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New Iowa Poll Suggests Harris Leading Trump by 3 Points; Trump Addresses Gender Gap at North Carolina Rally; Final Stretch: Harris Campaign Pushes Unity in Georgia; Iran Vows "Teeth-Breaking" Response to Israel and U.S.; Death Toll Continues to Climb Amid Search and Rescue Efforts. Aired 5-6 am ET
Aired November 03, 2024 - 05:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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[05:00:32]
KIM BRUNHUBER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada and around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. This is CNN Newsroom.
A surprising new poll has caught the attention of both the Trump and Harris campaigns just days before the election. We'll look at the significance. The two candidates keep up their blitz of the battleground states this weekend, including all important Georgia. We'll discuss how Harris and Trump are being received there.
And signs of the times, researchers explore what online searches for political yard signs and merchandise tell us about the race.
ANNOUNCER: Live from Atlanta, this is CNN Newsroom with Kim Brunhuber.
BRUNHUBER: We are now only two days away from the U.S. presidential election and later today, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be wrapping their last weekend on the campaign trail. Trump is set to make his final pitch along the East Coast, stopping in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Harris will be in Michigan as she works to maintain the blue wall.
As of now, more than 71.5 million people have voted early. The contest remains tight, but a surprising new poll is turning heads. The Des Moines Register has Harris leading Trump by three points among likely voters in Iowa, a state Trump tenderly won twice before. The result is within the margin of error, but has raised spirits among Democrats in the home stretch.
Now, the Trump campaign quickly dismissed the poll. And while Trump himself didn't acknowledge the survey while campaigning Saturday, he did make a reference to the size of a rally he once held in Iowa and a potential sign that his team is closely watching the state.
Meanwhile, Harris' running mate Tim Walz was asked about the poll and said he now wants to visit Iowa. CNN spoke with the editor-in-chief of USA Today, which has the Des Moines Register in its network. And while she concedes the survey's results are surprising, she does highlight how respected this particular poll is. Here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CAREN BOHAN, EDITOR IN CHIEF, USA TODAY: So, Iowans are going to wake up to this news that I think is going to surprise a lot of them. The Des Moines Register poll really is the gold standard of polls. And so it's very trusted. And not only is this going to get a lot of attention in Iowa, but it could -- it could affect turnout on both sides. If you think about it, the Iowa Democrats may be more motivated to go to the polls to support Harris, really buoyed by this result. And you may see Republicans more motivated to go to the polls because, you know, of alarm over what this might mean for Trump. It is an outlier, but it's a poll that people take very seriously. People who know polling know that this is a poll that you don't dismiss.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: Donald Trump rallied his supporters in Battleground, North Carolina, on Saturday claiming the suburbs are under attack and women have to be protected. He also acknowledged the widening gender gap that has some Republicans worried. Here he is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: And these horrible people back there said, well, Trump is soft with women. I don't believe I'm soft with -- they said Trump is soft. He's very good with men. I don't know. Thank you, men. Thank you, men. No, I'm through the roof with men. She ain't catching us men, let me tell you. No, I'm great with men, but I'm sort of like soft with the women's stuff.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: Second rally in North Carolina, the former president called himself the father of fertilization while touting his support for in vitro fertilization. The fertility treatment has come under threat after Trump appointed conservative Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. Trump also railed against critical race theory and attacked the transgender community.
TRUMP: We will get critical race theory and transgender insanity the hell out of our schools.
(APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: And we will keep men, of course, out of women's sports.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: The former president made a stop in the blue state of Virginia on Saturday, telling the crowd that if he beats Harris there, he will win the entire election. But Republicans haven't won a presidential race in Virginia since 2004. Now, Kamala Harris was also in North Carolina, as well as here in
Georgia. Polling in both states is, as in the other battlegrounds, extremely close. So, as you can see, neither nominee has established a clear advantage.
[05:05:03]
In Charlotte, the U.S. Vice President stressed the high stakes at play, while also addressing division. Here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, U.S. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We have three days left in one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime. And we still have work to do. We still have work to do. And we have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. We're done with that. We're done. We're exhausted with it.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: Earlier, Harris pushed for unity during her stop here in Atlanta. CNN's Eva McKend has more.
