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Trump's Expansionist Goals?; Did Russia Cause Deadly Plane Crash?. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired December 26, 2024 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:00:07]

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: Startling new assertions on what may have caused that deadly plane crash in Central Asia, a U.S. official now telling CNN the latest signs point to Russia. Those details ahead.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: Plus, fear spreading on college campuses across the U.S. ahead of president-elect Trump's inauguration. Why some schools are advising international students to return early from winter break.

And bird flu is now linked to a pet food recall -- ahead, why this is just the latest in a series of troubling signs on the spread of this virus.

We are following major developing stories and many more, all coming in right here to CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

HILL: And good afternoon. Good to have all of you with us. I'm Erica Hill with Jim Sciutto today.

For the first time, the U.S. is offering an assessment of what may have caused that deadly plane crash in Kazakstan, killing dozens on board. A U.S. official says early indications suggest a Russian anti- aircraft system was responsible, adding that, if true, it may also be a case of mistaken identity.

The crash came shortly after Ukrainian drones struck Southern Russia. Meantime, video and images of the downed plane show various holes in the fuselage. CNN cannot confirm what may have caused them. The Kremlin has reportedly said it would be wrong to speculate before an investigation is carried out. NATO is now calling for a full investigation.

Joining me to discuss is Matt Borie. He's the chief intelligence officer for the aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions.

It's good to have you with us.

So this latest assessment that we have now from a U.S. official, this is similar to an alert that your firm sent out right after that crash, knowing that the circumstances, in your estimation, suggest that it was likely shot down by Russian military air defenses.

Can you give us a better sense of the evidence that you have seen pointing to that?

MATT BORIE, CHIEF INTELLIGENCE OFFICER, OSPREY FLIGHT SOLUTIONS: Yes, so, thank you for having me on today.

And, first off, I just want to give my condolences to the families and the staff that were on board that perished and those that are recovering from any injuries and the survivors.

The information that Osprey's evaluated looks not just at the damage from the videos of the crash site or the fuselage externally and internally, but also the security environment in the airspace over Southwest Russia during the time after this aircraft took off from Baku in Azerbaijan.

While it was over Southwest Russia in the North Caucasus Federal District, Russian military air defenses were reportedly engaging Ukrainian military-grade weaponized drones that had been launched, presumably at Chechnya.

During this time period, the aircraft was bound for Grozny Airport in the capital of Chechnya and effectively was in the air at the same time as this Russian military air defense activity was occurring to defend against a Ukrainian drone attack. Now,

the reports are from the -- some of the passengers that were on board the aircraft is that an explosion was heard outside of the aircraft and shrapnel penetrated through the fuselage into the cabin of the aircraft. There is video from while the aircraft was still in flight showing shrapnel damages inside the aircraft, and then the video of the wreckage shows shrapnel damage to the tail vertical stabilizer and horizontal stabilizer sections of the aircraft as well.

So, combining the fact that there was a drone attack being repelled by air defenses in the vicinity of where this aircraft was attempting to land and the damage that was sustained in flight and visible after the crash points to a Russian surface-to-air missile being launched at this aircraft while it was attempting to land at Grozny.

This has been not only highlighted by Osprey, our company, but Azeri media outlets are quoting unnamed Azeri government officials. Reuters has also reported that it is confirmed from sources that a Russian air defense system shot the aircraft down. Euronews has reported the same, that it has spoken to sources indicating a Russian air defense system downed this aircraft.

And Ukraine, who supposedly launched the drones at Russia, has said that Russia shot down the aircraft. So while there are denials or calls for an investigation to be completed before assigning the cause of the crash, all evidence that's being made public at present points to this being a misidentification and shoot-down of a civilian airliner.

HILL: I also wanted to ask you about a couple of different things that we saw. There's also -- it's Flightradar24 that said the aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.

[13:05:00]

Could that in any way have contributed as well to this flight path that we saw? So we were just showing this. I'm hoping we can put that back up on the screen, because what's remarkable to me is, we watch the path of this flight, right, and then the plane would be able to fly that long if it had been in distress, and then going back over the Caspian Sea.

Do you have any insight as to why, how this may have happened, when there were other airports, obviously, closer by?

