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Russian Anti-Aircraft System Suspected in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Amid Calls for Caution; Biden Calls Russia's Attack on Ukraine's Power Grid Outrageous; Israel Strikes Yemen; Just Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired December 26, 2024 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[14:01:27]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: Christmas Day crash. New accusations about what may have caused the deadly Azerbaijan Airlines disaster in Kazakhstan. One U.S. official calling it a possible case of mistaken identity.

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: With just 25 days left in office, President Biden taking stock of his legacy as he prepares to leave the White House to his one-time rival.

The Bidens, meantime, among the roughly 120 million Americans traveling for the holidays. And as some of you get set to hit the road in the skies again, how could the weather impact your next bit of travel? We'll take a closer look at those and a number of other developing stories coming in right here to CNN News Central.

SCIUTTO: For the first time, the U.S. is offering an assessment on what may have caused the Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan which killed 38 people. A U.S. official tells CNN that early indications point to Russian air defenses bringing down the passenger plane in a possible case of mistaken identity.

Video of the plane's wreckage shows small perforations in the fuselage of the plane. CNN cannot confirm where they came from, but an aviation expert tells us the holes seem to support the theory from that U.S. official.

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MATT BORIE, CHIEF INTELLIGENCE OFFICER, OSPREY FLIGHT SOLUTIONS: Some of the passengers that were on board the aircraft is that an explosion was heard outside of the aircraft and shrapnel penetrated through the fuselage into the cabin of the aircraft.

There is video from while the aircraft was still in flight showing shrapnel damages inside the aircraft. And then the video of the wreckage shows shrapnel damage to the tail, vertical stabilizer and horizontal stabilizer sections of the aircraft as well.

So combining the fact that there was a drone attack being repelled by air defenses in the vicinity of where this aircraft was attempting to land and the damage that was sustained in flight and visible after the crash points to a Russian surface to air missile being launched at this aircraft.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Video taken inside the cabin during the flight's final moments reveals dangling oxygen mass. A male passenger can be heard reciting a prayer. CNN has not been able to confirm the man's identity or sadly, whether he survived.

Joining me now to discuss is CNN Aviation Analyst, a former NTSB managing director, Peter Goelz. Peter, always good to have you on questions like this.

PETER GOELZ, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, thank you. Sorry to be here on the holiday.

SCIUTTO: No question. So let's begin with the evidence we have to date. And one is I want to show the pictures of the fuselage of this Azerbaijani jet showing those perforations and compare them to holes we saw in MH17, this is the Malaysian passenger jet shot down over Ukraine in 2014 by a Russian missile system.

And the reason I do is because they have penetrations with the metal pointing inward which seems to indicate an explosion from the outside or some collision of some sort from the outside. Based on those images, do you see at least why the U.S. assessment is that this would have been or may have been a Russian air defense system that fired at this jet?

GOELZ: Sure. Absolutely. You know, we started looking at this kind of challenge back in the mid-1990s after TWA 800 crashed.

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And we did a series of tests at the NTSB with the Navy out at the China Lake Munitions Center. And we exploded missiles at varying lengths from the skin of airplanes. The puncture wounds were very similar to those that we saw on TV last night and on video today.

And as you look at the MH17 reconstruction, that really shows a close in hit. And the pilots, when autopsies were done, they were killed by the penetrating pieces of shrapnel. So this is a real concern. It's happened before. And the Russians have a long complex border that they're very nervous about.

SCIUTTO: And let's be frank, Russia does not have a great track record of credibility. They continue to this day to deny involvement in the MH17 shoot down, despite the evidence. As you mentioned, there were pieces of a Russian Buk missile found inside the bodies of the pilots of that plane.

I want to look now at the flight path because when you see where this jet was struck as it was approaching the airport in Grozny in the southern Chechnya region of Russia, typically under those circumstances, I imagine pilots would look to land at the closest airport. In this case, they had to fly across the Caspian Sea to get to Kazakhstan. What would explain that? GOELZ: Well, that's an interesting question, one that popped up to me immediately upon looking at it. I mean, why they -- they may have gone to Kazakhstan because the Russian sphere of influence in Kazakhstan is stronger and they could -- they thought they could control the message. But in any case, that really has to be answered. The Russians announced right away that this was a bird strike.

Well, that's unusual at that altitude. And these GE engines on the Embraer 190 are very reliable. And seldom have they ever had an uncontained failure that would shoot shrapnel into the fuselage of the plane. So that was really, you know, did not hold a lot of water.

SCIUTTO: One advantage of the MH17 crash was that international investigators could get to the scene, look at the wreckage, look at the bodies, and ultimately come to their conclusions that that was a Russian missile that took that jet down. You do already have stories. For instance, Reuters has a story out quoting what appear to be Azerbaijani officials that their information was that this was shot down by an air defense system.