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EVA MCKEND, CNN U.S. NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: The Vice President's closing message trained on unity and bringing people together, even those who disagree with her. As she tells voters she's running to be president of all of America. The Vice President also routinely touting her love for Gen Z and putting great emphasis on first-time voters, both here in Georgia and in North Carolina, having them introduce her. But this all comes at a time when many Americans say they are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. We asked her about this in an exclusive interview in Atlanta. Take a listen.
HARRIS: I know grocery prices are still high. The folks who are watching this interview right now, I know grocery prices are still high. We need to bring them down. We need to deal with the cost of housing. We have a supply shortage. Part of my plan is not only to work with the private sector to cut through the tape so we can build more housing in America, but also to get first-time homebuyers a $25,000 downpayment assistance so they can just get their foot in the door.
MCKEND: And we're seeing Vice President Harris pick up a slew of celebrity endorsements, some artists appearing at her rallies in the battleground states. And the campaign will tell you that that's all aimed to gin up excitement and get people excited about this process to turn out to vote. It matters in places where the margins are so slim.
In 2020, President Biden won the state of Georgia by just under 12,000 votes, Vice President Harris trying to replicate that success here in Georgia and the other battleground states. Eva McKend, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: And a judge in the swing state of Georgia has rejected a Republican-backed lawsuit that would have stopped people from hand- delivering mail-in ballots. Fulton County was named in the suit, a county Donald Trump falsely claimed defrauded him in 2020. It's a Democratic stronghold that includes the city of Atlanta and is home to 11% of the state's voters.
Republicans wanted to stop election offices opening on weekends to allow hand-return of absentee ballots. The ban would have affected at least five other populous counties that also tend to vote Democratic.
All right, with us now with more is Rahul Bali. He's a politics reporter for WABE Radio and he joins us from here in Atlanta.
Good to see you again. Thanks so much for being on here with us early in the morning. So I want to get to those legal issues in a moment, but I just want to start with the Harris campaign because you were at the Harris rally. So what was the mood there?
RAHUL BALI, POLITICS REPORTER, WABE RADIO: You know, in your report you just heard, you got a lot of it covered, but you go back to what you heard from the Vice President. And it's this idea of, do you want to see former President Trump back in office? Do you want those four years to happen again?
So that was another message you got from both the Vice President, other speakers, and, of course, attendees. And you're also actually hearing it. So later that night, I went to a Trump campaign town hall. And again, you're kind of hearing that message too, of the idea of, do you want four more years of the Biden then being the Vice President, Harris' administration? So you're getting that message from both sides.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, it's such a tight race and polls kind of confirm that. How confident is the Trump campaign here in Georgia?
BALI: The big thing you've heard from them is they feel like the early voting numbers in Georgia, and for those in our audience who don't know, 55% of Georgia's seven million active voters have already cast a ballot. They believe that those votes are leaning towards them, that this idea that low propensity voters on the Republican side, they're going out to vote for the former president. So they're confident that those numbers are leaning towards them.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see whether that pans out. For the Democrats, a lot was made about the need to reach Black voters. I know Harris spent a lot of time here in Atlanta with a particular outreach to Black men. Any sense whether Democrats feel confident this will pay off at the ballot box?
BALI: Some of them are talking to me about the idea that there will be a large turnout of Black voters on election day.
[05:10:01] You know, when you look at some of the numbers around the state, you see the strong numbers in the Atlanta area where you have large Black populations. But in some of those counties outside of Atlanta, you see those numbers a little lower.
It's interesting, later today, former President Bill Clinton will be going to Augusta, Georgia, Richmond County, one of those strongholds that the numbers we've been watching have been on the low side.
BRUNHUBER: Interesting. I know things on the ground are tense. I know the Georgia Board of Elections has provided millions in extra security for election workers, including things like panic buttons. Are there real expectations of violence, do you think?
BALI: There's concerns about it. My fellow reporter has been doing in- depth reporting on it. So there are concerns about it. You know, people are nervous, but also people are optimistic and hopeful.
So are there concerns about it? Yes. Will you see one of the things that was mentioned, plainclothes officers at polling locations? (Technical difficulty) So you may also see that. But you did mention, you know, there's the access to panic buttons for election workers. Yes, are there concerns? Absolutely. Have measures been taken? Absolutely.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah. All right. We'll have to leave it there, but really appreciate having you on again, Rahul Bali. Thank you so much.
