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The Lead with Jake Tapper

U.S. Official: Russia Potentially Misidentified Azerbaijan Airlines Jet As A Ukrainian Drone; Christmas Even Stowaway Caught On Delta Flight In Seattle; Trump Appears To Post Private Message To Musk; CDC: Bird Flu In First Severe Human Case Shows Mutations; Inside The Drone Factory Fueling Moscow's Offensive On Ukraine. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired December 27, 2024 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:00:06]

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: Honestly, that's really become a tradition.

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.

DEAN: Andy and Anderson, it's a great New Year's tradition.

I'm Jessica Dean for myself and Erica Hill, thanks so much for watching today. I'll be back tomorrow from 4:00 to 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Thanks for watching today.

THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER starts right now.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Quote, I wasn't even sure that I would stay alive.

THE LEAD starts right now.

Those words from the survivor of that Azerbaijan Airlines crash on Christmas day. This, as investigators find a second black box. Just in from U.S. officials, what Russia may have mistaken the passenger jet for.

Plus, a second stowaway. Delta Airlines under major security scrutiny after a person with no ticket or boarding pass gets on a flight. Second time this has happened on Delta in just five weeks.

And mutation. Health officials discovered changes to the virus in the person who currently has the most severe case of bird flu in the United States. What could that mean for human to human spread of the illness? Two of the nation's leading health experts join THE LEAD this hour.

(MUSIC)

MATTINGLY: Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Phil Mattingly, in for Jake Tapper.

We start this hour with new details in the deadly Christmas Day plane crash in Kazakhstan. A suspicion rises about Russia's possible involvement. A U.S. official tells CNN Russia's air defenses potentially misidentified the jet as a Ukrainian drone. This, as Azerbaijan Airlines says, an early investigation shows the jet crashed after experiencing a, quote, physical and technical, external interference. The Kazakh state media reports it will take two weeks for investigators to uncover any potential clues from two black boxes recovered from the wreckage.

The intensifying investigation that comes as the mourning continues for the 38 people killed in this disaster. Miraculously, 29 people survived, including the praying passenger who recorded what he thought were his final words.

The man told "Reuters" the plane started acting, quote, unnaturally after hearing a loud bang. This is how he described the moment when the plane hit the ground.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SUBHONKUL RAKHIMOV, PLANE CRASH SURVIVOR (through translator): I was conscious when I felt the impact. I was thrown up, hit down, thrown up again. I was strapped in. I was being thrown back and forth.

It all lasted a few seconds and then everything went quiet and silence. Everything was quiet, calm. And I realized that was it. We had landed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: To his surprise, he came out unharmed. A sliver of positive news. But there are still so many questions over how and why this tragedy happened at all.

CNN's Oren Liebermann reports on the latest in the investigation.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): From the fiery wreckage, a key piece of the puzzle emerges. The second black box recovered from the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines J28243. Authorities now have two key pieces of information the instrument readings and the cockpit voice recording.

MAJ. MIKE LYONS, U.S. ARMY (RET.): I do think that will show that the pilots will say that they were hit with something that came out of nowhere. Likely air defense systems and the pilots miraculously were able to save the passengers there.

LIEBERMANN: On board the doomed jet, this passenger prayed for that miracle. Recording this video in the flight's final moments.

At least 38 of the 67 people on board the flight died in the crash. This man was one of the survivors.

RAKHIMOV (through translator): I started saying words. I started to remember the Almighty. I thought that those were probably my last words. So I thought, I need to get ready for a meeting with the Almighty.

LIEBERMANN: The airline says an early investigation shows the jet that crashed on Christmas day experienced what they called physical and technical external interference, though the cause of the crash has not been confirmed, potential evidence of the interference visible even after the crash, with holes peppering the remains of the fuselage. A U.S. official says the early indication is that a Russian air defense system struck and downed the passenger jet.

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: The amount of holes in the side of the airplane in the aft part of the airplane tells me that this was an air defense system, and certainly not a bird strike.

LIEBERMANN: The Azerbaijan Airlines flight took off from the capital of Baku and was supposed to land in Grozny, in the Russian republic of Chechnya, before it diverted to Kazakhstan. In the hours before the crash, Russia's air defenses in the region were active, trying to repel a long range Ukrainian drone attack. The U.S. official says Russian air defense units potentially misidentified the commercial airliner, believing it was an attack drone instead of a passenger jet. That confusion may have proven deadly.