You have a U.S. intelligence assessment, at least an early one that this looks like an air defense system. Based on where this plane went down, will there be a reliable international investigation to establish with certainty what led to this crash?

GOELZ: I don't think it will be. The Kazakhstani government will control the investigation. They can structure it any way they'd like. Although there are guidelines that they are a party to issue by the International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO, they're not absolutely obligated to follow it and they may not.

I mean, I think -- I don't think the Russians are going to admit that their air defense folks made a mistake. It took them almost a decade to acknowledge that their own fighter planes had shot down the 747 from Korea, KAL007 they would not even admit that they had ordered that shoot down. So I think we're in for a haul on this investigation.

SCIUTTO: There was one other piece before we go. Flightradar24 said in a social media post that the aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny. This is not the first time we've seen it. We've seen some GPS jamming in northern Europe of passenger flights that some of those northern European countries blamed on Russia. How would that factor into this? And would that come before a missile defense system strike on -- on a plane, perhaps mistaken for a drone?

GOELZ: Yeah, I think this is part of the story of the fog of war. You know, there's a great deal of pressure put on people, particularly on the Air Defense League. If they've been air defense forces, if they've been attacked by drones, they've got these GPS jamming strategies that often work, but not always.

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They're under a lot of pressure to not let a drone get through, particularly so far inside the Russian borders. I think it's entirely conceivable that they were under a lot of pressure. They saw something appearing and they let a missile fly and that was it. It's tragic, it's unacceptable. And you know, the world community's got to get to the bottom of it.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. And again, it's not the first time it's happened. You think 2014, MH17 and 2020, there was a Ukrainian jet shot down by Iranian air defenses --

GOELZ: Correct.

SCIUTTO: -- mistaking it again for a hostile actor. Peter Goelz, thanks so much for walking us through everything.

GOELZ: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: Erica, back to you.

HILL: All right, Jim. Also with us, retired U.S. Army Colonel Peter Mansoor. It's good to have you with us. As we look at sort of picking up a little bit off of what Jim and Peter was just discussing there, the fact that we have a U.S. official telling CNN there are early indications here it was in fact U.S. anti-aircraft system that may have downed this plane. They don't know exactly what type of system they have said.

Based on what you know, however, about what is available to Russia and what Russia has in terms of anti-aircraft systems, do you see the type of system that could potentially be based on Russia's abilities?

PETER MANSOOR, U.S. ARMY (RET.): Well, there was one report that the system was the Pantsir-S, which is a medium range air defense missile system, it's truck mounted, which would make sense in those the same kind of system that you would use to shoot down a drone, for instance. First the air defense operators would try to spoof the drone with GPS jamming and if that didn't work, then they would take it out with a missile. And that kind of tracks with what we know about what happened to this airliner.

HILL: Given that, are you saying that you think this is likely a mistake?

MANSOOR: Yes. Why the air defenses were not apprised of the civil aviation plan for this particular airliner, we'll never know. I doubt the Russians will be forthcoming or transparent, but it was clearly a mistake. They thought it was likely an enemy system headed for Grozny and they took it out when in fact it was, you know, full of innocent civilians. And again, this is an error caused by the lack of the air defense system, knowing the flight plan of this airliner which was filed days ahead of time or if not weeks ahead of time.

HILL: How surprising is that to you given that to your point, the flight plan would have been filed ahead of time. There's also the reality, I was speaking just last hour with Matt Borie of Osprey Flight Solutions, talking about these GPS, the jamming and the spoofing near Grozny, who said -- and Matt told me, look, this is pretty well-known that it happens in the area. Given both of those factors, it is surprising that it seems this happened in many ways. MANSOOR: Well, this is a very human error. Your systems are only as good as the people that operate them. The Russian air defenses, you know, they're staffed by operators who are not always as well-trained as you would hope that they would be. And this is a very human mistake that someone made or someone in the chain of command made by authorizing the missile to -- to be fired. But, yeah, I don't think this was deliberate at all. This was an airliner going from Baku to Grozny. There was no reason for the Russians to shoot it down.

HILL: I also want to get your take on another story that we're following. The region President Biden is calling Russia's mass attack, latest mass attack, I should say, on Ukraine's power grid, the one happening on Christmas Day, quote, "outrageous", saying that its purpose was to cut off the Ukrainian people's access to heat and electricity during winter. Ukraine is reporting Russia fired some 70 missiles, more than 100 drones in the Dnipro and Kharkiv regions. One person dead, wounded at least six.

