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Final Iowa Poll Shows Harris Up 28 Points Among Independent Women; Interview With Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA); The Battle For Control Of The House; Des Moines Register Releases Final Poll Before Election Day, Trump To Speak In North Carolina; Harris Expected To Join 'SNL' Tonight. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired November 02, 2024 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[19:00:52]

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Jessica Dean in New York. And we are in the final sprint with just three days now until election day, and throughout the day today, we have seen competing rallies as both of the candidates barnstormed the country. Moments ago, former president Trump finishing up in Salem, Virginia, a state that has historically leaned blue. It is one Trump believes is worth spending time in tonight, though.

And in the battleground state of North Carolina, Vice President Kamala Harris making her closing pitch to voters. And in the coming days, both candidates and their vice presidential nominees will be campaigning nonstop through Monday. Trump is holding rallies across the battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris's final stops also include Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

At this moment, the race is too close to call. With CNN's Poll of Polls showing both candidates virtually tied across those crucial blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And in what could be a historic total turnout, we have already seen more than 71 million Americans casting an early ballot.

And now a new data point. We have a new poll releasing right at this moment out of Iowa from the "Des Moines Register." And you'll want to take a look at this one. In a head to head matchup the "Des Moines Register" is showing Harris with 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent in the state of Iowa. Now that is within the margin of error, which is 3.4 percent. So that is no clear leader by CNN's standards.

But certainly a poll that's going to catch a lot of eyeballs. And here to discuss this is the editor-in-chief of "USA Today," Caren Bohan. "The Des Moines Register" of course is part of the "USA Today" network.

Caren, thank you so much for being here with us. This is surprising. Explain to us the significance of "The Des Moines Register's" final polling before election day, and what you all are gleaming from this and what it could mean for the rustbelt states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. CAREN BOHAN, EDITOR IN CHIEF, USA TODAY: A big surprise. Iowa had been

written off by the Harris campaign. And you showed where the candidates are going the final few days. None of them are going to Iowa. They are going to states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, you mentioned Virginia, North Carolina.

Iowa was assumed to be a state that Trump would win handily as he did in 2020 and 2016. One of the key things that is significant about it is Iowa is an upper Midwest state. So Harris's surprising strength there may indicate strength that she has in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

DEAN: Yes. It is fascinating. And tell us what's powering her numbers there.

BOHAN: So a couple of things are powering her numbers. Women, certainly. Older voters. Voters over 65. And when it comes to women voters, independent women are breaking strongly for her. We had poll results in September that showed a lead for Trump. And when Biden was still in the race, the Iowa polls showed a huge lead for Trump against Biden. And it does seem that abortion is a big issue here. Another thing that the poll turned up was the significance for many Harris voters of the issue of democracy.

DEAN: It's fascinating. All right, Caren Bohan, thank you for that insight into this poll that is just breaking right now from "The Des Moines Register." Thank you so much for that.

I want to bring in CNN chief national affairs correspondent Jeff Zeleny who's going to talk more about this new polling with us.

Jeff, this one is surprising. What do you make of this?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (via phone): Jessica, there's no doubt it is very surprising particularly to Iowa Democrats, who do not believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is within striking distance of Donald Trump. I'm thinking back to four years ago, as you remember well. We covered the Biden campaign together.

[19:05:01]

And at that point, former vice president Joe Biden went to Iowa in the final days, held a rally on the Friday before election day, thinking Iowa was within reach, end up losing the state by nearly nine points. So Democrats have definitely been sort of down on their luck in Iowa for several years. It was a state that Barack Obama won twice in 2008, again in 2012. But statewide, they have been a bit beleaguered.

But this poll certainly is interesting in many respects because, as Caren was saying, of course there are some similarities between some parts of Iowa and certainly the suburban voters, which we're seeing in battleground states. Women are largely supporting Vice President Harris and turning away from Donald Trump. But the idea that Iowa would be in play at this late hour certainly belies all of our other data. And should this, you know, actually be a sign of what is happening

next Tuesday, it would be a blowout, and no one expects that. The Harris campaign is not predicting that at all. None of our numbers forecast. But I think interestingly, it just shows in the suburbs and among women, the gender gap is clear. And also in this poll it shows the key congressional races in Iowa also Democrats are within their grasp of.

So I think Iowa is certainly always politically significant. Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses. He's won the state in all of his races. And virtually everyone on both sides of the aisle will be very surprised if he does not do so again next week.

