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President Trump Teases Third Term; Chances of Recession Rising?; Trump Tariffs Worry Markets. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired March 31, 2025 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:00:36]

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: Ticktock. President Trump's impending tariff rollout is roiling Wall Street, and Americans are rethinking their finances on Main Street. We're following the latest.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Plus, Trump 2028? The Constitution says a president can't serve more than two terms, but Trump says there are methods to getting it done. What exactly are those -- quote, unquote -- "methods"?

And Elon Musk's government efficiency tour heading to the Central Intelligence Agency. Why the CIA director thinks he can be key to the agency's mission.

We're following these major developing stories and many more all coming in right here to CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

KEILAR: Buckle up, tariff week is here, and global economies are bracing for a rocky ride, as President Trump's escalating trade war barrels towards its next phase.

We're just one day in 11th hours from Trump's so-called liberation day, a day that he says -- quote -- "All countries will be slapped with sweeping reciprocal tariffs." Auto tariffs also set to kick in.

SANCHEZ: And, for that reason, some Americans are apparently rushing to dealerships, but Trump says he -- quote -- "couldn't care less' if car prices rise, predicting short-term pain will ultimately boost American-made sales.

CNN's Jeff Zeleny is live for us at the White House.

Jeff, what more are officials there saying?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Boris, that is exactly the gamble that the president is undertaking here, that any short-term pain could ultimately lead to more American production of cars and other goods.

And that is really one of the central questions hanging over all of this so-called liberation day, as you said. It's certainly branded in a very presidential way. We have seen this president branding many things before. But this liberation day is something that is really coming after a couple months of on-again/off-again tariffs with various countries on various sectors of the economy.

But this liberation day is designed to -- as you can see there, it's designed to have across-the-board tariffs on a variety of things, as well as reciprocal dollar-for-dollar tariffs for every country. That's to close the gap with some of these trading partners, if you will.

But, also, the Mexico and Canada tariffs that have been put on hold will now be taken off hold. So that is also another central piece to all of this. So the uncertainty that this has created in the market certainly is concerning many business owners, investors as well.

But the president has not made exactly clear if there will be more exemptions in this case, if there will be an across-the-board set of tariffs, or if some countries will be sort of treated differently.

But, at this hour, there is no doubt the administration is being lobbied by various industry groups, some foreign leaders as well, to try and be exempted from some of these tariffs. But the bottom line to all of this is, what does this do for the price of goods? It's likely to increase it across the board -- Boris and Brianna.

SANCHEZ: Yes, near-unanimous agreement on that.

Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much.

We mentioned that car prices are likely to spike, but, as you heard there from Jeff, so many other things are going to get more expensive, including food.

KEILAR: That's right.

CNN business and politics correspondent Vanessa Yurkevich is with us now on this part of the story.

So, Vanessa, just how high of a jump are we talking about here?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and we don't know what food products are going to be hit, and that's a lot of the uncertainty here.

But we know that perishable items, so fruits, vegetables, things that you cannot stockpile, will be hit first, and that's where you will see the prices jump. We're hearing from the International Fresh Produce Association. They are lobbying the administration for exemptions on food and florals.

Listen -- I'm going to read you actually what they wrote the administration. They said: "The proposed U.S. tariffs and the resulting retaliatory actions of other nations threaten American consumers' ability to afford fresh produce and florals, as well as the stability and prosperity of the growers and businesses that supply them."

And I will also add that we get specific products from specific countries, like avocados, pineapples, because we actually cannot grow them here, Brianna and Boris. We don't have the climate for it. So the idea that we could all of a sudden start producing some of this food here is just simply not an option.

[13:05:00]

SANCHEZ: And when it comes specifically to the auto industry, there's some concern that these tariffs are also going to come with job cuts.

YURKEVICH: Yes, the downstream ripple effect of job cuts.

And that is because the U.S. exports about 15 percent of the 10.2 million cars that we make. And that means that, if there are reciprocal tariffs on some of those cars, we're not going to be producing many of them. And that's going to impact jobs.

Also, just the production between North America, U.S., Mexico, and Canada, expected to -- excuse me -- that they -- expected reduce production by 10 percent to 20 percent. So that would impact jobs. And then this is interesting. You have a lot of American parts suppliers, people who work in that industry, about 500,000 and more.

Those folks supply parts for U.S. cars, but also parts for cars from other countries. So they could be impacted. And just on the consumer front, guys, there's a very short window to buy a car before it gets hit with tariffs. The 25 percent tariff on a low-price vehicle, about $30,000, could mean that price would rise by $5,300.