As we look at that and where things stand, the Biden administration is surging as much military aid right now to Ukraine in the waning weeks of that administration, of course. What do you believe Ukraine can achieve in terms of their defense prior to the change in leadership here in the United States, which we know is going to have an impact?

MANSOOR: Yes. Well, unfortunately, unless they get restocked with new munitions, their air defenses are going to degrade over time. This is a deliberate Russian campaign to take out the electrical grid in Ukraine. It's the node of the economy that Russia has chosen to attack, just like the U.S. army air forces attacked the oil system in Germany in World War II.

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And it's working. Ukraine requires these munitions, for instance, the Patriot air defense missile system. But it needs reloads for those launchers. And if it fails to get those reloads, then the Russian strategic campaign against the electrical grid will succeed over time. And this is what the Russians are counting on, of course, and what the Ukrainians are trying to prevent.

HILL: In terms of that, do you anticipate Russia actually ramping up the attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure prior to January 20th?

MANSOOR: Well, if I were them, I would do it afterwards to test what the Trump administration is going to do in response. And if they cut off, if the Trump administration cuts off arms shipments to Ukraine, then I would go full bore in on the campaign to try to eliminate the electrical generating capacity of the Ukrainian enemy. But, you know, we'll see.

HILL: When we look at the Kursk region, right? This one area where Ukraine has been able to hold on to some Russian territory. The hope, at least what I've been told by a number of analysts has been and officials is that the hope, of course, for Ukraine is that in holding onto that gives them a little bit more leverage perhaps, as they -- they may be forced into uncomfortable negotiations in the coming months. How much -- how important I should say, is that territory for Ukraine in the inevitability that they get to that point?

MANSOOR: It's not exceedingly important the amount of territory that they have succeeded in taking, is not that large. But it is yet another bargaining chip they hope to use when negotiations commence, probably in the next several months. So we'll see.

But you know, this is also the area where the North Korean soldiers that have been provided to Russia are operating. So it's very interesting in that regard. There is some combat going on with these essentially allies of the Russian army.

HILL: Yeah, absolutely. Colonel Peter Mansoor, I always appreciate your insight. Thank you.

MANSOOR: Thanks, Erica.

HILL: Just ahead here, we are live in Saint Croix where President Biden is now winding down some of the final days of his presidency.

Plus, the Chief of the World Health Organization says he was about to board a flight in Yemen when it came under Israeli attack. We are live in the Middle East next.

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HILL: President Biden spending the final days of a rather tumultuous year vacationing in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Biden's arriving in Saint Croix just about an hour ago. Of course, as he is winding down his final 25 days in office.

CNN's Julia Benbrook is traveling with the President joining us now live from St. Croix. So in terms of the President closing out the last three plus weeks of his presidency, a lot of reflection happening, I would imagine.

JULIA BENBROOK, CNN NEWSOURCE CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. I think this is really a bittersweet moment. With just 25 days left, he's saying goodbye not only to his time as president, but his more than several decades long career in political office.

And President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden arrived here in Saint Croix just about an hour ago, as you mentioned. And this holiday trip has really become a tradition for them. And Erica, I can see why they like it here. You can see behind me you've got beaches. The temperatures since we arrived have been between the 70s and the 80s the whole time.

But this trip looked a lot different for Biden, just about a year ago. He was preparing for the election and seeking another four years in the White House. This was just about before campaign season really picked up and obviously a lot has happened since then.

There were questions about his ability to serve for another four years. He dropped out of the race, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. And then, she lost the election to now President Elect Donald Trump. So he is now the one preparing for another four years in office.

Biden is focused on preserving his legacy and we expect him in these next few weeks to give several speeches talking about some of his key accomplishments, causes that have been important to him, including climate, the economy and foreign policy.

And then after Saint Croix, he'll be spending New Year's Eve in Delaware and then he'll be on a foreign trip early in the New Year where he's making stops in Rome and the Vatican to meet with Pope Francis. They're going to discuss global peace efforts.

Now, we don't expect a ton of policy advancement in these next few weeks. White House officials believe that anything that they really get done in this final sprint toward January 20th could be overturned by the incoming administration. So instead that focuses on preserving key achievements as well as preserving his legacy.

HILL: All right, Julia, thank you. Appreciate it. Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right, so let's speak more now about the outgoing and incoming presidents. Joining us for that, Katie Frost, Republican Strategist, former Executive Director of the Georgia Freedom Caucus, and Meghan Hays, Democratic Strategist, former White House Director of Message Planning under President Biden. Good to have you both on this day after Christmas.

Meghan, if I could begin with you, given you worked for Biden, 39% approval rating as he prepares to leave office. It's not a good number. It's quite close to where it's been for some months now. Before he goes, just briefly, biggest wins for him from his four years and what were the biggest mistakes then?

