean in aggressively at the convention saying this is different. And I can tell you having been there, it did feel different.

TAPPER: Sure.

PERRINE: In those days leading up to the speech and in the first part of his speech.

But at this point, Trump probably feels internally like he's good in Georgia. He holds grudges, he holds grievances, and until there's a reason to have a reconciliation, he's not going to. So, until he feels like he probably need something from Kemp, he's not going to lean into saying anything nice about him.

But let's be clear, Georgia is a state they need to be putting in the resources into and be paying attention and get that ground game moving, because this election is coming up faster than they know, and that's going to be a competitive state.

ELLEITHEE: And remember, this doesn't just have implications at the top of the ticket. This has implications down ballot, and we saw that in 2020 --

TAPPER: Right.

ELLEITHEE: -- when 30,000 people in Georgia voted straight Republican ticket, except at the top of the ticket, right? They voted for members of Congress, for Senate, but they did not vote for Donald Trump.

Now they're basically saying, right, I mean, besides what Trump said, the state party chairman told former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan he had to leave the party, you're basically saying to those 30,000 people and people like them all over the country, we don't want your vote at all.

If I'm working for Republican congressional candidates, Senate candidates around the country, I want them to stop.

TAPPER: Yeah, that's certainly not helpful, whatever you think about it.

Thanks to you all.

And, again, join us tomorrow, THE LEAD live from Philly. I'm going to head back to my hometown. Vice President Kamala Harris is going to announce her running mate. We're going to be live at the rally site at Temple University starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

Forecasters are warning about catastrophic and unprecedented flooding has Tropical Storm Debby pounds the southeastern United States. We're live on the ground there, next.

Plus, how exactly did last weeks massive prisoner swap unfold? When did the White House know that the Americans would definitely coming home? The man at the center of the negotiations is going to join us live ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [16:23:22]

TAPPER: We have breaking news in the national lead.

Hurricane Debby is now a tropical storm, but it still destructive and deadly killing at least four people. Near Tampa, a Mississippi man lost his life when his tractor trailer plunged off a wet highway bridge, a 13-year-old boy was killed when high winds pushed a tree onto his family's mobile home, that was in Levy County, not far from Debby's landfall in Florida's Big Bend, thats where the panhandle meets the peninsula.

Other states are now bracing for this slow moving super soaker already producing historic flooding.

CNN's Isabel Rosales has more for us now from Savannah, Georgia, where this city alone could get a month's worth of rain in a single day.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISABEL ROSALES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pounding rain, whipping winds, powerful current -- Tropical Storm Debby, no longer a hurricane after making landfall this morning as a category one storm.

The Big Bend of Florida seeing first impact.

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R), FLORIDA: We have seen significant storm surge. We have seen inundation. We have seen and well continue to see flooding in very parts of the state of Florida.

ROSALES: But Debby still bring life-threatening storm surges and rain as it crawls inland, more than a months worth of rain has already fallen in Florida, triggering at least ten flash flood warnings.

DESANTIS: There's going to be a lot of water that's going to be dumped throughout the state and were going to see effects of that, not just today, but in the ensuing days.

ROSALES: The rain will likely be Debby's biggest danger, strong winds and potential tornadoes will continue to be a threat.

[16:25:01]

The first confirmed dead from the storm, a Florida teen crushed by a tree that fell on his mobile home. A tractor trailer driver lost control on a wet roadway near Tampa, plunging off a bridge and into a canal is the second death blamed on Debby severe weather conditions.

JAY MELDER, SAVANNAH CITY MANAGER: This is a once in a thousand-year potential rainfall event.

ROSALES: Debby is slowing down in speed and officials expressing concern over the amount of rain forecasts as it continues into Georgia and South Carolina.

Residents in Savannah bracing for unprecedented flooding where they could see 20 inches of rain two to three days.

CHESTER ELLIS, CHAIRMAN, CHATHAM COUNTY, GEORGIA: This type of rain hovering over us, coming with intensity that they tell us that its coming its going it's going to catch a whole lot of people by surprise.

ROSALES: As Florida continues to clean up, the storm didn't wash up when rather unusual find, $1 million worth of cocaine near the Florida Keys, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROSALES (on camera): And, Jake, Savannah City officials are warning folks to prepare for flooding that they've never before seen in their lifetime, and a sign that people are taking this very seriously, is that cities for sandbag locations actually ran out of supplies yesterday. As you can see, they have sense replenished at it even under this intense rainfall, people are coming out here with their families, with their children filling up the sandbags to protect their property -- Jake.