DEAN: And Jeff, you of course worked at "The Des Moines Register." You have lived there in Iowa. Can you just give people context for this poll in particular? And what people -- it's a very valuable poll in the state of Iowa. But also nationwide it's very respected.

ZELENY: It absolutely has been a gold standard of polling. And., you know, and we are awashed in polls. I think everyone at this late stage of a campaign is a bit, you know, not sure which poll to look at. There are so many. And there is no doubt, "The Des Moines Register" poll, Ann Salzer, the pollster, is definitely the gold standard.

However, I think, you know, the polls have some limitations. This is potentially an outlier of what we've seen in other polling in Iowa. Talking to sources on both sides in congressional races and other things, they are not seen quite this. But I think just the bigger picture here is that Iowa has been a key example of the changing for the face of battleground states in America.

Iowa was always a key battleground as was Ohio, as was Florida. Things have changed. The population has shifted. Now we see the blue wall states in the north and the sunbelt states in the south, as the main sort of routes to 270. If the Harris campaign saw any indication of possibility there, Vice President Harris would be on a plane to campaign there. The same with former president Donald Trump. He would be campaigning there as well.

But we shall see. This is a good reminder that the voters have the say here. And for all of the polls and things, we shall see on Tuesday. So we should take a deep breath, look at all these polls as sort of a, you know, a piece of information, but not certainly the final say in this. But these numbers, as a headline, my many years watching Iowa, I'm a bit -- I would be remarkably surprised if this was the outcome next Tuesday.

DEAN: All right. Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much. It's always good to have you. Nobody better to talk Iowa politics with and the campaign with the Jeff. Thank you so much.

Let's go back now to Caren Bohan, again, the editor-in-chief for "USA Today," which is a part -- "The Des Moines Register" is part of.

Caren, show us and talk to us about what Iowans are going to wake up to on the front page tomorrow. BOHAN: So Iowans are going to wake up to this news that I think is

going to surprise a lot of them. But they are very familiar, as Jeff said, "The Des Moines Register" poll really is the gold standard of polls. And so it's very trusted. And not only is this going to get a lot of attention in Iowa, but it could affect turnout on both sides. If you think about, the Iowa Democrats may be more motivated to go to the polls to support Harris, buoyed by this result.

And you may see Republicans more motivated to go to the polls because, you know, of alarm over what this might mean for Trump. So it will be interesting to see what happens when this story publishes and when it lands on people's doorsteps.

DEAN: Certainly. And as we heard Jeff kind of walk us through, this is an outlier at this point. What do you all make about that in terms of the methodology that you've used, and again this has long been a gold standard poll but it is showing a very surprising result? What's your reaction to that?

[19:10:06]

BOHAN: So I went back and I looked at how well it's predicted the presidential outcome in Iowa. And it's really striking. It predicted it accurately within one or two points in the last two presidential cycles. And Ann Selzer, who conducts the poll for "The Des Moines Register," as Jeff mentioned, she's highly respected. Iowa is what she does. The Midwest is what she does. She did do a poll interestingly in Indiana in 2008.

And that proved surprisingly prescient with the surprising result there. It showed -- the final poll there showed Barack Obama winning Indiana by one point. And in fact, he won Indiana by one point in 2008. So it is an outlier, but it's a poll that people take very seriously. People who know polling know that this is a poll that you do not dismiss.

DEAN: Caren Bohan, again, thanks so much for sticking with us. We really appreciate it.

Just taking the top line again here, it is this new "Des Moines Register" poll showing Harris at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent. That is within the margin of error by CNN's standards. No clear leader but quite a development in terms of seeing this result in a poll out of Iowa.

Caren, thanks so much.

BOHAN: Thank you, Jessica.

DEAN: And let's go from Iowa to the crucial battleground state, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, joining us now Democratic Congressman Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania.

Congressman, thanks so much for being here with us.

REP. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-PA): Yes, great to be with you. DEAN: So here we are, three days out. Poll after poll coming out of

Pennsylvania shows it couldn't be tighter. Just the tightest race there in Pennsylvania. I know you are in Philadelphia. I'm curious, what are you seeing? You're on the ground. What are you seeing, what are you hearing?