MILES OB'BRIEN, CNN AEROSPACE ANALYST: In this case, the aircraft had what we call a missed approach, which means it would have had a deviation from the norm, and so the aircraft would have been in a place that they would not have expected it.

[16:05:03]

And in a hair trigger environment, that could have led to what you saw.

LIEBERMANN: The debris from the crash littered a field, the blue cloths each covering a body. The search for evidence now running together with the hunt for answers.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIEBERMANN (on camera): There is already a joint investigation between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia into the cause of the crash. The U.S. says they are ready and willing to assist, but there is no indication yet that they have been taken up on that offer.

Phil, this is definitely a space to watch. Russia quickly put out what has been a very quickly dismissed explanation of bird strikes that may have led to the crash, so it will be worth watching if there's any willingness to accept any sort of responsibility if the -- if the going theory right now points to that air defense system taking down this aircraft.

MATTINGLY: Oren Liebermann at the Pentagon, thank you.

Let's hear now from former FAA safety inspector and CNN analyst David Soucie, and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor. Bill, you know, to the last point that Oren was making there, a U.S.

official telling CNN that Russia's air defenses potentially misidentified the plane as a Ukrainian drone. The diplomatic situation in the region right now, obviously there is a hot war ongoing. This is a conflict zone.

How does that impact efforts to investigate what actually happened here?

WILLIAM TAYLOR, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE: Well, it is a war zone. And we have to remember, Phil, that this is this war is a war that Russia started about 1,039 days ago, and that the Ukrainians have been fighting it ever since then. And they've been trying -- the Ukrainians have been trying to stop the Russians from that invasion. And one of the ways that they do that is to shoot at military targets in Russia. And that, apparently, is what was going on there.

But the basic cause of this tragedy is Russia's war. Now, Russia's war is going to make it difficult to investigate. But you're right, the accountability needs to be established.

MATTINGLY: It's certainly something I think international officials are looking for right now. Questions about how fulsome it will end up being.

David, investigators there going through two recovered black boxes, instrument readings, the cockpit voice recording. Well, if you were involved here, what clues would you look for, for -- from this evidence?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST: Well, I think the first thing we'd look for is the black box is capable of -- the flight data recorder is capable of monitoring not only the movement from the controls, but how the airplane reacts to those movements. So what they'd be looking for initially is the separation between that. If you turn left, does it actually turn left if it turns right, that sort of thing. So that's one of the things we'd look for.

But even without that, at this point, there's plenty of evidence suggesting that the something from the external forces, as they said very diplomatically, but those external forces caused hydraulic failure. And you can see that in the flight path of the aircraft, that it was just totally difficult and almost impossible to maintain exact control of that airplane.

MATTINGLY: Yeah. Diplomatically, potentially euphemistically, on some level as well.

Bill, there's the obvious concern in moments like this about possible misinformation coming from the Kremlin trying to hide the true cause of the crash. It's obviously something with precedent, because that's how Russia created confusion about the cause of the 2014 Malaysia Airlines crash in Ukraine, which was found to be shot down by Russian aligned forces.

This latest crash, what does Russia have to gain from a disinformation campaign?

TAYLOR: So Russia is struggling on a number of fronts. Putin has got has had a rough couple of weeks here. Yeah, he's got Syria as the problem. He's got trouble getting troops, getting soldiers. So much so that he's got to go to North Korea to get soldiers in, to try to help him move the Ukrainians out of -- of Russia, where they're holding territory.

So he's had tough time. He's on his back foot being defensive. There's some talk of negotiations. And so he wants not to be seen as the problem. And this is clearly a Russian problem.

MATTINGLY: David, Azerbaijan Airlines says an early investigation. You mentioned it earlier that shows the jet experienced physical, technical, external interference. When you look at the video and the images of the wreckage, one of the things that come to mind is the pilots that were involved here. The damage looks very similar to shrapnel or debris. There's been no confirmation what caused the holes we've seen in the fuselage, but actually landing this plane to the degree they were able to do so flying it afterwards.

What kind of effort would that take?

SOUCIE: Well, at this point, if the hydraulics are out, you're physically pulling on the controls. You literally have to put your feet on the control yoke or on the control panel to try to pull back hard enough to get the physical response that you need to have. And so it is an incredible feat to be able to do that.

They also used the throttle controls to control the left and right. If your ailerons aren't working, you have to use more right throttle to get it to go left and et cetera. So there's a lot of mechanisms that have to go into play, and you can tell that they've done just to get even close to the airport like they did was -- was quite a feat, was quite an effort.