TAPPER: All right. Isabel, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Coming up next, a CNN exclusive interview with the man at the center of last week's massive prisoner swap that led to the return of Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva. What really happened behind the scenes of these negotiations?

You'll see him right there with the beard and the glasses on the left side of your screen. That's Roger Carstens and we're going to talk to him next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:31:13]

TAPPER: We have a good news story for you in our world lead.

Right now, Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva names that we've been reporting on for years in some cases are all in the United States.

Back home with their loved ones. They're actually right now recovering at an Army base in Texas, re-acclimating to life after being part of the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the Cold War.

Joining us now for an exclusive TV interview, someone who was integral in orchestrating the incredibly delicate prisoner swap, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, Roger Carstens, it's so good to have you on here, Mr. Ambassador.

Thanks so much for being here.

And for people who don't know -- you were originally in the Trump administration. And you were a holdover and Biden to his credit, kept you -- you were doing a good job for Trump and kept you and you're doing the same job for Biden.

How are they doing? How are Evan and Paul Whelan and Alsu doing now that they're free?

ROGER CARSTENS, SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ENVOY FOR HOSTAGE AFFAIRS: Yes. Funny, I'm torn between saying that they're doing great and the other part wants to let them tell their own stories. But from what I saw, I've witnessed people that are reconnecting with their families. They're decompressing. They're starting to make sense of their captivity and their freedom.

And it's really fun, interesting, and beautiful to watch. But my sense is that they're doing pretty good right now.

TAPPER: In the last few critical hours of the deal, until the plane landed and they were escorted off and in the United States custody. Were you fearful that it might fall apart? It might fall through?

CARSTENS: You know, we've talked about this for united, that its never over until they step off onto that term, tarmac on U.S. soil. And I think everyone's trying to make sure they dot the I's and cross the T's at the transition point to make sure that you're getting the right people, the right numbers, and everything.

Everyone's trying to confirm and verify. But I think I can say that the negotiating team that made up of our intelligence community, Jake Sullivan, Secretary Blinken, everyone who threw themselves into this. And this was a whole of government effort, did such amazing work that this is one that I actually felt reasonably comfortable as the swap was coming together at the target location.

TAPPER: In May, you describe watching previous reunions between hostages and their families as, quote, emotional and almost too intimate to watch. What was the most memorable moment of Thursday night to you?

CARSTENS: You know, Jake, it was the same one. But this time, all of America got to witness what I've had a chance to see before when the plane landed at Andrews Air Force Base, the president, the vice president, met.

Every one is they came down the stairways and then the families met, crashed into each other. Everyone in America, around the world had a chance to see what I've been privileged to see, and that is a son meeting its mother, I think that beautiful scene where Evan's picking his mother up and let her off her feet. You know, Alsu meeting Pavel and her two daughters, Paul Whelan, reconnecting with Elizabeth.

I mean, that's something that I've had a chance to see and now, everyone's had a chance to see that special moment.

TAPPER: Did the U.S. make the assessment that encouraging Germany to release the Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov to achieve the swap would not ultimately put people in danger? I mean, how does that work?

Obviously, just to put people know, one -- the Russians wanted this guy, this hitman, this Russian hitman who killed a Chechen in Germany -- on German soil. And it was in a German prison. The Russians wanted him that was part of the deal.

And ultimately, Olaf Scholz had to do something tough and Biden -- President Biden had to appeal to the Germans, please do this so we can get our people home is, I mean, is he still a dangerous guy?

CARSTENS: Yeah. It's hard to determine what he's going to do in the future. I mean, obviously, we hope he goes back and does nothing. There a phrase that the moral imperative outweighs the moral hazard.

[16:35:02]

We knew -- we knew that trait in trading him, we would get X number of people back and that was a good thing provable that day.

What happens in the future with him? We don't know. We can hope we can take different mitigation steps to hopefully make sure that he behaves himself as life goes forward. But you always assume a risk in these situations and the president has been willing to and make these hard decisions.

The prime minister of, of course, Germany was willing to make that, and we just have to push on. We got the bottom line is it was a good day. We have Russian dissidents returning Vladimir Kara-Murza and three Americans coming home to America.

I think we need to be proud of what were able to accomplish as not only an administration but also U.S. working with partners and allies across the world and make it happen.

TAPPER: So your job is to find out what is the deal that will get these Americans home and then you go to Jake Sullivan, the National Security Council, Secretary of State Blinken, President Biden, you say here is what it is. They have to make the tough calls whether or not drug dealers, murderers, money, whatever is released.

What do you say to the criticism from Republicans like Lindsey Graham, for example, who say this is just going to encourage Putin to take more Americans hostage?