President Joe Biden has largely stayed out of the campaign spotlight lately, but he returned to his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, on Saturday to campaign for Harris. He spoke to a dozen -- a few dozen union workers slamming Trump's plan for the economy and saying it includes another giant tax cut for the wealthy, and he vowed Harris would continue to support unions as he did during his presidency. Here he is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, (D) U.S. PRESIDENT: Yes, this is the most important election any of us have ever voted in. More is at stake in the direction of this country than ever before. And I promise you, you may have difficulty, you may disagree with some of the things that Harris- Walz false administration, but I wouldn't have picked her if I didn't think she had the exact view I do about hardworking people. I'm serious. And so, look, folks, we need to let Kamala as president.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: While there may be no more important state to the presidential race than Pennsylvania, and on election night, both campaigns will be keeping a close eye on the Philadelphia suburbs. That's where the votes can push former President Trump or Vice President Harris over the finish line. CNN's John King visited one of those key communities.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Swarthmore is a postcard of suburban life, leafy, friendly. Philadelphia, just a 30-minute commute by train. Home to Shannon Elliott, her family and her small business.
SHANNON ELLIOTT, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: We have a beautiful college campus, woods, trails, close proximity to a lot of different things, but just often a quiet, close-knit community.
KING (voice-over): This is southeast Pennsylvania, Delaware County, a place where Kamala Harris needs to win big if she hopes to claim the biggest of the battleground prizes.
ELLIOTT: And a lot of the messages I get are more panic. And so I feel panicked.
KING (voice-over): Elliott's vote is not in question.
ELLIOTT: I don't want to go back there. I see how he -- how he treats people and bullies people. And these are things I tell my teenage kids not to do. Why would I want to see my president doing that?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You need a sign?
KING (voice-over): Harris needs to match or beat Biden's 2020 numbers in the suburbs.
ELLIOTT: I'll fix it up.
KING (voice-over): But Elliott hears hints of apathy and of sexism, hints of 2016.
ELLIOTT: And I think people were afraid to vote for a woman once it got down to the final choice and they made a mistake. And now here we are again with that same decision facing people. And I'm worried -- I'm worried it's going to happen again.
KING (voice-over): Delaware County is reliably blue, but there are pockets where Trump runs strong.
KRISTIN CAPARRA, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: I'm most upset about the lack of a border and the lack of our sovereignty and how that's eroded in the last three years. And I feel as an American citizen, I'm underserved, overtaxed. I'm kind of diminished.
KING (voice-over): Kristin Caparra registered Republican at the age of 18 back in 1988. The Philadelphia suburbs were red then, but Caparra is outnumbered in her Drexel Hill neighborhood now.
CAPARRA: We vote on different sides of the aisle, but we are proud Americans. The American flag is outside all of our homes. And so I'm -- I'm very comfortable there.
KING (voice-over): This is her New Jersey beach cottage, Lola and Taylor, her friendly labs.
CAPARRA: Push on to your left there.
KING (voice-over): And this is back in Delaware County where Caparra teaches figure skating. She believes Trump will run stronger this year because of concerns about inflation, the border, and whether Harris is too liberal.
CAPARRA: Well, I think right now there's a very quiet Trump vote. He -- he does have some bizarre behaviors, but at the end of the day, I -- I feel he's patriotic and I feel he loves this country. And my version of this country, a little more dearly -- dearly than the other side.
[05:15:11]
KING (voice-over): The suburbs settle close races here.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: Kamala Harris made a surprise appearance in Saturday Night Live's cold open sketch. She gave her fictional self-play by Maya Rudolph a pep talk saying, unlike your opponent, Donald Trump, you can open doors. And they had a little fun teaching Americans how to pronounce her name. Have a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAYA RUDOLPH, ACTOR: Now Kamala, take my palm-ala. The American people want to stop the chaos.
HARRIS: And end the drama-la.
RUDOLPH: With a cool new stepmom-ala. Get back in our pajama-las and watch a rom-com-ala.
HARRIS: Like Legally Blonde-ala.
RUDOLPH: And start decorating for Christmas, fa-la-la-la-la. Because what do we always say?