[16:10:06]

And they did everything they could to make -- make it survivable.

MATTINGLY: Yeah, it appears extraordinary. David Soucie, Ambassador Bill Taylor, thanks so much.

TAYLOR: Thank you, Bill.

MATTINGLY: Well, there's another major aviation security issue we're following. This one back here in the U.S. It's kind of scary for somebody to sneak on the plane like that.

For the second time in five weeks, a stowaway makes it aboard a Delta airlines plane. What we're learning about the latest concerning breach. That's next.

And later, inside the Russian factory, pumping out thousands of drones to take aim at Ukraine. CNN investigates the major expansion and who's being recruited to work there. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our national lead, Delta is pretty clearly entering the fool me twice zone as the airline grapples with a second stowaway incident in just a matter of weeks.

The latest happened on Christmas Eve, involving a Seattle to Hawaii flight. Now, according to officials, the stowaway went through a TSA security screening but did not have a boarding pass. The unticketed passenger was discovered as Delta Flight 487 was minutes away from takeoff.

[16:15:01]

So how exactly did this happen again?

CNN's Carlos Suarez has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CARLOS SUAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A stowaway discovered again, hiding on an airplane just moments before takeoff on Christmas Eve in Seattle.

The unidentified individual cleared a standard security screening the night before the flight, bypassing identity verification and boarding status stations without a boarding pass, an airport spokesperson tells CNN.

The following afternoon, they were able to board the Delta flight, still without a boarding pass.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He must have been a sweet talker, Betty Crocker, because I don't -- I couldn't imagine how you could ever do that.

SUAREZ: When the person was discovered on board, the plane returned to the gate to remove them, according to the airport spokesperson. The suspect then ran out of the plane before police arrived and hid in a bathroom in the airport terminal. Port of Seattle police used video surveillance cameras to find and arrest the suspect.

BRADY BLY, PASSENGER ON FLIGHT 487: Nobody knew really what was going on, so we were kind of left in the dark.

SUAREZ: All passengers on board were deplaned and rescreened by TSA, delaying the flight for nearly 2.5 hours.

BLY: Which leaves you to wonder the worst. You're stuck on the plane. And you know what if there was explosives or something?

SUAREZ: The incident elevating security concerns during one of the busiest seasons for travel.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN AEROSPACE ANALYST: I understand that the Transportation Security Authority agents are besieged, but these are the areas where the system is, you know, blinking red. SUAREZ: So far, officials from the TSA, the port of Seattle and Delta

representatives have not explained how this person was able to bypass so many layers of security. Delta apologized to delayed passengers in a statement, saying, quote, there are no matters more important than safety and security. The TSA said it takes such incidents seriously and, quote, will independently review the circumstances of this incident.

O'BRIEN: I think the responsibility for these stowaway events so far has been sort of joint between the TSA for letting these individuals pass their ID check points and the airline, in this case, Delta, for not being vigilant enough at the doorway to that jet way.

SUAREZ: It's the second time in weeks that a passenger boarded a Delta flight without a ticket.

CAPTAIN PILOT: Folks, this is the captain, we are just waiting for the police to come on board.

SUAREZ: Just before Thanksgiving, a woman snuck onto a Delta flight from New York's JFK Airport to Paris. It took three attempts to get her back to the U.S. to face charges.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SUAREZ: And, Phil, it is still unclear just how many hours this unticketed passenger spent in that terminal before boarding that flight. The TSA tells us that this passenger did not have any prohibited items, and she -- or he or she rather was arrested and detained on a trespassing charge. And the person's name has not been released by authorities -- Phil.

MATTINGLY: Carlos Suarez, thanks so much.

Let's now bring in Democratic Congressman Mark DeSaulnier of California, who is a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and its subcommittee on aviation.

Congressman, appreciate your time. Just to start, how alarmed are you that the same U.S. airline has now had a stowaway make it through security and onto a flight twice in just five weeks?

REP. MARK DESAULNIER (D-CA): Well, as your report said, this is a warning sign. We had these recently with runway near-misses. So all of these things are part of what we did successfully on the committee in the House and in Congress just recently. And reauthorizing FAA, a very strong bipartisan commitment to safety.

Having said that, we have to really thoroughly look at this. There's a lot of volume. But these are unacceptable.