And this is important. The car inventory, there's good car inventory, about 85 days on new cars, but used cars, a lot fewer days, 50 days of used car inventory. And so those are tariff-free cars, both on the new car front and the used car front. But if people are looking to beat these tariffs, now is the time. Those tariffs go into effect on April 3.

And any new inventory coming in, they're going to get hit with those tariffs, guys.

KEILAR: Wow.

All right, Vanessa Yurkevich, we will see the run on those dealerships, I suspect, here.

Goldman Sachs is saying that odds of a U.S. recession are rising. The bank now says there's a 35 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. here in the next 12 months. That is up from 20 percent previously.

Let's talk about this now with Kevin O'Leary, the chairman of O'Leary Ventures and "Shark Tank" investor.

All right, Kevin, I will say some other prognosticators are actually putting the chances higher than 35 percent. How are you looking at this?

KEVIN O'LEARY, FOUNDER, O'LEARY VENTURES: I don't see it that high.

A lot of these forecasts are based on the idea that tariffs are going to be permanent and in perpetuity. And I don't think that's the case. I think what's unusual about the situation we have now that's never happened before is usually when you talk about tariffs or trade negotiations, you do them with a group of countries, for example, NAFTA, which included Mexico and Canada last time.

In the typical style of Trump, he likes to actually let you watch sausage being made. He's putting tariffs on the entire world. Never been done. And so it's really about making reciprocal tariffs with every country that applied these as far back as the Second World War. And it's a series of negotiations that are happening.

So, for me, I look at this and say, OK, what he really wants to do is bring the ratio of tariffs to be equivalent between England or Canada or Mexico or any country, frankly, by schedule. And these things have existed for decades.

And so, if you're Britain, as they're doing right now, or Canada, you're scrambling. You're trying to figure out which are the priorities that you want to get reduced, because, in the end, about tariffs, if they're going to be reciprocal, in the end, that actually promotes free trade.

It's stupid to have the same equal tariff on both sides of any country. It's just dumb. And everybody knows that. And so you eventually say, well, as occurred just 48 hours ago, when Senator Kennedy out of Louisiana said, hey, what are we idiots here? Canadians, zero tariffs, U.S., zero tariffs. Let's get this economy merged in terms of trading freely with no tariffs on the 49th Parallel.

He makes sense. And that's exactly what's going to happen. In the case of the Canadians, you get a political situation, an election. So it's toxic up there. They're using Trump to get out the base to vote, anti- Trump everywhere. That's what Carney's doing, the liberal leader who was about to lose, and now he's using Trump as the fulcrum to try and stay in power, or at least his party stays in power.

And so this is really an interesting dynamic, but it too will pass.

KEILAR: But...

O'LEARY: I don't think this is going to cause a recession. I don't see it in my own companies yet, and I think it's going to be short- lived.

KEILAR: OK, short-lived, but you're still thinking with elections here in several weeks in Canada that it's not going to be that short- lived. I mean, you're expecting this is still going to be in effect.

So you have Goldman looking at -- I mean, people are looking at that, right? They're seeing that. And so you have Goldman factoring in things like household and business confidence that's taking a dip, because they're looking at what you are describing, which is that this is going to hit and it is going to take hold for at least a little while.

There's statements from the White House. You're hearing from Peter Navarro. He's not talking about it like it's a negotiating tactic. He's saying, these are tax cuts, these are jobs, this is national security.

[13:10:06]

Do you think that you need to look more at people and businesses who the way they're feeling about this does have a say in whether we head towards a recession or not?

O'LEARY: When you're negotiating, those are the words you use. And just hours ago, interim Prime Minister Carney said the same thing: We are cutting off all ties to the United States. There's no cooperation anymore.

That, of course, is sheer stupidity; 75 percent of the output of the Canadian market for over 100 years has been sold to the U.S., and 17 states in the U.S. call Canada their number one trading partner. There is no way that's going to happen.

But if you want to be tough and you want to sound important and you're trying to get elected and you're the only person that can save every Canadian from the evil Trump, that's exactly what you say. Navarro is saying the same thing: These tariffs are in perpetuity. We will fix this. We will push back the world.

All of this rhetoric and noise, it's not the signal. It's all noise. And, in the end, I think everybody's better off if we get to reciprocal tariffs of zero, so the countries you care about that you want to do business with, you end up with zero tariffs and you support a free trade mandate.

It's very hard to see that outcome in the cloud we're in right now and all the rhetoric and jawboning. But if you're an investor like I am, you think long term. And so the concerns that Goldman have about housing prices and inflation goods and services, it takes a long time for that to happen, not two weeks, not two months.