RUDOLPH & HARRIS (in unison): Keep calmala and carry on-a-la.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: Harris told reporters her experience at Saturday Night Live was fun, a moment of levity ahead of what would be a very tight race with enormous stakes.
Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a new threat against Israel and the United States. Just ahead, we'll look at what he's saying about Iran's response to Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets.
And later, researchers say the interest in campaign merchandise can offer insights into potential presidential winners. I'll speak with an expert to discuss his findings. That's coming up. Please stay with us.
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BRUNHUBER: UNICEF says more than 50 children were killed in Jabalia over in northern Gaza over the course of 48 hours. The agency also says a staff member working to vaccinate children for polio came under fire as she was driving her car. The U.N. resumed its polio vaccination campaign on Saturday after suspending it because of security concerns.
In Tel Aviv, protesters on Saturday made new demands that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reach a deal to release the hostages held in Gaza. They're also calling for elections to replace the Netanyahu government.
And Iran's supreme leader is vowing a, quote, "teeth-breaking" response to Israel and the United States after Israel's strike on Iran last month. He says Iran has a right to respond to the Israeli strikes.
CNN's Melissa Bell joins us now live from Paris with the latest on the U.S. situation in the Middle East.
So, Melissa, to start, what can you tell us about the latest strikes in Gaza and Lebanon?
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So, UNICEF saying that 50 children have been killed over the course of 48 hours. This is the result of Israeli strikes in northern Gaza. Remember, Kim, that this is a ground offensive that Israel launched on October 6th, says Israel, as it was seeing Hamas regroup in these particular parts of northern Gaza that have been targeted.
And what we've seen over the course of the last few days have been extensive civilian casualties as a result of those strikes. There is also, we understand from humanitarian organizations, a dire issue in those areas. Seventy thousand people have fled to Gaza City, but 100,000 still there.
Not only the effects of the strikes, of course, Kim, but the fact that the ground offensive is meant to any basic services being stopped. So, no medical supplies, no functioning fire services rescue. And that situation has been described by the U.N. as the darkest chapter in the Gaza war so far.
Now, you also mentioned what we've seen over the course of the weekend, which is an Israeli operation in northern Lebanon to capture a Hezbollah commander now in Israeli detention and under investigation, Kim.
BRUNHUBER: All right. And then, Melissa, in the meantime, looking at Iran's promise of retaliation against Israel, perhaps surprisingly bellicose words coming from its leader.
BELL: Well, the all eyes have been very much on how Iran chooses to respond to these Israeli strikes that are understood to have done fairly extensive damage to their air defenses, for instance. That the response might come before the American election had been one suggestion Israel says it is in a state of readiness. It is looking closely at when and if sources say Iran chooses to retaliate.
But certainly these latest words from the Ayatollah Khamenei threatening both the United States and Israel with a teeth crushing response, certainly a ratcheting up of the rhetoric there with all eyes very much on how limited or extensive Iran's response is.
Kim.
BRUNHUBER: All right. Appreciate that, Melissa Bell in Paris. Thanks so much.
Well, now to Britain, where in a historic moment, Kemi Badenoch has been elected the new leader of the conservatives, becoming the first black woman to lead a major British political party.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Another glass ceiling shattered.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: Badenoch defeated rival Robert Jenrick on Saturday after a month's long leadership contest. She's railed against identity politics, transgender rights and state spending and is expected to take the party further to the right.
Speaking after her victory, she vowed to lead the party through a period of renewal issues. Here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEMI BADENOCH, BRITISH CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER: Our party is critical to the success of our country. But to be heard, we have to be honest, honest about the fact that we made mistakes, honest about the fact that we let standards slip. The time has come to tell the truth.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: And she replaces former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who led the conservatives to historic losses in July.
Polls are now open in Moldova. The country is holding the second round of a presidential election that could bring it closer to Europe or towards Moscow.
Pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu is seeking a second term against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian candidate. Sandu won 42% in the first round of elections, just short of the majority. The first round was held the same day as a referendum on EU membership, which just barely passed.
[05:25:11]
And Moldova's government says the votes were tarnished by a vast Kremlin-backed vote-buying scheme. Sandu calls it an unprecedented assault on the country's democracy.
Well, it's not even election day yet here in the U.S., but that's not stopping speculation about the direction of a possible Trump administration. Ahead, Trump's affinity for conspiracy spreaders. Stay with us.