MATTINGLY: I think one of the biggest questions, anyone who flies or flies a lot, I know you do come back to Washington. I fly often as well. How is this possible on some level, given the number of steps you have to go through just to get into the airport? What do you think this reveals about security vulnerabilities? DESAULNIER: Well, we have to really get find out what physically

happened in both these incidents and find out where we failed. We spent a lot of money on this since 9/11.

People are flying in record amounts. The airlines have just had record volume coming out of COVID. All of that is good. We have a good safety record in the United States. But as your report said, these are warning signs that we have to delve into and find out what happened and hopefully accountable.

MATTINGLY: You mentioned the FAA reauthorization, the focus on near misses when you kind of try and look forward. You get a new Congress convenes in 10 days, 11 days.

At some point, the when you think about this issue, are you saying there should be an investigation? You want to talk to the ranking member, you want to talk to the chair and look deeper into this. Are there legislative tools that you think could be utilized to try and prevent something like this?

[16:20:02]

DESAULNIER: No. The chair, Sam Graves, Missouri, Republican and the ranking member -- Ranking Member Larson from Seattle area, they have been great on this. They've worked collaboratively for safety issues. You mentioned about near misses. We had a famous one a few years ago at SFO, San Francisco, 59 feet of what would have been the largest disaster in aviation history.

So we've worked together in this instance, were going to have to work together as well to find out what exactly happened and what needs to be corrected and hold people accountable, including TSA, but also including Delta.

MATTINGLY: I mentioned the new Congress. January 3rd is the start date. Just to spin ahead a little bit away from the topic at hand for a moment when you look forward to the new Congress, Republicans will hold the majority. It will be extremely narrow.

How do you think House Democrats should operate? Should they try and block all the big legislative issues? Do you have any idea who the speaker will be?

DESAULNIER: No, no, and I wouldn't jump out to that. Having been through the last speakers contest, I think we have to look for opportunities to work together.

I'm a very progressive member from the San Francisco Bay Area. I think I reflect my constituents have been there for ten years, been elected office for 30.

For those of us who have that kind of experience, we realize that this is a big country with different constituents in 435 districts, house districts. So we work together in good faith. We can be principled and still compromise. And that's been something that's been missing too often on the big things. So I'll look for opportunities as I always have to stand by my principles and reflect my district, but also try to respect or not try to respect people who come from different parts of the country, as long as they meet us halfway.

MATTINGLY: Congressman, I really appreciate your time. Thanks so much.

DESAULNIER: Thanks.

MATTINGLY: Well, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social today as he wanted to do, but was it actually meant to be posted on Truth Social? More on the message he sent. That's next.

Plus, the ongoing tech bros versus MAGA crowd feud.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:25:31]

MATTINGLY: In our politics lead, it is all about the billionaires. But I think one question on some level Mar-a-Lago, did President-elect Donald Trump send a coded message to Elon Musk claiming that Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, is visiting Mar-a-Lago tonight? What are we talking about? This on your screen.

Where are you? Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. When are you coming to the center of the universe, Mar-a-Lago. Bill Gates asked to come tonight. We miss you and X. X is obviously how Musk refers to his son.

I want to get straight to CNN's Alayna Treene, who is in West Palm Beach near Mar-a-Lago.

Alayna, do we have any sense of what was behind the message, who it was intended for?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well, Phil, this does read like an apparent text message, like a message intended for Elon Musk. And when I talked to Trumps advisers, I learned that it was, in fact, an apparent message for Elon Musk, which altogether is pretty funny.

But look, we did learn a few things from this. One is that the bromance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is clearly still alive and well, but also he is still, you know, supporting Elon Musk. After all of the backlash we've seen this week with, you know, musk defending H- 1B visas and his support for high skilled foreign workers.

But also, after some of the backlash we saw as well from Democrats and others kind of taunting Musk and Donald Trump, arguing that he is actually the one calling the shots, especially after that whole, you know, spending fight fiasco we saw play out last week on Capitol Hill. That's one part of this.

The other thing we saw, though, of course, is that Bill Gates is the latest, you know, major CEO or founder, we should say Microsoft founder, who is reaching out to Donald Trump and his team to try and get a meeting with him. When I talked to Trumps advisers, they said, as of now, it's unclear if the two are actually going to meet, but he is just the latest person who is trying to gain an audience with Donald Trump and kind of smooth relations before he takes office on January 20th.