BORIE: So the reporting that is -- has came out from Euronews, citing Azeri officials involved in the investigation, has said that Russia denied landing to the aircraft at, I believe, four airports in Southwest Russia.

And then the aircraft pilot in command decided to attempt a diversion to Aktau Airport in Kazakstan across the Caspian Sea. Now, this aircraft being exposed to GPS jamming during its flight is something that happens to a large number of aircraft every day that are operating in this part of the world, the Black Sea area, the Caspian Sea area, and up into Russia.

Effectively, what's taking place is, Russia is jamming GPS as a way to try to defend against drone attacks, so drones guided by GPS to their targets being jammed by Russian electronic warfare units with GPS jammers, trying to do -- stop them from being able to reach their destination.

Now, when you jam GPS in a defensive manner, it's going to affect any other aircraft flying over that area that are within the cone of the propagated signal. So civilian airliners flying over the same area would be having GPS interference take place.

And so that isn't something that Osprey views as being outside the norm, as in, this aircraft's GPS was being jammed. That would happen to any aircraft flying over that area on effectively a daily basis at present due to the frequency of Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside areas of Russia.

HILL: Matt Borie, I really appreciate your expertise. Thanks for joining us -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right, let's speak about this more with former CNN Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty.

And, Jill, good to have you here.

And, again, we should state at the beginning it's early, though we do have a U.S. official saying initial indications are this was a Russian air defense system that took down this passenger jet, as well as Reuters reporting citing officials in Azerbaijan that this was a Russian air defense system.

The parallels to MH17, when a Russian missile shot down a Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine, are notable here. And despite the fact that that was established by the evidence, right, it was a Russian missile that took down that passenger jet and killed all those people on board, Russia still denies it to its -- to this day and is floating this idea that this was a bird strike that took place with this Azerbaijani jet.

I mean, I ask that because I think it's important to highlight that Russia does not have good credibility on incidents like this well.

JILL DOUGHERTY, FORMER CNN MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF: Well, yes.

In fact, Jim, I covered that, the MH17, back in 2014. And, immediately, when I heard about this crash, it reminded me of that, because immediately you had theories, it's birds, it's fog, it is whatever.

And, again, we have to find out ultimately what happened. But the similarities really are striking, because, in that case, back in 2014 and now, it would be embarrassing, at the least, to Russia to have some -- to take a step which maybe was not aimed at bringing that down, bringing the plane down, but the effect was the same.

And I think if you look at now, the situation with drones, which didn't exist back in 2014, this is a major factor. And it is having a major effect on Russia. And Russia is trying to get back at Ukraine, stop these, and is quite furious about them.

So I don't think that it's surprising that this is a possible scenario.

SCIUTTO: And, listen, it would speak to a lack of capability, would it not, right, because already they have had multiple penetrations of Russian airspace by Ukrainian drones right up to Moscow, sensitive facilities, oil facilities, military facilities.

To then -- again, if this is confirmed to be the case, to have shot down a passenger jet would seem to open very real questions, including among the Russian public, as to how good their air defenses are.

DOUGHERTY: Well, that could be one.

And then also I think this issue with the question of GPS jamming, I mean, in a sense, that is that could be even more serious, because, if the theory is correct, and we just heard about this, they are -- they were jamming radar in that region, which meant that it could have affected that plane.

[13:10:13]

And, at the very least, you would think that they would warn people, warn planes. I remember, at that time after MH17, planes were diverted. There was not a lot of traffic going across Ukraine even at that point. And so a responsible, I think, military would warn people that this is an area the civilian planes shouldn't fly in.

But, again, I am not a technical expert. I'm just basing this on the experience. And it was really one of the strangest stories that I covered, precisely because of that fire hose of theories that came out literally within minutes.

SCIUTTO: And, listen, that's part -- you know better than me that's part of Russia's disinformation strategy, is to flood the zone with multiple theories.

I remember, at the time of the MH17, they were blaming Ukrainians for shooting at Putin's jet, and that's how this jet was shot down. They flood the zone, create uncertainty, which, well, our own country can relate to, based on experience in recent years.

Let me ask you about where you are today, in Tbilisi, because there are ongoing protests there of recent presidential elections, which several senior Georgian opposition officials, as well as international agencies have, called a -- not a fair -- a free and fair election.