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BRUNHUBER: Welcome back to all of you watching us here in the United States, Canada, and around the world. I'm Kim Brunhuber. This is CNN Newsroom.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are taking their closing arguments, the country's biggest battleground states, with only two days left in the race for the White House.
Later today, Trump is headed to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris will be in Michigan as she works to defend the Democrats' blue wall.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama hit the campaign trail for Harris again on Saturday. Speaking in Pennsylvania, she described Trump as a con man who poses a real danger to the country.
The former president's running mate, J.D. Vance, went to Arizona and told a crowd there that Republicans have a big advantage in the swing state, while Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for Vice President, knocked on doors and held an event in battleground Nevada in his final visit before election day.
So, with the race in its final stretch, there's speculation about what the future Harris or Trump administrations would look like. When it comes to Trump, one thing is clear, some conspiracy theorists would play key roles in shaping federal policies. Brian Todd explains.
[05:30:04]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If he's elected again, Donald Trump is poised to elevate two well-known conspiracy theorists to positions of power in his second administration.
TRUMP: He's going to have a big role in health care.
TODD: Trump has promised to give Robert Kennedy Jr., one of Americas most prominent anti-vaxxers, a top role in shaping White House health policy.
TRUMP: I'm going to let him go wild on health I'm going to let him go wild on the food. I'm going to let him go wild on medicine.
TODD: The man Trump's going to let go wild has repeatedly baselessly called the COVID-19 vaccines unsafe and espoused outlandish, false conspiracy theories about the COVID virus. ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people, the people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.
TODD: Vice President Kamala Harris saying this today about Trump's plans for Kennedy.
HARRIS: The exact last person in America who should be setting health care policy for America's families and children.
LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: There could be widespread disinformation to the public about what they should or shouldn't be doing in terms of their public health.
TODD: The co-chair of Trump's transition team told CNN's Kaitlan Collins this about what Kennedy might try to do with the COVID vaccines that are in place now which have been proven to be mostly safe.
HOWARD LUTNICK, CO-CHAIR, TRUMP-VANCE TRANSITION TEAM: He says, if you give me the data, all I want is the data and I'll take on the data and show that it's not safe and that if you pull the product liability, the companies will yank these vaccines right off, off of the market.
TODD: No less controversial is Trump's plan to give billionaire Elon Musk a huge portfolio to be in charge of downsizing the federal government.
TRUMP: I love Elon, by the way.
TODD: Musk, the man who's crippled X's value since buying the platform formerly known as Twitter for $44 billion two years ago. The man who's repeatedly pushed false claims about election fraud, but it's Musk's ownership of SpaceX that could cause the biggest problems in a Trump administration.
HANS NICHOLS, POLITICAL REPORTER, AXIOS: There are clear conflicts of interest, right? He receives massive amounts of federal contracts from the federal government.
TODD: Trump's transition co-chair says Musk would be, quote, "adjacent" to the government, not in it.
As for Kamala Harris, she said shell appoint a Republican to her cabinet.
HARRIS: I want different views. I -- I enjoy and benefit from diverse views, from different perspectives.
TODD: On other appointments, it's been reported that Harris' team is considering keeping some Biden administration officials in place, people who've already been confirmed by the Senate and wouldn't need to be confirmed again by a possible Republican-controlled Senate.
TODD (on camera): But overall, Kamala Harris and her team have been keeping those cards close to their vest and have been resistant to having public conversations on who she would tap for her first term. One senior Democrat who's familiar with those discussions tells CNN that Harris' position has been that she's got to win this thing first.
Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: Close to 10,000 women from across the U.S. converged on Washington Saturday and marched to the White House in support of legal abortion. Demonstrators held signs and chanted, we're not going back, as they made their feelings known ahead of Tuesday's vote.
Reproductive rights have been a key issue in the campaign with this first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned the nearly 50-year federal right to abortion.
So, as we know, polling is tight, including in key battleground states. But as 2016 taught us, polling isn't perfect. CNN Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten breaks down the numbers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: The polls aren't perfect. They are a tool. They get you in the neighborhood. But when the race is this close, when all the key battleground states are within three percentage points, that's within the average error band. The average error band for state polling average since 1972 is, get this, 3.4 points, 3.4 points. And then if you talk about a margin of error, right, like a 95% confidence interval, we're talking about more like plus or minus nine points.