MATTINGLY: The kind of like boomer text vibe aside, the most fascinating thing that's happening right now down there is the escalation. You mentioned it of the debate over the H-1B visas really exploded into a MAGA versus kind of tech bro tech billionaire fight after Vivek Ramaswamy with backing from musk, defended the visas for highly skilled foreign workers.

What's the latest you're hearing about that?

TREENE: Well, it's interesting, Phil, because you're clearly seeing this rift now kind of play out among Donald Trump supporters.

On one hand, you have some of the MAGA faithful, the people who have always been loyal to Donald Trump, in part, have been drawn to him because of his hard line immigration policies. And then on the other, you have some of these tech bros or, you know, Silicon Valley latecomers who do also support Donald Trump, but clearly they are aligned a little bit differently when it comes to this immigration issue.

Now, the one thing that we saw, I think a lot of people really take offense to is the way that Vivek Ramaswamy framed some of this today. I want to read for you what he posted on X. He wrote, quote: Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long. It went on to say: A culture that venerates Cory from 'Boy meets world' or Zach and Slater over Screech in 'Saved by the Bell', or Stefan over Steve Urkel in 'Family Matters' will not produce the best engineers."

Now, I can tell you that clearly, you know, a lot of people on the far right took issue with this. We saw people like Laura Loomer, Ann Coulter, Mike Cernovich, the conservative pundits. I can go on saying that, you know, Americans are also, you know, well-suited for a lot of these jobs. Why do we have to rely on foreign workers?

Now, the one person we haven't heard weigh in on all of this is Donald Trump. But, of course, he's going to have to address this at some point once he is in office. He's also been kind of ambiguous on this issue in the past. We know that under his first administration, you saw H-1B visas decline as well as at one point actually be delayed or stopped altogether.

But then recently, he also said that he would be open to having, you know, people who graduate from colleges in the U.S., immigrants wanting to stay. So it's kind of unclear right now where Donald Trump stands on all of this, Phil.

MATTINGLY: We'll have to wait and see. We'll check the text messages/Truth Social.

Alayna Treene in West Palm Beach, thank you so much. Let's jump straight to our panel.

Scott Jennings, I don't want to go into a deep dive of "Saved by the Bell" with you. I have no doubt you have an encyclopedic knowledge of it. It just seems like something you would have an encyclopedic knowledge of, but I think the bigger picture here, because on the policy, this is a huge issue that has long existed in terms of a division between certain parts of the Republican Party and then also on the coalition, the political coalition.

The president-elect won the popular vote, in large part because he was able to put together these two very key components of the coalition. How long standing and potentially harmful do you think this fight could get?

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, let me just start with Kelly Kapowski, if you're listening -- hi.

[16:30:03]

Number two -- number two, look, there's always been a push and pull on this in the Republican Party. And I think there's a way to work this out and solve it.

I mean, I think what a lot of people would say is. And Elon Musk was making this point, if you take, like, the top 1 percent or the top 0.1 percent of the most talented engineering people from other countries, that's perfectly fine. H-1B visas for that. They're unique. They have unique talent, unique, innovative skills. Fine.

If you're using the H-1B program to abuse it, to recruit, you know, interns, accountants, other people that easily could be recruited from the United States of America, all because you just want to do it cheaper. That's not fine. So I think what a lot of people in the party want to do is eliminate the fraud in this H-1B program, retain the top engineering talent, and there's a way to do this.

What Ramaswamy did yesterday was not a great communications exercise, and it did anger a lot of people in the president's coalition, and I think rightfully so.

MATTINGLY: You know, Kristen Soltis Anderson, to Scott's point, revising the program is a pragmatic way, I think, to try and thread the needle here on some level, tightening some of the issues. The reality is that there's a large segment of the Republican Party that doesn't want to revise the program like they want to their hard line on legal and on some level, legal or illegal and legal immigration.

I'm interested in terms of what you've seen in the numbers from the coalition. One, does this resonate? And two, can you actually find a middle ground there?

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Sure. So you may recall that in a Republican Party primary a long time ago, far away, Donald Trump once said that he wanted to build a wall and put a big, beautiful door in it. And every time that I've seen that message tested with Republicans, it does quite well.

Right now, there's a sense that the illegal immigration in our country is out of control, and therefore that needs to be the first priority. And so there is a real reluctance to embrace greater legal immigration I think until that first issue is considered a little more under control. But everything I've seen suggests that Republicans quite like the idea of America being exceptional, America being a place where the best and brightest want to come, where people are sending their best to come here.