BOYLE: I feel like the whole world has sort of decided to move to Philadelphia over the last 48 to 72 hours because we have media from literally all over the world. We have people who have driven very far, I mean, I was out canvassing and I talked to someone who'd actually driven here from Ohio, six hours, just in order to canvas here in my hometown. And so there is no shortage of activity.

I think people realized that Pennsylvania will likely determine this election. That was the case in 2016 when it was just a half a percentage point margin. It was the case in 2020 when it was just a 1 percent margin. And I fully expect that yet again it will be 1 percent or less for either candidate.

DEAN: Yes. And so in that vein, what would you say is one thing that's making you feel positive about the state of this race as someone who's supporting Kamala Harris and as a Democrat? And on the flipside, what's the thing that makes you more anxious or that you're really trying to keep an eye out?

BOYLE: Well, first, I have to say that news of the Ann Selzer poll about Iowa has me a bit pleasantly surprised. I fully expected those results would show Donald Trump with the lead in Iowa certainly somewhere from mid to high single digits. Now while it is only one poll, that has been a pretty good indicator of where things in Wisconsin and Michigan, two other upper Midwest states, may be as they're demographically pretty similar.

Here in Pennsylvania, I would say that ever since June of 2022, once the Dobbs decision came down, Democrats in Pennsylvania, whether it's the governor's race or the Senate race or anonymous state legislative races, we have outperformed the polling very consistently over a two plus year period. That has me feeling quite optimistic combined with all the energy and activity that I see on the Democratic side.

Since you asked if there is one thing that would keep me up at night or has me concerned, it would actually relate to polling. In 2016 and 2020, most pollsters missed this hidden Trump vote because he seems to draw out this small percentage of people who just had proven impossible to poll don't come out for any other election, but only when Trump's name is on the ballot. Now the posters have told us they think that they've corrected the problem.

They said it was non-response bias in 2020. Some of it had to do with the pandemic. I want to believe them. But, you know, I will not feel fully comfortable until once we see the results late on election night.

DEAN: And of course there's also the question of the House, and can Democrats flip the House? Will Republicans hold the House? They have a very, very slim majority right now. [19:15:03]

You all would like to take away from them. I know -- are you -- there are a number of races in your state that are close. What are you hearing from your colleagues and how do you think that might shake out based on what you're hearing and seeing right now?

BOYLE: Yes. A couple of thoughts. First, I do believe that -- and I'm always cautious about these predictions. But I do believe Democrats are the favorite now to win the House. We have three great Democratic incumbents who are in close seats. All three of them are leading in their polls and actually doing better right now than where they were two years ago. And they were in close races two years ago.

We also have a wonderful chance to defeat Scott Perry, the leader of the Freedom Caucus. He is a district that's based in the Harrisburg area. I appreciate the fact that the Republican speaking went to campaign in that district this week and he was caught on video admitting that Republicans still plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. That is something they have been trying to do for 14 years. It was literally the first thing Trump attempted to do when he was president.

I think him saying the quiet part out loud will help us not only in that district, but also help remind voters just what a threat Donald Trump and the Republican majority would be to their healthcare.

DEAN: All right. Congressman Brendan Boyle, we will see how it all unfolds. Once again Pennsylvania just at the center of the political universe. Thanks so much for your time.

BOYLE: Thank you.

DEAN: Still ahead, it's not just the race for the White House as we just mentioned. Control of Congress also on the line. We're going to look at consequential races and what could be on Speaker Johnson's agenda if Republicans maintain the House.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:21:28]

DEAN: Well, the battle to win the White House is the main event on Tuesday. The battle for who controls the House of Representatives is shaping up to be a tough fight for both parties.

CNN's Manu Raju caught up with Speaker Johnson as he fights to keep Republican control.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The office of speaker of the House declared vacant.

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's been a chaotic two years in the GOP-led House.

(CROSSTALK)

RAJU: An ousted speaker in rampant infighting. Now Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to do what once seemed improbable, hang on to power and even grow their razor-thin majority.

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA): Mr. President, I'm here in New York.

RAJU: As he barnstormed more than 20 states in October alone, Johnson is hoping to turn out the MAGA base even in Democratic-leaning districts, and making a pitch for unified GOP control of Washington.

JOHNSON: Everybody in the world is watching what happens on Long Island and in the state of New York. That is not an exaggeration.

RAJU: Trump, meanwhile, relying on Johnson and saying this last week at Madison Square Garden.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He and I have a secret. We'll tell you what it is when the race is over.