All of the key battleground states are within this error band, and they're actually within the average error band as well. So let's kind of talk about what happens if you have an average error and apply it to the electoral map, right?
Well, if we have an average error and Donald Trump benefits from the average error, guess what? He gets way past 270 electoral votes. He gets to 312. Why? He carries all the Great Lake battleground states. He carries the southeast battleground states in North Carolina and Georgia, and he carries Nevada and Arizona out west.
But of course, there's no guarantee that the polls being off would necessarily benefit Donald Trump, even though they did both in 2016 and 2020, because they could, in fact, the polling miss could benefit Kamala Harris like it did the Democrats back in 2022.
If there was, in fact, a polling miss that benefited Kamala Harris, an average polling miss, she'd get north of 300 electoral votes. Look at that. She'd get to 319. Why? She'd carry the Great Lake battleground states, right? She'd carry Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. She'd carry the southeast battleground states, Georgia, North Carolina, and she'd carry the southwest battleground states of Nevada and Arizona.
[05:35:12] So the bottom line is this, the polls at this point, point to a race that's way too close to call, but an average miss in either direction could turn this into an electoral college blow. We just don't know at this point.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BRUNHUBER: So as pollsters and pundits try to predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election, researchers at New York University have been looking at something else, online searches for campaign- related merchandise. Well, they found that since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July, she has led Trump in yard sign-related searches by 76%. They also studied searches for candidate-related attire, and those findings offered a much different result.
All right, joining me now is Anasse Bari, senior researcher for the study, and he is also a Professor of Computer Science at New York University.
Thanks so much for being on with us about this very unusual idea. Why did you decide on those specific indicators for political support?
ANASSE BARI, PROFESSOR, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY: Thank you, Kim, for having me. So I mean, if someone is searching online for their candidate's yard signs, shirt, hat, flag, or any other merchandise of the candidates they support, there is a good chance that they are supportive of that candidate, and there's a strong likelihood that they will vote for them. And similarly, if searching for terms that arise during and immediately after a presidential debate, it looks like someone would be interested enough to be watching the debates.
For instance, we saw that people would not be searching for Springfield or Haiti if they weren't watching the debate. So with large number of netizens expressing support through microblogs, social media posts, memes, and videos, it became an important data point for us to measure and come up with a new, innovative way to measure public opinion about presidential candidates.
So we created this innovative data-driven way to look at candidates' support in ways that go beyond typical measurements such as polls or campaign contributions.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, you say it's a data-driven way. How exactly did you go about it?
BARI: So basically, we've been doing -- tracking a lot of searches. So we've been coming up with a lot of key phrases and keywords that people would use to basically search for merchandise around yard signs, around hats, around shirts. And we came up with indices that would track basically those searches, and then we were trying to compare one candidate versus another.
Another approach that we did was also to measure sentiment using sentiment analysis algorithms, which is a branch of AI where we can see the tone of the -- of people on how they express themselves towards one candidate or another. And we just thought that this is going to be a new way of looking at things that could supplement what have been done within the traditional way of trying to get signals ahead of the -- of the elections.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, I want to get to the implications of this in a second, but first the results. So in terms of the merchandise, hats and shirts, what did you find there?
BARI: So for the hats and the shirts, we -- I mean, we found different things for both candidates. It looks like the Trump hat is very popular in a lot of swing states, whereas for the yard signs, as you mentioned at the beginning, Vice President Harris has been leading. We also saw a lot of differences when it comes to the hats when we talk about the Vice President and President's hat.
So I think for the Harris and Walz hats were basically outpaced the Trump-Vance hats in a lot of the swing states.
BRUNHUBER: Interesting. Now, of course, if you were a political consultant and you were to rely on these findings to inform your campaign, you'd probably be fired. But what can you read into these results at this point, do you think?
BARI: Yes, it's very hard to make predictions. I mean, the algorithmic process that we typically use for other domains to make predictions is very hard, especially when the future insists on being so unpredictable. I think that the candidates who will win this election and become president of the United States will be the one who secures the majority of votes, as has been the case throughout the history of the U.S. presidential elections.