So I think that ultimately Donald Trump has more credibility on the issue of immigration than almost any other Republican out there. If there's anybody who can probably bring these two sides together, it's him. And there is some constituency in the party for being the place that brings the best and brightest from the world around, as long as Scott said, it's not being abused.

MATTINGLY: Meghan, I will grant you that this has brought more enthusiasm for Democrats that I've seen since roughly early November -- not overwhelming enthusiasm, but just that they've actually been responding to text messages about this over the course of the last 36 hours. So I want to actually turn to something else, which was when the Senate returns, were going to see key hearings and votes for Trumps cabinet picks.

Pete Hegseth, the veteran and former Fox weekend host tapped to be secretary of defense, still seems to have an uphill confirmation battle. It seemed like he was making some progress before the break, facing the allegations of sexual misconduct, excessive drinking.

I want you to listen to what his attorney told Pamela Brown on CNN earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TIM PARLATORE, PETE HEGSETH'S ATTORNEY: The allegations of misconduct are going to be easily disproven. The fact that earlier in his life, when he was a young recent combat veteran who came home and dealt with the demons by drinking too much, you know, that's not -- you know, that's not uncommon. A lot of us went through that, you know, I went through that. A lot of my friends went through that, and a lot of us, like Pete, have overcome that. And he's been able to overcome those demons. So that which drove him to drink is not driving him anymore.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Meghan, do you think that that argument is going to get Pete Hegseth through confirmation?

MEGHAN HAYS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No, because that is one portion of the reason he is not qualified for this job. His character is one part of the incompetency which is drinking, the alleged drinking, and the alleged sexual misconduct. And then the other part is the fact that he cannot run this organization that has millions of employees. It's a multi-hundred billion dollar budget, and he's not competent in running this organization as large as the DOD. So where his drinking, I hope is under control, and he -- it's not a problem for him because that addiction is a real issue in this country. And it should be, you know, addressed and dealt with separately.

That is one portion of the reason that he is not fit to lead the DOD.

MATTINGLY: Scott, Kristin, just not a ton of time left. But I want to go to both of you on this quickly, which is Scott. Who do you think has the most difficult path forward in the confirmation process? And then once Scott's done, if we can pull this off, I feel good about us, Kristen. How much do the nominations resonate with voters?

JENNINGS: I'll just give you a quick answer. I think Gabbard has a tougher path than Hegseth. I think they both have a path to confirmation, but I think Tulsi has got a slightly tougher path.

SOLTIS ANDERSON: I think Donald Trumps got pretty good job approval when it comes to his handling of the transition thus far. So I think as long as these nominees perform reasonably well in their hearings and get across the finish line, I think even the ones that are a little bit more, say, unusual for a Republican president to pick, I don't think that they will hurt Donald Trumps image too much.

[16:35:07]

MATTINGLY: Guys, I appreciate, A, you pulling that off. B, you putting up with Scott's Kelly Kapowski commentary.

JENNINGS: Tiffany -- Tiffany, if Tiffany is watching THE LEAD, if she's watching THE LEAD.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTINGLY: I appreciate you guys very much. See you in the New Year. Thank you.

HAYS: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Well, federal health officials reveal the bird flu virus is mutating in the person with the worst case of the illness in the U.S. How concerning is this?

I'll talk with two leading health experts, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our health lead today, a concerning report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on H5N1 bird flu. A genetic analysis found the virus likely mutated in the first patient in the country to come down with a severe case of the illness, making it more transmissible to humans. Although the CDC says this case, involving a patient hospitalized in Louisiana earlier this month is not cause for alarm, some experts are raising concerns, especially as cases in the country are on the rise.

I'm joined now by Laurie Garrett, a public health expert from the Council on Foreign Relations, and Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University's School of Public Health and former White House COVID 19 response coordinator.

[16:40:03]

Laurie, I want -- I want to start with you. When it comes to the risk here, I want you to listen to something that we heard from an infectious disease expert at the UC Davis Children's Hospital.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. DEAN BLUMBERG, INFECTIOUS DISEASES EXPERT, UC DAVIS CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL: The virus may mutate and become more easily transmitted person to person. And so the more this virus circulates, and specifically co-circulating with human strains, that's going to increase the odds of the virus evolving to more human to human transmission. And that -- that, of course, could -- could signal another pandemic.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: I mean, those are the kind of words that I think send shivers up a lot of people's spines after what everybody went through. Are you concerned at all that the federal health officials are downplaying the threat here?