KEILAR: Yes.

O'LEARY: So I am in the more of the, let's get calmed down here. Let's let the rhetoric be fired at each other.

Every country -- Britain's doing the same thing right now.

KEILAR: Well, sure.

O'LEARY: You should hear the rhetoric in London today.

KEILAR: Kevin, but let me ask you this.

O'LEARY: It's the same stuff. But it too will pass.

KEILAR: Because I hear you on this. And as you're making it, you're making a case that certainly makes sense from your perspective.

But when you have a cushion, like a sizable cushion to play with, it's easier to take that perspective. And you have steel and aluminum tariffs that are already in effect. So, when we're talking about small business owners, let's listen to one microbrewery near Asheville, North Carolina that -- by the way, they have still been recovering from the hurricane there.

This is what they're dealing with those tariffs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ADAM CHARNACK, HI-WIRE BREWING: The cans are manufactured in the United States. I can't control where they get their aluminum from. Our can prices went up immediately 5 percent, and they'll probably go up again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: So he says he's shipping thousands and thousands of cases a week. Great, right? He's doing great there, except he's eating the cost. He doesn't want to raise prices right now on consumers. So he's digging into his already thin margins doing that.

That's not some foreign entity or government eating the cost. He doesn't have a big cushion. What do you think about the Trump administration, including the president himself, insisting that that's how it works, that it's foreign entities, that it's foreign governments, when we're hearing from people on the ground who are saying, no, I'm the one eating the cost here?

O'LEARY: Well, let's make the assumption that rational minds always prevail because of one thing, economics. It's always the same. Let's take aluminum for each other.

KEILAR: Why are you making that assumption?

O'LEARY: The problem for...

(LAUGHTER)

O'LEARY: Well, yes, I'm going to make that assumption, because here's why.

Aluminum is made with the biggest input cost of electricity. We don't have enough electricity to build 15 smelters in the U.S. And even if we wanted to, it would take a decade. So, in the meantime, to get aluminum for all the goods and services that require that metal, we're going to have to buy it.

Who's the number one supplier of aluminum to the United States? It's Canada. Why? Because they have the power. They have an abundance of electricity through hydro and nuclear power. They make it, we buy it, we turn it into beer cans or whatever you want it to be.

Navarro's not stupid. Lutnick's not dumb. Trump isn't stupid. They will figure this out pretty quickly. And they know it to be the case. And so all they're doing is waiting for the Canadians -- in this case, it's Canada -- to figure out who's going to run the country.

The first thing that's going to happen after that person's elected, whether it be Poilievre or...

KEILAR: But that's not my question. That's not my question, Kevin.

My question is about...

O'LEARY: But that's the answer. The answer is, these tariffs will go away.

The cushion is a matter of months. It's not the end of the free world.

KEILAR: But he's still taking it in the shorts, the guy with the microbrewery in North Carolina, the guy making minibikes. They don't -- it's not like they get reimbursed. They're the ones who are eating the costs, while someone says that's not actually how it works, even though that is how it works.

So where's the intellectual honesty about -- I mean, if you're saying, hey, let's take the long view and this is how it's all going to play out, OK, but why not be intellectually honest about who then is paying the price in at least the short term?

[13:15:04]

O'LEARY: Well, if they have to in the short term, in the weeks ahead, raise their prices, go ahead, do that. That's very inflationary. I doubt they will. They will be like everybody else.

I understand the hysteria. I understand the gnashing of teeth. I understand the uncomfort. And everybody's focusing on this because we're watching sausage being made. We have never imposed tariffs on every country all at the same time. Never been done.

Now, you may not like that. That's Trump's style. A lot of people don't like his style. But I don't focus on the noise. I focus on the signal. The signal is, we're going to work this out as fast as we can, and we're just negotiating.

Now, if you really think that the administration can't wait for hyperinflation and that they want to do this intentionally, that's not economic. That's not a sound mind. And they are not dumb. This will get worked out.

But I'm just trying to bring some caution into this narrative saying, this is how you negotiate. When I negotiate to buy a plant, I don't go tell them what a great plant it is. I find all kinds of faults with it to tell them why they got to cut the price in half. And then I settle on whatever I can get, maybe a 20 percent discount.

That's exactly, exactly, exactly what's happening here.

KEILAR: All right, Kevin, it is always great to get your perspective.

Kevin O'Leary, thank you so much for being with us.