But the research work that we did, although it doesn't claim the predictive of voting choice, it supplements polling and offering a bigger picture of political sentiments. And this is something that we shouldn't be ignoring as we go into the elections on -- on -- on how people are expressing themselves into searches or into microblogs like Reddit and others.
[05:40:11]
Also, we found that our method can also measure enthusiasm about a specific candidate. At some point, we saw that Trump yards were outpacing President Biden's yard searches. But then when Vice President Kamala Harris joined the race, it was a seismic shift into what we saw as probably it reflects how people are enthusiastic about her joining the race.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, it's such an interesting, you know, sociological and political experiment. But in the future, using AI, we may be able to -- to kind of supplement the usual types of polling, which is we -- we just listened to our report there, which has proven quite fallible in the past, supplementing those with -- with more sophisticated types of searches like this. I mean, what's the potential here in the in the future?
BARI: I see a lot of -- I see a lot of potential. I think -- I think this is -- this is -- this is one of the most important data points that we could use to connect with other data points with regards to the candidates. We can measure sentiments. We can measure enthusiasm. We can also measure how people feel about specific topics that are around basically the elections. For instance, in the first debate, we found that abortion and immigration were the top topics that people were searching for during the debate.
They were searching for abortion laws by state. And that continues also after the debates. And we saw a shift where before the debates, crime was the most searched and the most discussed topics in microblogs. And then after the first -- the first presidential debate, abortion became the second -- the most searched topic.
So I see a lot of potential here as -- as a supplement to -- to the polls. I think the big data from social media, which could be the engine to a lot of A.I. that we could do around this space, and hopefully we can get some signals that could be predictive at some point.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, it's fascinating. I guess we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg right now.
Anasse Bari, thank you so much for being here with us. Really appreciate it.
All right.
BARI: Thank you.
BRUNHUBER: Well, it's Europe's worst flood related disaster, nearly 60 years. Just ahead, we'll go to Valencia, Spain and get the latest on the search and rescue efforts there. Stay with us.
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[05:45:37]
BRUNHUBER: In Southeastern Spain, at least 211 people are now confirmed dead from the catastrophic flash floods that hit the region earlier in the week. Rescue crews could be seen in water up to their necks, searching for some of the hundreds still missing.
On Saturday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced the country's largest ever deployment during peacetime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PEDRO SANCHEZ, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER (through translator): The situation we are living in is tragic. It is dramatic. We are almost certainly talking about the most serious flooding our continent has seen so far this century. And I am aware that the response that is being given is not enough. I know that. I know that there are severe problems and shortages, that there are still collapsed services, municipalities buried by mud, desperate people searching for their relatives, people who cannot access their homes, homes destroyed and buried by mud. I know we have to do better. (END VIDEO CLIP)
BRUNHUBER: I want to go now live to Atika Shubert, who is in Valencia, Spain. And just where you are, Atika, a grim reminder of the toll that the flood has taken. Explain to us exactly where you are.
ATIKA SHUBERT, JOURNALIST: Yeah, I'm actually in front of the courthouse, and their basement has been turned into a makeshift morgue, an autopsy center. In fact, they first opened this up in the first day of the floods, realizing they were bringing in a lot of dead. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough. And they've actually opened up another at the convention center just outside of town.
So, a very grim reminder not only of the death toll so far, but there are still many people missing. There have been some amazing rescues in the last few days. In fact, just yesterday, a woman was rescued from her car after being in it for three days. But that is a very rare occurrence. Hope is really diminishing for those who are still missing.
And you heard from the Prime Minister there, you know, an acknowledgement of the anger and frustration that help has not been coming fast enough to some of these areas.
In fact, Prime Minister Sanchez is currently visiting Paiporta. This is a suburb just outside of Valencia with Spain's king. They're looking at some of the most devastated areas and looking at why it's taking so long for some of the emergency services to get out there.
Some of it is just logistics. The flood, you know, dumped vehicles, piled them one on top of each other on roads and highways. I've seen it myself. Other problems are coordination. The local government did not ask for federal help soon enough.
So, it wasn't until yesterday that we saw the military really mobilizing to help people. That's really frustrated a lot of people, Kim.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, there's a lot of frustration, certainly, but a lot of compassion as well from so many people who've been mobilizing to help. And I know that's something that you've been seeing yourself. Take us through that.