LAURIE GARRETT, AUTHOR, "THE COMING PLAGUE": Well, first of all, I think you need to know that there has been human to human transmission for more than 20 years of the H5N1 virus.

I have personally been in on the ground looking at outbreaks in northern Vietnam, in Bangladesh, in southern China, and in every case, what has happened is an individual acquired the infection from an animal, typically a wild bird or a chicken, and then transmitted it to their caretaker, to a loved one who was very intimately with them as they were ailing, perhaps dying.

And I also tracked an actual wedding in Vietnam, where the virus spread among the wedding party, and there were no live chickens present. No live birds. So that remains an outstanding mystery. Nevertheless, we have reason to be concerned in north America because great barriers were put up by the Bush administration when the first big mutation happened in 2005, that made the virus transform from just an Asian bird flu virus into one that transmitted into a far broader range of birds and made it up into Siberia, over into Europe, and threatened to come to the United States via Alaska.

And so the Bush administration went all out on trying to come up with surveillance up in Alaska and a bird flu plan. Unfortunately, over time and subsequent administrations, as the bird flu failed to actually materialize into a terrible epidemic, everybody let their guard down. Meanwhile, this virus has appeared and killed all sorts of mammalian species. It's no longer by any means just a bird virus, 24,000 sea lions alone died of this virus at this time last year between Argentina, Peru and Chile.

So we've had early warning and we haven't responded. Now we have a case of a recombinant form in Louisiana and a case in British Columbia, similarly, a recombinant form both produce severe illness in the individuals, and the alarm buttons are starting to go off in America.

MATTINGLY: You know, to that point, Dr. Jha, you've been inside the government. I was covering the White House when you were over there, also on the outside as well. What's your take right now on how the CDC's characterizing things, what the preparation level is?

DR. ASHISH JHA, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COVID-19 RESPONSE COORDINATOR: Yeah. First of all, Phil, thanks for having me here.

Look, I think there is concern, certainly, among public health officials both in and outside of government. We don't know the risk of this having sustained human to human transmission. That's what we worry about for causing a pandemic. But we know plenty to act now. We know plenty to up our game on detection, to up our game, on testing to make sure we have enough vaccines for Americans so that if the if the virus mutates further and starts spreading more easily, we can actually halt its spread and protect people.

So we know plenty to act and predicting exactly what the virus is going to do three, six, 12 months down the road is very hard business, but preparing is not. And that's what we got to be doing.

MATTINGLY: Dr. Jha, on an individual level is there. Are there things people should be doing right now just to be careful to prevent contracting this, if it does end up transmitting human to human?

JHA: Yeah. So right now, because we have not seen sustained human to human transmission, the main ways people are getting it is from sick birds. So if you see a sick bird, if your pet sees a sick bird when you're out for a walk, do not touch the sick bird. Do not -- do not in any way come in contact. That's probably number one.

Number two is there is so much of this virus now spreading among dairy cows. We've got to do a lot more to get those -- that virus infection under control, under dairy cows. But for humans, for people out there listening, pasteurization kills the virus. It is the best way to protect yourself. So drinking unpasteurized milk is, I think, extremely unwise at this moment.

Those are some basic things. Obviously, if we see more sustained human to human transmission, things like testing, treatments, vaccines, the whole playbook will come into play.

[16:45:09]

Those are not issues right now, but we got to be preparing for those things right now.

MATTINGLY: Laurie Garrett, Dr. Ashish Jha, really appreciate your time on Friday. Thank you.

JHA: Thank you.

GARRETT: Thank you, Phil. MATTINGLY: Well, as Russia continues to pound Ukraine with drone

attacks, CNN investigates where all those drones are coming from.

Up next, we take you inside the college turned factory where teen boys as early as the 10th grade are being recruited to make these weapons of war.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our world lead, new data showing Russia's relentless use of drones to target Ukraine. More than 1,700 so far in December, including more than 100 drone attacks on Christmas morning alone. That's part of a troubling rise in Russian drone attacks on Ukraine since just last spring, according to CNN's tally.

So where do all these drones come from?

CNN's Clare Sebastian takes us inside the factory fueling Moscow's offensive from the sky.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The caption My mom's reaction when she found out I earned more than her, cat videos TikTok memes all part of a recruitment effort funneling workers into Russia's ever expanding drone program.

[16:50:09]

The videos are made by Alabuga Polytechnic, a technical college based in at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in southern Russia, the same site identified by the White House last year as Russia's domestic Shahed factory producing Iranian-designed drones.