MEGHAN HAYS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think the biggest wins for him were the infrastructure bill, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, putting all that money back into communities for roads and bridges and other investments. I also think the CHIPS and Science Act where he is bringing jobs here, things are being manufactured here in the United States.

And also, the inflation reduction act and massive investments into clean energy economy.

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And also he created more jobs than any president in modern history. And I think, you know, that -- I think that legacy is -- is not something that we're going to see right now, but I think it's something that he has put the footwork in that generations will benefit from.

SCIUTTO: And failures?

HAYS: I think that one of the failures probably is that he decided to run again. I think that that probably was -- looking back, will probably be something that he will -- he will think probably was the biggest mark on his legacy.

SCIUTTO: So, Katie, when you look at numbers in terms of satisfaction with the direction of the country, this often cited as one of the reasons Democrats lost, just because so much of the country did not like where it was going. But if you look at the numbers now, they're not great. Republican satisfaction has gone down to 9% from 16 just following the election. Democrats are at 31%. Those are low numbers for any president to confront. And I wonder, does Donald Trump have the ability to quickly turn that around to any large degree? How does he do it?

KATIE FROST, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, it's good to be with you, Jim. I do believe President Trump has the ability. I mean, we've seen this man come back and counter so many narratives, completely turn things on their head time and time again. So if anyone is able to do it, it's definitely going to be President Trump.

And, you know, we look at what's going to happen. He's been very clear on how he wants to focus on the economy and he wants to really just take care of the American people. And that's why, in my view, the Democratic Party lost is because the American people felt like the Democrats had forgotten them and did their everyday lives were getting worse.

And President Trump ran on that simple message of are you better off now than you were four years ago? And the answer from the American people was a resounding no. And that is why he had such a decisive victory in November. So I do believe he's going to be able to turn this ship around. I think he's going to be very aggressive and have some great policy plans right out of the gate. So I'm looking forward to the next four years.

SCIUTTO: Let me ask you, because there was some talk in recent days, until yesterday, I suppose that Trump's message, Katie, at his inauguration was going to be one of unity. And then you have his post just yesterday, a Christmas post, in which he said, Merry Christmas to the radical left lunatics who are constantly trying to obstruct our court system in our elections and are always going after the great citizens and patriots of the United States, but in particular, their Political opponent, me.

That does not strike me, or I think anyone reading it as a message of unity. Is he going to enact policies that support his supporters, or is he going to attempt to serve the American people across the board, whether they voted for him or not?

FROST: Well, I do believe he's going to serve the American people across the board because when the economy improves, it improves for everyone, regardless of who you voted for. When our streets are safer, they're safer for everyone, regardless of who you voted for. When our border is secure, it impacts everyone, regardless of who you voted for. So the policies he's going to put in place will benefit every single American, regardless of their political ideology.

SCIUTTO: All right, Meghan, will the policies that Trump is planning and talking about benefit every single American, in your view? HAYS: No, tariffs are not going to benefit every single American, in my view. I think that, you know, it's been proven that that will add over $4,000 to the working class people. And I think that those are the people who are hurting the most right now.

And there's no question, Katie is right. There's no question that people want to change and they are getting change, but they wanted people to lower prices and to make -- make their lives better. And tariffs don't make lives better.

Tax cuts for wealthy do not make the middle class better. So we'll have to see what policies actually get through the legal system once he tries to force them through with EOs, but we'll see how -- how things play out. But, you know, the midterms will be coming here quickly, so the American people will have a say again.

SCIUTTO: Katie, President Elect Trump has taken particular interest in territory in the last several days, making another pitch to take or attempt to somehow woo (ph) Greenland from U.S. ally Denmark and to turn Canada into the 51st state.

You also have him commenting that he wants to take back the Panama Canal despite a Senate ratified treaty that returned Panama to -- the Canal to Panamanian control during the Carter administration. Does President Elect Trump believe he can actually do this or is this posturing on his part?

FROST: He's a master negotiator. I mean, the man literally wrote the book on the art of the deal. So, you know, there's always, you know, everything's on the table when you're having these discussions. I will say the Panama Canal is of key interest to American interests. 40% of all shipping containers that come to the United States go through the Panama Canal.

So, you know, Meghan, we're talking about lowering prices for the American worker and for the American middle class. If we can get down the cost of goods by renegotiating and getting the fees lower through the Panama Canal, that is a cost that's directly passed on to the consumer.

When your ships are having to pay anywhere from 150,000 to a million dollars to pass through the Panama Canal, that impacts the consumer directly. So President Trump can --

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