What happens now in Georgia? The protests haven't stopped. Will the people get a new election?

DOUGHERTY: No, in fact, I will tell you, as I was arriving -- I just arrived tonight -- there was a protest going down the main street right in front of the hotel, and these protests sometimes having reportedly -- and if you look at the video, I think you can believe it -- 200,000 people on the streets.

Now, it's complicated politically, but, essentially, the government, the Parliament that was elected back in October when I was here for that election, they are considered illegitimate by the existing president. Her name is Salome Zourabichvili.

And what you could have on Sunday the 29th is, you could have a new president that has been named by this Parliament that the existing president says is illegal. They could be trying to inaugurate a president, when there already is a president.

So this is really a constitutional crisis. And it's more than that. I mean, if you look at the streets, there is worry that there could be martial law. Nobody quite knows what's going on, but it is a very big show, I think, by the opposition and by civil society here in Georgia that they want to be part of the E.U. They want to be part of Europe.

And that's essentially what this is all about.

SCIUTTO: Yes. And, listen, Russia through the last several years has shown, when countries within its perceived orbit move further -- closer to the West, they don't like that and often use violence in response.

I want to focus, if we can, on Ukraine now, because President Biden is condemning the -- quote -- "waves" of missiles and drones that hit Ukraine's power grid, deliberately, we should note, on Christmas Day, Ukraine says that Russia fired some 70 missiles, more than 100 drones. Officials report one person killed, six wounded, half-a-million Ukrainian households now without heat in the bitter cold.

And that would seem to be the function of these attacks. Russia hit in Eastern Ukraine in the Dnipro region, as well as closer to the border in the Kharkiv area in the northeast. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decried the attacks as inhumane. President Biden said he directed the Pentagon to keep up its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine in response.

His statement said -- quote -- "The United States will continue to work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine's position in its defenses against Russian forces."

So, Jill, President Biden's call to -- quote -- "work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine's position," listen, he only has 25 more days left in office. President-elect Trump may take a very different view, although I should note that Keith Kellogg, who is acting something as Trump's emissary to Russia and Ukraine, did condemn these attacks on Christmas Day.

What is your read of what happens when Trump takes the presidency? Does he try to force Ukraine to the negotiating table?

DOUGHERTY: There are a lot of ways that they're talking about. I mean, I don't think that you can say that there is one consistent idea coming from the Trump transition people.

[13:15:00]

There does seem to be kind of a general approach, which would be putting pressure on both sides, on Russia and on Ukraine, by either giving more aid to Ukraine or not giving aid to Ukraine, depending upon how amenable either side is to sitting down at the negotiating table.

But I think that's what, to me, is striking. And just even arriving here in Georgia, every nation in this region is looking to January 20, and they're trying to figure out, how does that affect us?

So, here in Georgia, they were saying the government, which is actually pretty much anti-American at this point, was saying, well, we don't want to -- the party of war, the United States, is trying to drag Georgia into war.

Now guess what phrase they're using? The deep state. They're literally using that, the deep state. So I think they're focusing on incoming President Trump. This might speak to him more directly, et cetera. And every nation here is trying to prepare for whatever comes.

SCIUTTO: Yes.

DOUGHERTY: It's very, very unclear what's going to come. But they know that a lot is riding on their existence, especially here in Georgia...

SCIUTTO: Yes, it's interesting.

DOUGHERTY: ... depending on what the United States does.

SCIUTTO: To see these events of the last several days in Georgia, in Ukraine as well, is a reminder that Russia's strategic interests have not changed with the U.S. election.

It still wants to bring Georgia further into its fold, doesn't want it to move further to the West. It still wants to push Ukraine into submission. I mean, and that's -- let's be frank. That's what these attacks are meant to do by targeting the civilian population, making it freeze in the middle of winter by taking out its heat.

That hasn't changed because there's a new incoming president here. Can we read that as a sign of the limitations of Trump's power to fundamentally change the balance, the dynamics of this conflict?

DOUGHERTY: Yes, actually, I think that's a good point, because President Trump comes into it from his own viewpoint. What does he want? He wants the war to stop, regardless of how it stops.