In February, the U.S. slapped sanctions on Alabuga, noting it exploited underage students from an affiliated polytechnic university as laborers to assemble these attack UAVs. David Albright, a former nuclear weapons inspector, has been tracking Alabuga since 2022.

DAVID ALBRIGHT, INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: The only benefit is -- is the high salary but the males get exemption from military service, and so that -- that's a drawing card.

SEBASTIAN: A Ukrainian intelligence officer only authorized to speak to CNN anonymously told us those perks come at a cost.

"OREST", UKRANIAN DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE OFFICE (through translator): All students involved in the production of these UAVs live at a separate limited access compound. Once employed, they sign NDAs. Their contracts say they produce motorboats.

SEBASTIAN: And yet, as recruitment efforts step up, this video from July allowed the facade to slip.

Thinking of starting 10th grade, says the voiceover, join the Super Elite program, air navigation, and drone programming at Alabuga Polytechnic and help the Stalin's Falcons, That's a new drone unit in the Stalin's Falcons. Pause here and you see the distinctive serial number of the Russian produced Shahed and the unit emblem.

In July, Russia fired 422 Shahed or similar drones at Ukraine. By November, it was almost six times that. Analysis of Air Force reports and official data show. To meet that demand, Shahed production at Alabuga has more than doubled this year, say CNN sources in Ukraine's Defense Intelligence. And there's a new product.

This is the Gerbera, a much cheaper copy of the Shahed pictured in a video posted in July by the Stalin's Falcons, that same drone unit. For this volunteer air defense unit in Kyiv, it's clear the cheaper copies are fueling bigger attacks.

YURIY CHUMAK, UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE VOLUNTEER: Now they send -- Russia sends every day a lot of drones. More of them are not even with the explosive things. It's just very cheap and very simple drones.

SEBASTIAN: For Yuriy Chumak, a serving Supreme Court judge by day, there's no denying the decoys are working.

CHUMAK: We cannot detect what it is. You just see that it's drones so you shall use missile or you shall use machine gun to shut down it.

SEBASTIAN: CNN's sources in Ukrainian defense intelligence believe Alabuga will produce up to 10,000 Gerberas this year alone. Analysis of downed drones shows Russia has also adapted the original Shahed, making it tougher, more weatherproof, and in some cases, deadlier. In late October, experts in Kyiv found traces of thermobaric munitions on downed Shaheds.

OLEKSIY STEPANIUK, KYIV SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF FORENSIC EXPERT (through translator): There were several of them. Their effect is that they're used as incendiary munitions. In a certain radius, they disable all equipment and people.

SEBASTIAN: Ukraine has tried hitting back. This April strike, using a modified small aircraft, blew a hole in the roof of a worker dormitory at Alabuga.

But neither that strike nor international sanctions could stop the breakneck pace of expansion here. Between March and September this year, two entirely new buildings appeared next to the original ones.

And this image from late November seems to confirm they're connected. New covered walkways link old and new buildings. Another looks set to join the factory to the worker dormitories now fully repaired.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They started to create, we thought, drone cages over the buildings. And then as they build other buildings, it looks like they're expanding the security perimeter.

SEBASTIAN: NATO told CNN it is, quote, well aware of Alabuga and expects it to ramp up production even further. This military patriotic team-building event for Alabuga students, a glimpse into the high- octane world behind that security fence. Clare Sebastian, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY: Our thanks to Clare Sebastian for that piece.

Why not start off 2025 with a cool billion or so? The odds of that happening, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Is your New Year's resolution to become a billionaire? Nice. The Mega Millions jackpot is now sitting just above an estimated $1.2 billion. It's the fifth largest in history. As for the odds, roughly 1 in 302,000,000.

Well, a new CNN Film examines the storied career of Luther Vandross from early years in Harlem to his rise to the king of love songs. Luther Vandross tells his own story along with the voices of his closest collaborators and friends.

Here's a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. Luther Vandross.

(SINGING)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I remember hearing "A House is Not a Home" for the first time. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. I told him, I said baby doll, you have just given me the definitive version of that song.

(SINGING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: The all new CNN film "LUTHER: NEVER TOO MUCH" premieres new years day at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and Pacific, only here on CNN.

Coming up on Sunday on "STATE OF THE UNION", Democratic Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey, an outgoing Republican governor, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. That's Sunday morning at 9:00 Eastern and again at noon here on CNN.

The news continues on CNN with Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM". Have a great weekend.