CARSTENS: Now the funny thing is, it's just not proving true. I mean, there was a time when I 54 cases and now down to just over 20. So we've made harsh changes. We've traded some bad people to get good people, innocent people back.

And you would think that my numbers would be skyrocketing up and yet they're not. They're going in the opposite direction.

So the math proves that assertion to be wrong when we make these hard decisions and the president makes the tough call to descend someone back in a trade like this, our numbers are actually going down.

Yeah, and they're all over the world. The ones, the 20 or so, they're still there in China, there are five joint American, Israeli citizens being held by Hamas in Gaza. There's an American school teacher named Marc Fogel. He's not been officially designated as wrongfully detained.

His sister Anne told CNN, she still hasn't heard from President Biden. Do you think the president is going to reach out to the family at any point? I mean, what can you tell us about the Marc Fogel case?

CARSTENS: I would never want to speak for the president of the United States, but I would say that we've made calls on the Russians to release Marc Fogel on humanitarian grounds. We've brought back people that were not wrongful detainees.

I think four in Venezuela. We've brought back one on this recent efforts.

So just because someone's not necessarily designated grumble doesn't mean that we're not also trying to work behind the scenes to bring them home as well.

TAPPER: And the president is working hard to get those five Americans being kept in captivity by Hamas in Gaza?

CARSTENS: Absolutely. That's a full-court press by the entire United States government. CIA Director Bill Burns, my boss, Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the president, everyone is pushing hard to try to bring those Americans home.

TAPPER: Well, I know how much joy you brought to so many people and, you know, we cover these stories. We don't often get to cover the good news stories on this show. But when we do often, you're at the other end of the table.

Roger Carstens, thank you for what you do.

CARSTENS: Thanks a lot, Jake. Appreciate it.

TAPPER: And coming up in the next hour, we're going to talk to Alsu Kurmasheva, the Russian-American journalist who was released in last weeks prisoner swap after more than a year in a Russian prison. Again, that interview is coming up today in the 5:00 p.m. hour.

Coming up next, the brand new scene, an investigation after months of fighting Hamas in Gaza. How much progress has Israel made in actually eliminating the existence of these terrorists? We're going to dig into a possible resurgence of Hamas. That's ahead.

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[16:42:31]

TAPPER: Our world lead now, Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu were determined to eliminate Hamas following the terrorist groups brutal attacks on Israel on October 7th, CNN has taken and the time to analyze the military actions to achieve that goal.

And our Tamara Qiblawi finds that the attacks to destroy Hamas have also spurred new fighters, new terrorists, to join their ranks.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TAMARA QIBLAWI, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIONS REPORTER (voice-over): Israeli soldiers in Gaza fighting street by street, house by house in Israel's longest war in decades. The goal, they say, to destroy any semblance of Hamas. Netanyahu is message is clear.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: We are fighting. And we are winning.

Goals including the elimination of Hamas.

We are going to win with all of our force. Are you ready?

SOLDIERS: Yes!

QIBLAWI: The destruction of Hamas, imminent, the objective, within reach.

But the data paints a very different picture. CNN, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Institute for the Study of War, all comb through thousands of claims, by the IDF, and Hamas's military wing, Qassam brigades. What we found was evidence of a significant Hamas resurgence.

Have a look at the Gaza Strip. Israel believes there are 24 Hamas battalions spread throughout the territory. We analyzed 16 of these in northern and central Gaza, the most targeted areas in Israel's nine month offensive.

Our research shows that out of these 16, only two have been destroyed, nine degraded, but still functional, five are currently combat effective, able to carry out missions against Israeli forces. Even as Israel uses its full military might, Hamas has been able to partially rebuilt and nearly half of these battalions and it says, it's replenishing its ranks.

ABU OBAIDA, AL QASSAMS BRIGADES SPOKESPERSON: We have been able, with God's help, to recruit thousands of new fighters.

QIBLAWI: A high-ranking Israeli officers told CNN they agree.

HIGH RANKING ISRAELI ARMY OFFICER: Everywhere Hamas rears its head, we will enter. Can this ping pong stay forever? No. Our society is not built for this, and neither is the international community.

QIBLAWI: Take a look at Jabalia, where Israel's problems are laid bare. Back in December, Israel declared the three battalions stations here destroyed.

[16:45:00]

In May, less than six months later, Israeli forces faced fierce fighting by all three battalions, now, as a guerrilla force emerging from the rubble.

We see this scenario play out across Gaza. The IDF says it has killed or captured more than 14,000 Hamas combatants as well as half of the military leadership, including its top commander, Muhammad Deif, but Hamas continues to recruit, to regroup, to regenerate.