SHUBERT: Yeah, thousands of people have turned out. And what's remarkable here is that they went on foot, walking four hours to get to those affected areas. And we actually joined them for a lot of those walks into some of the hardest areas to get to.
Roads were completely destroyed, you know, vehicles obstructing their path. But they did whatever they could to help out. And so, you're seeing this extraordinary sense of community.
Unfortunately, it also did hinder some of the emergency services trying to get through. So, now the government is trying to coordinate a lot of that volunteer help. However, today, that weather system that impacted the area and is still in effect here isn't going away. And actually, there is more rain set to come. There's a lot of wind. I can feel it now.
And this is actually the weather condition that we felt on Tuesday. This is what triggered some of those floods. So, some of those volunteers are being called back and saying it's not safe to be out in the floodplain area at this point.
We'll just have to wait and see how it goes today, Kim.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah, the last thing people wanted to hear is more rain in that area. Atika Shubert in Valencia, Spain. Thank you so much.
All right, we'll have more here on CNN Newsroom. We'll be right back with more. Stay with us.
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[05:53:37]
BRUNHUBER: In sports, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid is being investigated by the NBA after getting into a physical confrontation with a local newspaper reporter.
CNN Sports Anchor Coy Wire joins me now with the latest. Not a man I would want to get into a confrontation with. What more can you tell us?
COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yeah, it's an unfortunate and ugly reality, right, Kim, that many athletes and public figures face their personal lives becoming part of public discourse. According to the "Associated Press," Embiid confronted and shoved Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes in the locker room about an article Hayes published on October 23rd in which he criticized the former MVP for missing games due to injury, for his conditioning.
The article says, in part, that Embiid, quote, "Often says he wants to be great to leave a legacy for the boy named after his little brother, who tragically died in an automobile accident." Then goes on to say, "Well, in order to be great at your job, you first have to show up for work."
Per the "AP," Embiid told the reporter, the next time you bring up my dead brother and my son again, you're going to see what I'm going to do to you, and I'm going to have to live with the consequences. The league says it is aware of the reports and they are looking into them.
All right, another incident yesterday involving a high-profile athlete, Kim, confronting someone about speaking about their family, future Hall of Famer in the NFL, Jason Kelce, after making a TV appearance for ESPN at a college football game, confronted a man filming him using a homophobic slur about his brother, Chiefs star Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift's boyfriend. You can see here, Kelce responding by taking the phone and spiking it to the ground.
[05:55:12]
Another video then appears to pick up audio of Kelce using that same slur in response while confronting the ma. CNN has reached out to Kelce's agent for comment, but have not heard back.
All right, let's talk about some actual games and highlights now, Kim. We're going to start with an absolute shocker on the pitch. Bournemouth stunning Manchester City, beating the reigning Premier League champs for the first time ever.
Antoine Semenyo putting the cherries on top just 10 minutes in. Then just after the hour mark, watch Evanilson here doubling the lead with the slightest of touches, just enough to beat the keeper. 2-1 is the final, handing City their second loss in four days, ending their EPL unbeaten streak at 32 games.
Meanwhile, MLS Cup playoffs. Atlanta United has Lionel Messi and Inter Miami against the Ropes. A sensational goal by Xande Silva. Upper 90 in the final seconds. 95th minute, Kim. A 2-1 win, forcing a winner take all game three next Saturday in South Florida.
Look at the team owner there, Arthur Blake and his son Josh. This has the potential this next game three of sending the best player in the world and best team all season packing in the first round of the playoffs.
Kim, lots of action to come today. Of course, NFL Sunday, got to get that fantasy football roster set so I can have keep my hopes of maybe trying to finish decently at the end of the season.
BRUNHUBER: Yeah. Absolutely. And I was there for that Atlanta United game. It made me feel a little bit better for the fact that my other team, Arsenal, lost. And I'm glad you didn't show those highlights because that just would have singled here.
WIRE: Yes, it would have been too soon. Good to see you, Kim.
BRUNHUBER: Really appreciate it. Yeah. Thanks so much, Coy.
All right, that wraps this hour of CNN Newsroom. I'm Kim Brunhuber.
For viewers in North America, "CNN This Morning" is next. For the rest of the world, it's "Connecting Africa."
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