RAJU: But Johnson now says that simply meant getting out the vote, even if the Democrats fear he and Trump will try to block a Harris victory.

I know you said that this is a get out the vote effort.

JOHNSON: Yes.

RAJU: But have you and him talked about not accepting the election results if Harris wins?

JOHNSON: Of course not. I've taken an oath to uphold the Constitution. And we are going to do our job. This is not -- this shouldn't even be a question or a controversy.

RAJU: So if Harris wins, you'd accept the results?

JOHNSON: Yes. Look, I'm going to qualify this and this is going to make everybody freak out again. If it's a free and fair election, I'm saying the exact same thing that Jamie Raskin is saying.

RAJU (voice-over): But it's Trump who, once again, is pushing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

Trump is already sowing doubts about the election, about Pennsylvania. Does that concern you?

JOHNSON: Trump is not sowing doubt. What he and all of us are trying to do is have accountability to ensure that we don't have hijinks and irregularities.

RAJU (voice-over): To keep power in the House, Republicans have to defend 16 seats in districts Joe Biden won, including in California and New York, as they target five Democratic districts that Trump carried in 2020. That means the next House majority will likely be narrow once again, and another recipe for gridlock.

So why do you guys deserve another two years in power?

JOHNSON: Well, we did pass a lot of legislation. It's died on Chuck Schumer's desk and --

RAJU: You had trouble passing your own legislation on the House, too.

JOHNSON: On occasion, but we also had some big landmark legislation sent over there and it died because the Democrats control the Senate.

RAJU: But you have a narrow majority, no matter what. And you had a difficult time with this last narrow majority.

JOHNSON: Well, I had the most narrow majority in U.S. history. I'm convinced we're going to have a larger majority this time. And then if we have unified government, I think everybody on my side is going to be in a much better mood. And I think they'll want to be part of the reform agenda. And not a speed bump in a way.

RAJU (voice-over): A race for the House poised to be the most expensive ever, with Democrats spending over $476 million on the air, outpacing the GOP by more than $100 million. But Democrats fear that a unified GOP Washington will leave Trump unchecked including to target his enemies.

TRUMP: It's the enemy from within. All the scum that we have to deal with.

RAJU: If he wins, he's talked about going after his enemies. Would you dissuade him from doing that?

JOHNSON: He's not going to go after his enemies.

RAJU: He said that repeatedly.

JOHNSON: Listen, the Democrats have engaged in lawfare. So all this hyperbole trying to scare people, it's nonsense. That's not going to happen. We're going to follow the law.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[19:25:04]

DEAN: Manu Raju, thank you so much for that.

And for more of what to expect in Tuesday's election and the major shifts in power that could happen in House and Senate, we're joined by Mychael Schnell, congressional reporter with "The Hill."

Thanks so much for being here.

MYCHAEL SCHNELL, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, THE HILL: Hey, happy to be here.

DEAN: We just heard Manu's piece there and he showed the math. And when you look at the key races that we're all going to be watching, so many of them are in New York and California.

SCHNELL: Yes. Those are going to be the key states to watch when we're talking about control of the House. And it's because of the reason that Manu laid out. There are 17 districts overall, a number them in New York and California, that President Biden won back in 2020 but Republicans currently control them. So those are top pick-up targets for Democrats. We've seen top Democrats fan across the country to stomp with candidates.

In those districts similarly we've seen top Republicans go to those same battlegrounds as well to help defend their incumbents. Those are going to be extremely tight races and the outcome is going to have a major impact on who controls the House next year.

DEAN: And you mentioned the surrogates that have been going out. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has been out. He made some comments, though, on possibly repealing Obamacare. Possibly repealing the CHIPS Act. How might those comments affect these races? And is there any indication those our landing or are they just passing?

SCHNELL: Yes. They were difficult controversies for Mike Johnson this week for a couple of reasons. A, they're embarrassing. They take the Republican Party off message. Particularly that example about the CHIPS and Science Act. You heard Mike Johnson say he would work to repeal it. And Brendan Williams, who's one of the most memorable House Republicans this year, he's running in one of those districts in New York, he said that he would work every day to try to convince Johnson to keep that law in place.

It's a big deal in Brendan Williams' district. So then forced Mike Johnson to walk it back. Similarly with the Obamacare comments, Mike Johnson said one thing and then he had to issue a statement later on playing cleanup. So in terms of the campaigns, these distractions are not helpful but also they could potentially be unhelpful on the ground.