Military experts we spoke to say Israel's heavy handed bombing campaign has accelerated Hamas's recruitment from among the civilian population.

Retired U.S. Colonel Peter Mansoor helped lead the 2007 surge in Iraq considered one of the most successful counter insurgencies in U.S. history.

COL. PETER MANSOOR, U.S. ARMY (RET.): The fact that they're still in Gaza, still trying to root out elements of the Hamas battalions shows me that Prime Minister Netanyahu is wrong. The ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting forces is undiminished.

QIBLAWI: Is this an unwinnable war, would you say?

MANSOOR: This conflict will only end with a political solution. It won't end with a military victory.

QIBLAWI: Netanyahu faces growing pressure over the spiraling humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, and around 115 Israeli hostages who remain there.

More than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to health authorities, Gaza has been largely destroyed. Yet Hamas's hold over the territory endures.

Tamara Qiblawi, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: And we thank Tamara Qiblawi for her reporting.

Responding to CNN's report after it was published, the Israeli military rejected the findings, arguing that the majority of Hamas's brigades had been, quote, dismantled and at most battalions were, quote, at a low level of readiness, unquote, and unable to function as a military framework.

But it is important to point out that the analysis in this report relied on U.S. military definitions, which differ from those used by the IDF.

Joe Biden won Arizona by less than half a point in 2020. So how are voters in that crucial battleground state feeling now that Vice President Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket? Well, our own John King went to find out in the latest report from his "All Over the Map" series, which is next.

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[16:51:57]

TAPPER: Arizona is on the list of battleground states Vice President Kamala Harris will visit later this week. It's a state that Joe Biden barely won, but he won it, flipping it blue in 2020. Harris is bringing new energy to the state, her supporters say, but will that be enough? Especially in light of the Biden-Harris administration's unpopular policies and Arizona regarding the border?

Well, CNN's John King went to Arizona for his series "All Over the Map".

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pablo Kuria (ph) and Jacob Dials also walked these streets in 2020 when Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,000 votes. This year, things were looking rough, but now this handout is keepsake.

Ever had a campaign year like this?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ever had a campaign year like?

JACOB DIALS, RAZE CANVASSING MANAGER: No.

KING: A new version with Kamala Harris is at the print shop.

DIALS: Now were hearing conversations about like how I already told my friends, my family, my neighbor to go out and vote versus yeah, I'm going to go out and vote probably.

KING: The canvassers or more excited. Democratic voters, too.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's palpable. Now, there's excitement and if you can throw excitement on top of duty, there is something closer to home with Harris at the top of the ticket.

DIALS: It's way easier to support a candidate who can actually see go out and campaign and you like, you have the energy around you.

KING: Melissa Cordero is proof of the new energy. She's much more active, she says, since her phone started humming at late July Sunday, Biden stepped aside.

MELISSA CORDERO, ARIZONA VOTER: I mean, just red dots all over my phone screen, you know, everybody's like, did you -- did you -- you know, did you see this?

KING: Cordero is an Air Force veteran, active in a group called Common Defense. She was loyal to Biden when we first visited four months ago, excited to work with fellow veterans and other friends to back Harris.

CORDERO: Now, not all veterans are for Trump. Now, all veterans are MAGA crazies, Second Amendment people. There are ones out there that truly believe in democracy. And we want things like reproductive freedom.

I think Kamala coming in and has brought this just -- just energy that wasn't there.

NICO RIOS, ARIZONA VOTER: There's a lot of --

KING: Nico Rios (ph) was too young to vote in 2020, but supported Biden. He's 19 now, compares Trumpism to fascism, eager to vote but not for Harris.

RIOS: I can't commit to the Democrats. I used to think that they were better. I just don't.

KING: Rios sees both Harris and Trump as too harsh on asylum seekers and other migrants. His biggest issue is the Hamas-Israel conflict. Rios supports a socialist candidate who opposes any aid to Israel.

RIOS: There's nothing that Kamala can do in the next, what, two to three months that can wash out blood from her hands in my view.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING (on camera): Well, Jake, here's something to watch as the campaign plays out -- there's just no question being on the ground. Democratic enthusiasm is up, way up. But is it enough? That's the question.

A lot of young voters in Arizona, a lot of independents in Arizona have been showing disproportionate interest in voting third party this year. There's some indication Harris is getting another look. Maybe that third party interests will drop, keep an eye on that as we proceed and well see whether Arizona truly remains a battleground.

TAPPER: All right. John King, all over the map, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

[16:55:00]

Coming up, a CNN exclusive, we can't wait to bring you American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva. She's going to join us live just days after her release from a Russian prison.

Stay with us.

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