O'LEARY: Take care. Thank you. KEILAR: Still ahead, not a joke. President Trump does not dismiss the

idea of pursuing a third term in the White House. We will show you what the Constitution says about this.

SANCHEZ: Plus, Elon Musk going all in on Wisconsin, even donning a cheesehead. We're going to show you why he's pouring millions into the state's Supreme Court race, which he calls a super big deal which could change the course of human civilization.

Stay with CNN NEWS CENTRAL. We're back in just moments.

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[13:21:12]

KEILAR: Just weeks into his second and what is supposed to be the final term of his presidency -- that shouldn't be a controversial thing to say.

SANCHEZ: Yes.

KEILAR: And it should just be a factual thing.

President Trump is not ruling out a third term in the White House. That is a controversial thing to say, Trump telling NBC News -- quote -- "There are methods" by which he could do it, and he says he's not joking.

SANCHEZ: Yes, of course, the 22nd Amendment of the Constitution is specifically written to prevent that from happening.

And it says in part -- quote -- "No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice."

Let's discuss with Tim Naftali, a CNN presidential historian, the former director of the Nixon Presidential Library.

Tim, thanks so much for being with us.

When Trump says that there are methods to seeking a third term, are there any work-arounds to the 22nd Amendment?

TIM NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, let's use a term that the president seems to like. President Trump does not have the constitutional cards in this case.

There are only two scenarios by which you could constitutionally alter the Constitution and allow him to run for a third term, and they both involve finding 38 states. Donald Trump knows that there aren't 38 red states and there aren't likely to be 38 red states, particularly after the economic recession we are likely to have after liberation day.

KEILAR: OK, you see on social media a lot of people talking about like a Putin-Medvedev situation, right? Let's just throw it out there as a hypothetical. J.D. Vance runs. Trump runs as vice president. J.D. Vance steps aside, something, something -- I don't know, something like that. Trump ascends.

Possible? Not possible?

NAFTALI: Let me quote one of my favorite presidents. Not going to happen.

(LAUGHTER)

NAFTALI: The 12th Amendment of the Constitution -- that was George Herbert Walker Bush, for those of you who don't remember him.

The 12th Amendment of our Constitution stipulates that no one can be can be a vice presidential candidate if they're not constitutionally eligible to be president. So, no, he couldn't run as J.D. Vance's number two. We're not -- that kind of Putin-Medvedev scenario is not possible in our country.

So that leads you to the big question. And it's the question I have asked myself. Why is he talking this way? He knows. He's -- he's clever. He knows he doesn't have 38 states. And I think there are three possible answers, one, political theater. Donald Trump likes attention. He likes the fact we're talking about him right now.

Maybe he's also hoping some people are going to say some things that are a little bit outrageous, which he can use to fund-raise. Number two, we're living in an increasingly evident culture of impunity. The president is using fear to get his way with universities, to get his way with law firms, to get his way with Congress, to get his way with Canada and Greenland and Panama and Ukraine.

He's on a roll. And so why not talk about what he really wants, which is to stay in office as long as he can? The third is the January 6 scenario. The president, when he was in his first term, was capable of pushing for an unconstitutional and/or illegal way of staying in office. And maybe he is signaling to his supporters, start thinking about ways we can stay through 2028 and '29.

SANCHEZ: All right, Tim, the 22nd Amendment was ratified back in 1951, partially as a response to FDR having served so many terms.

Has this idea of a third term come up before, floated by anyone else?

NAFTALI: Oh, there -- when you have a president who's passionately supported by a group of Americans, you will find Americans, you might even find a member of Congress put up the balloon, trial balloon.

[13:25:11]

In the -- President Obama's time in office, there was a member of Congress who I think proposed a law to amend the Constitution so that President Obama could run for a third term. So this isn't unusual. What's unusual is for the president to start the conversation, and what makes this even more problematic is, it's a president who's already used unconstitutional, illegal means to stay in office.

So it's not like Donald Trump is a new president. This is not the first term. This is not Donald Trump just musing. He knows what he's talking about. We saw it on January 6, 2021. That's what makes these words particularly dangerous when he says them at this point, at this time.

SANCHEZ: Tim Naftali, we have to leave the conversation there. Appreciate the analysis. Thanks for joining us.

NAFTALI: Thanks, Boris. My pleasure.

SANCHEZ: So, he already stopped at the Pentagon. Now he's popping by the CIA, the agency's director inviting Elon Musk for a visit. Ahead, we're learning about what the tech billionaire might be doing there.

KEILAR: And no glass slippers. Cinderella stories are out. All four number one seeds are in.

We preview the men's Final Four coming up on CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

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