Some districts, for example, Brendan Williams' district, they really rely and they benefitted from some of this legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act. There are millions of voters out there who benefit from Obamacare and want it to be kept intact. So these comments could also be tricky when you talk about the ballot box.

And then finally, one more thing that's worth mentioning, Jessica, sort of on the other side of this coin, is that Mike Johnson could be potentially running for speaker or minority leader in just a few weeks. And there are a number of hardcore Republicans in his conference who likely want to repeal Obamacare, likely want to rip away the CHIPS and Science Act, hearing from Johnson that he wouldn't be supportive of that, that could potentially hurt him when he's trying to wrangle support.

DEAN: Right. Because there is the broad elections and then there's -- what's going to be going on in his own conference. And they're going to have to figure it out. And he is -- it's such a small group, anybody can cause problems, as we've seen over and over again to your point. What more do you know about his potential -- to continue leading the

House Republicans?

SCHNELL: Yes. Mike Johnson has been very clear that he wants to continue leading House Republicans as speaker of the House. He says that he has a good chance of that happening. Now of course any Republican being speaker of the House that's going to mean Republicans need to win the House in, what, three days now. That is very much still up in question. Forecasters are saying the House comes down to a coin flip.

And then you talk about the margins. And not to get too much into the nitty-gritty, but we remember what happened with Kevin McCarthy when he tried to get the speakership almost two years ago. Because of the slim majority House Republicans had, that small group was able to deny the gavel to him for about 14 rounds. He finally won it on the 15th.

DEAN: Yes.

SCHNELL: So depending on, A, if Republicans win the House and B, how big that margin is, that's going to impact Johnson's chances at remaining speaker. Now if Republicans don't win the House and Democrats take the majority, Johnson has not been clear on whether or not he would seek minority leader.

I've spoken to a number of House Republicans on this. They do not expect that he would seek that position.

DEAN: All right. We shall see. Mychael Schnell, always good to see you. Thanks so much.

SCHNELL: Thanks, Jessica.

DEAN: Still ahead, a new Iowa poll just released showing the state could be in play for Vice President Harris. Pollster and communications strategist Frank Luntz joins us live to break that down and more.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:33:55]

DEAN: We have said it over and over again, the 2024 presidential race is a tossup, but plenty of pollsters working overtime to make sense of all of the numbers and get new data.

Tonight, new polling from the Des Moines Register shows Harris with a three-point advantage in Iowa. That is still within the margin of error by CNN standards, that means no clear leader.

However, that is a surprising poll to come out of Iowa pollster and communication strategist. Frank Luntz, is joining us now. I want to talk -- a couple of things I want to get out here, but first Frank, it is good to see you. And second of all, what do you think broadly of what we are hearing out of the Des Moines Register poll?

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER AND COMMUNICATION STRATEGIST: I do want to say that half of the people out there are really mad at me because they support Harris and they think I am for Trump. And the other half are really mad at me because they think I support Trump. You just cannot make anyone happy so it is nice to be seen.

I am not sure about the Iowa poll because there are so many undecideds, 47 to 44 means there is a most 10 percent that have not made up their minds. We know that is not the case. So, I'm wondering whether or not the people were pushed enough when say undecided or they do not want to make a commitment, they actually have some leaning.

We have seen this in our polling; only two percent of Americans truly have no choice and that's because they dislike both Trump and Harris. And in this case, it is showing up really significantly and it just is a -- it's a surprise to me.

[19:35:27]

DEAN: If you dig into these numbers, it is women who are fueling Harris' rise here. An earlier poll in September essentially have those numbers flipped. It is older and independent women that they say are driving the numbers for Harris. It is also worth noting, Frank, that there is a six-week abortion ban that went into effect earlier this summer in Iowa. I am curious what you make of those pieces and if they go together or if they don't.

LUNTZ: They do go together and in fact, this is a neatly designed jigsaw puzzle. For Harris to win, she has to turn out female voters, most particularly women 18 to 34. Those who may not have an interest in politics normally. Those who do not normally vote in elections. Particularly, these women who'll be a first and second time voter, they are brand-new to the political process and they can make the difference if they turn out and we do not know if they will or not.

One of the things I am looking at most is the abortion issue. It is the number one or number two issue among young women and it is definitely motivating them to participate.