But if you look at Putin, Putin has a much broader idea, and it's really to create kind of a zone of influence on that western border of Russia to make sure it's almost like a cordon sanitaire on the West to protect it from NATO, to protect it from the West. And all of these countries that are on the border, small countries, I mean, Georgia, four million people.

Ukraine is bigger, of course, but Moldova, all of these small nations are really fair game for Vladimir Putin if he wants to kind of neuter them or make them at least kind of a protection for Russia, which would violate their sovereignty.

So it's a very -- it's a dramatic, historic moment. And I think keeping track of it is pretty complicated at this point.

SCIUTTO: No question.

Good to have you there, Jill Dougherty. Thanks so much.

DOUGHERTY: Yes.

SCIUTTO: And still ahead: The president-elect has a new obsession overseas with the Panama Canal, and now he has a new ambassador who could be facing a much more difficult job.

Please do stay with us.

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[13:22:33]

HILL: President-elect Trump is repeating his desire to expand U.S. territory by assuming control of the Panama Canal, Greenland and even Canada.

He's now named his pick for ambassador to Panama, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera, just days after suggesting the U.S. should retake control of the canal. This was also the focus of his Christmas message, along with the wish list of adding Greenland and Canada to the U.S.

CNN's Alayna Treene is live in West Palm Beach, Florida, with more details here.

So, first of all, let's take a look at his pick for ambassador to Panama. What does that tell us? And what are Cabrera's views on the canal?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well, it's very clear that Cabrera is someone who is very loyal to Donald Trump, someone will do his bidding.

I want to walk you through just some of his background to give you a sense of who he is and how he aligns with Donald Trump's views. So he is a Miami-Dade County commissioner. He was elected two years ago with the endorsement of Donald Trump, and he has remained very close to the Trump campaign ever since, I'm told.

He actually had once sponsored this idea to name a street in Miami- Dade after Donald Trump. He also worked on the Trump campaign in 2024 as part of the Latinos for Trump coalition. And he also represented Florida on the RNC platform committee.

Now, again, this is clearly someone, Kevin Marino Cabrera, who will do Donald Trump's bidding. But depending on what Donald Trump's plans are for Panama and whether he is serious about his aggressive pursuit and claims that he wants to take over control of the Panama Canal, Cabrera could have a very hefty assignment, have a big plate in front of him if he successfully becomes the ambassador to Panama.

Now, I want to walk you just through a little bit of where this is coming from Donald Trump's end. He kind of started talking about this a couple days ago. He's been arguing that Panama and the Panama Canal specifically are taking advantage of the United States in the way that it's used. Of course, the Panama Canal was made by the U.S., but it has been controlled by Panama, the country, for about 25 years now.

And I also think I want to just make clear as well that it doesn't seem like Donald Trump would be successful in taking back the Panama Canal. But this -- it's still unclear to us if this is a negotiating tactic on his side or if this is an opening salvo for something that he wants to do, whether it's with tariffs or other trade negotiations or if he's serious about this, but, again, kind of unlikely and similar in his claims that he wants to buy Greenland or also make Canada the 51st state.

[13:25:11]

HILL: Alayna, too, it's fascinating to watch this, especially as we hear the reaction from Panama. Just walk us through that latest reaction, if you would.

TREENE: Yes, we heard from him this morning, Panama's president. This is what he said in a statement.

He said -- quote -- "There are no Chinese in the canal. It is as simple as that. Neither Chinese or any other power is in the canal." Again, that is from Panama's President Jose Mulino today. Now, that statement from him is kind of referencing what Donald Trump

has said, which is that he believes that Chinese soldiers are playing a role and taking control over the Panama Canal, that they are influencing how that is run, something that the president of Panama is clearly very much pushing back on.

That is something we heard from Donald Trump yesterday, but all to say, again, it's very unclear how serious Donald Trump is with these threats and what he would actually task his new pick for the ambassador to Canada to do in some of these conversations.

I think one thing, though, that is clear is that he's really trying to assert his dominance over many of these foreign leaders with days to go still until he's officially sworn into office on Inauguration Day -- Erica.

HILL: Alayna, appreciate it, thank you.

Universities across the U.S. are urging their international students to get back on campus before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

We will tell you why just ahead on CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

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