DEAN: Let's talk to about kind of some your broad thoughts as we close out the campaign season, which is kind of a crazy thing. You've said any gaffe, mistake, bad "anything" could really sink either campaign at what is a delicate moment. Tell us more about that.

LUNTZ: You had Joe Biden doing it when he called Trump voters garbage. You had Donald Trump's rally in Madison Square Garden marred by that stupid comedian who made the comment about Puerto Rico. These are things that resonate, that they reverberate in these final few days.

And so, the goal at this point, from both campaigns is do no harm, and yet they seem to be doing it, but they've -- either way they have two disparate goals.

In Trump's case, everyone who has decided to vote for him has already made that decision already. There are no undecideds, literally none. So, Trump's goal is to motivate, is to speak to the base, is to make sure that every Trump supporter actually casts a ballot on Tuesday. For Harris, there are more undecided and there is more doubt about her, they don't know her as well and there is more room to climb.

And so, if I'm a Trump strategist, I am going back to my base to make sure they participate. If I am a Harris strategist, I am still trying to appeal to those undecideds, maybe a few Republicans who do not like Trump. Maybe some Independents who ideologically agree with Republicans on economic policy, but agree with Democrats on social policy.

In the end, I am going to be much less strident because I'm trying to go for those votes who are voters, who are conflicted.

DEAN: Yes, and the Harris campaign has said that they see in their data that these last-minute voters making up their minds are breaking their way, they think, in a way positive for them. What you think about that? Do you think that's right?

LUNTZ: I think -- what are they going to tell you? I mean this is which bothers me so much when you put partisans, where I am trying to be so straight. You put partisans on, they are going to tell you that everything's breaking their way. They are not going to acknowledge to you that something isn't because that's become a headline in tomorrow's newspaper or on tomorrow's Sunday shows. So, they're going to say this to you.

I don't see that. I saw voters moving -- the last undecideds moving towards Trump because they have questions about Harris, but they weren't happy about it. Make no mistake, these final persuadables do not like Trump the person, but they are more likely to support him on inflation and immigration, which matters so much.

They do like Harris as an individual but they're sure what she's going to do -- the first hour, the first day, the first week and that is why there are persuadables, absolutely in the camp, and that's why these final 48 to 72 hours matter so much.

DEAN: Yes, all right, we're going to see how they play out. Frank Luntz, thank you for being here.

LUNTZ: Pleasure, thank you.

Still ahead, Trump and Harris focus on the southern battleground states. We're going to go back to North Carolina where Trump is set to hold his third rally of the day.

You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:44:32]

DEAN: It is going to be a late night for Trump supporters in the battleground state of North Carolina. The former president headed back to the swing state tonight for a rally in Greensboro and that is where CNN's Alayna Treene joins us live from this evening.

Alayna, you are getting some new insight from the Trump campaign. What can you tell us?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: We are and I should, just you know, Disclaimer at the front of this, Jessica is that this is typical. We are going to hear a lot of pre-election spin from both campaigns arguing how confident, they are feeling though of course behind-the- scenes, that is not exactly the full picture.

But look, Jason Miller, I caught up with him moments ago. He essentially argued that the Trump campaign is very closely watching and analyzing this early voting data that they are seeing, these early voting returns and they are trying to make the case that one: They are feeling encouraged that there is a low turnout currently among the Black voters, a key demographic that Harris has been doing well with.

[19:45:28]

But then they are also trying to argue that Harris' performance so far with men is worse than Donald Trump's performance currently with women. We have covered this extensively, Jessica and I have reported on this a lot over the past several days, which is that, the Trump campaign is increasingly concerned about that widening gender gap.

They have so far been unable to solve for Harris' over performance or for better performance I should say with female voters. And that's particularly important, noting that right now if you look at the early voting data that women are out-pacing men.

I want you to take a listen because Trump sort of addressed this, this morning, kind of, said the quiet part out loud about his struggles to court female voters. Listen to how he put it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R) FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And these horrible people back there said well Trump is soft with women. I do not believe I'm soft with women. They say Trump is -- he is very good with men. I don't know, thank you, men. Thank you, men.

No, I am through the roof with men and she ain't catching those men, let me tell you. No, I'm great with men, but I'm sort of like soft with the women.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TREENE: Now, Jessica, one thing that is definitely clear and Trump is right, is that he is doing very well with men. The question is whether or not they will turn out in numbers that the Trump campaign needs for them to be successful on Tuesday.

So, that is what you will hear him continue to talk about later tonight in North Carolina when he arrives on that stage behind me and throughout the next push to election day, given how incredibly close the campaign recognizes this election is going to be, and how badly they need men to show up to kind of counteract a lot of the female votes that we have seen in the early voting data -- Jessica.

DEAN: All right, Alayna Treene on the campaign trail in North Carolina, thank you so much for that.

Just in, to CNN, we are learning the Harris campaign is making a previously unannounced stop tonight in New York City. The question is why. We are going to have more on that in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:52:20]

DEAN: Breaking news now, Vice President Kamala Harris making unannounced visit to New York City. CNN chief media analyst Brian Stelter is joining us now. And Brian, we are now learning why.

BRIAN STELTER, CNN CHIEF MEDIA ANALYST: Yes, the most obvious reason it is "Live from New York," Jess. And it is confirmed by our colleague Priscilla Alvarez that Harris will be on NBC's "Saturday Night Live" in just a few hours.

Normally, around this time, "SNL" is going through rehearsals and of course the live broadcast just before midnight. It makes, of course, complete sense. The Democratic nominee wants to be on "SNL" in the days before the election. It is almost like Donald Trump calling in to "Fox & Friends" this morning. This is Harris' chance to be playing with the home team, so to speak.

She knows that "SNL" or at least the actors are cheering her on. But it is going to be interesting to see what she says and what the actor say around her because some of the comedians have been quite challenging toward Harris this fall. So that's going to be notable.

Maya Rudolph, of course, has played Harris on the show. We'll see if Rudolph and Harris show up there together. But this does come as a surprise.

It was an unexpected change in her schedule. She was supposed to be flying to Detroit tonight. We know she has a campaign event tomorrow morning in Detroit at a church in Michigan, so she'll probable head there after "SNL." This all kind of makes sense as things fall into place with Harris.

And as you know, Jess, we have seen so many celebrity endorsements of Harris in the past few days. You might think about her surprise appearance on "SNL" as a part of the series of celebrity appearances.

DEAN: Yes, for sure and it was just interesting to see our colleagues and reporters we know who were traveling with her to say we have been diverted to New York City and we are not sure what is going on. Now, we do know as you said it.

It is quite obvious when you say it out loud, "Live from New York."

All right, Brian Stelter, thanks so much. From the first votes to the critical count, no one covers election night in America like CNN. We have special live coverage starting Tuesday at 4:00 PM Eastern, only on CNN.

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[19:58:44]

DEAN: Tonight at 9:00 Eastern, catch an all new episode of "Have I Got News For You" with host Roy Wood, Jr. and team captains Amber Ruffin and Michael Ian Black. Guests this week will include former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci and comedian Sam Jay.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROY WOOD JR., AMERICAN COMEDIAN AND ACTOR: The three facts about Jeff Bezos seen here guessing what number you're thinking. Facts are, his biological father was a prominent unicyclist. He owns over 1,000 pairs of cowboy boots. He's been a guest DJ at several Chainsmokers shows. Which one is the truth. I'll start on this side.

MICHAEL IAN BLACK, AMERICAN ACTOR, WRITER, AND COMEDIAN: Well, we know there's no such thing as a prominent unicyclist. That's not a thing. We know he can afford a thousand pairs of cowboy boots. We're going to go with a thousand pairs of cowboy boots.

SAM JAY, COMEDIAN: Yes, because he wear it like that.

AMBER RUFFIN, AMERICAN COMEDIAN AND WRITER: Anthony thinks it's three. Tell the man why, Anthony.

ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, because I know he likes the Chainsmokers. And nobody's got a thousand pairs of cowboy boots.

RUFFIN: Inside information.

SCARAMUCCI: I don't think so. That would be nuts.

WOOD JR.: Jeff Bezos' biological father was a prominent unicyclist.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DEAN: The new episode of "Have I Got News For You" airs at 9:00 Eastern and Pacific right here on CNN.

Thanks so much for joining me here this evening. Do remember to turn your clocks back an hour before you go to sleep, just a heads up for you.

I'm Jessica Dean, I'm going to see you again tomorrow starting at 2:00 PM Eastern.

An encore of "Real-Time" with Bill Maher is up next. Have a great night, everyone.

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