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One Day Left: Harris, Trump Hit Battlegrounds In Final Frenzy; Crowds Hurl Mud at Spanish Royals During Controversial Visit; Latest Iowa Poll Shows Trump No Longer Leading In Iowa; Legendary Music Producer Quincy Jones Dies At 91. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired November 04, 2024 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:31]

LYNDA KINKADE, CNN HOST: It is 8:00 p.m. in London, 9:00 p.m. in Paris and 3:00 p.m. here in Atlanta. I'm Lynda Kinkade. Thanks so much for joining us today on CNN NEWSROOM.

Well, let's get straight to the top stories. We have finally reached the last full day of campaigning before Election Day in America. And already, 75 million Americans have cast their ballot in what has been a tumultuous election cycle. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have stops in Pennsylvania today, and no matter the outcome, history is on the ballot for both candidates.

If Trump wins, it would be one of the most staggering political comebacks nearly four years after his infamous January 6th speech, and in the same year that he was convicted of a crime and survived two attempts on his life.

And if Harris wins, she would shatter the -- she would shatter the ceiling after nearly 250 years of men securing the role of commander in chief. She would become the first woman U.S. president.

Here's what she said in the battleground state of Pennsylvania a short time ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But over these next 24 hours, let's -- let's enjoy this moment to knock on a neighbors door and in their face, even if we've not met them, know that we have a lot that we care about in common and that we are optimistic about the future of our country, that we love our country, and that that's what this fight is about and about the promise of America and the promise of America being represented by everybody who's here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: One of Trump's biggest supporters is billionaire ex-owner Elon Musk. He has been attracting significant legal scrutiny. Earlier, Musk's lawyers argued in court that one -- that his $1 million giveaway to voters is not an illegal lottery. And while this controversy unfolds, Trump is betting on Musk's influence. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have the best computer guy there is, right? We have Elon. And you know where Elon is right now? Elon is right now, he's in Pennsylvania campaigning because he thinks -- he thinks it's the single most important thing he's ever worked on, Elon Musk. And we want to thank him. He's an amazing guy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: Well, Eva McKend is in Pennsylvania following the Harris campaign and Steve Contorno is also in that crucial swing state, tracking the Trump campaign.

Happy election eve to both of you.

Good to have you with us.

I want to start with you first, Eva. So this is the last day before the election. Harris hammering home her message of unity. Has there been any reaction from her camp as to this latest poll from Iowa?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, they say that they are do not like to engage with these polls. Actually, the -- her running mate, Governor Walz says that its time to get off of the roller coaster. So, no, they are not responding to this. Instead, they are really focused on their closing message, and it is grounded in unity.

You know, I'm standing in front of a sign that says a president for all. The vice president not even mentioning the former president by name, because in these closing hours, their belief is that the former president's record, his rhetoric has now been well-litigated. And at this time she has to do all that she can to excite the base of the party. And then consolidate various coalitions across the country.

And she's ending the campaign here in vote rich Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes. They are confident in the ground game that they have employed here, and the diversity of the state. That's why you see her just about everywhere.

She started the day in Scranton. She's headed here soon to Allentown, Pennsylvania, which has more than 30,000 Puerto Rican voters and then after that, she goes on to Reading and then ends the day in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

So they're going all in on Pennsylvania, and they're hoping that it pays off in a big way -- Lynda.

KINKADE: All right. I want to go to Steve.

Steve, good to have you with us. So Trump says his voice is barely holding up after numerous rallies, but he continues to claim without evidence that the election is being stolen.

Is there any indication within his camp that that they feel that he's losing?

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: Well, Lynda, look, so the Trump campaign is not -- nothing if they are not overconfident. In fact, one of the concerns I've heard from Republicans throughout this process is that the Trump's campaign has been a little bit too presumptive about this election.

[15:05:06]

But that did change somewhat over the weekend with that Iowa poll you mentioned, which sent shockwaves through the Republican Party and did elicit a reaction from Trump and the Trump campaign. Trump called this poll corrupt, saying that it was it should never have been dropped so close to an election. I should point out, though that his campaign has repeatedly touted this poll in the past when it showed them winning Iowa in 2016 and 2020, as well as all throughout the Republican caucus process, where Iowa's poll showed him defeating the field there. And they were very, very proud to push those results out there.

But they are saying that all these polls at this point should be ignored, and we should instead be looking at the voter turnout data. When they see that turnout, they see rural turnout is up, urban turnout is lower than it was four years ago. They don't believe that the gender gap that's in polls and that was showed in that Iowa poll, is reflective of what the turnout looks like so far and they have been encouraged that the early voter turnout among Republicans is much higher than it was four years ago.

So that is where they are looking at these numbers. And having confidence going into tomorrow, even as there are all these indicators that suggest that maybe this election is much tighter and tilting toward Harris in these final days.

KINKADE: And, Even, Harris, of course, has some major star power helping her on her fate -- on this final stretch, including Oprah. Julia Roberts, Will Ferrell. What's the plan tonight?

MCKEND: Yeah, Fat Joe is going to be here in Allentown not before long.

Listen, they're trying to leverage these celebrities to get people engaged here. Often, Republicans will needle Democrats saying there is an overreliance on celebrity. But listen, if Republicans had this A- list roster, they would be leaning on them too, because the bottom line is there are so many people that are not engaged in politics. But then if they're following somebody like Oprah, for instance, on Instagram, and her massive social media following or many of these other celebrities, maybe they will get engaged. And so it's a part of the strategy in these, these final hours to get people excited and tuned in to this election -- Lynda.

KINKADE: All right. Not long to go now. Eva McKend, Steve Contorno, good to have you both with us. Thanks so much.

Well, what is behind the dueling strategies this election eve?

Our political director, David Chalian, gave us this insight. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Here it is.

The path to 270, the red states are in Trump's column. The blue states are in Harris's column for the purpose of this exercise. And we've got seven remaining yellow toss up battleground states.

And as you know, those battleground states are razor thin. Look at these are a poll of polls in the battleground states. No clear leader in any of them, in any of these battleground states. So this is razor thin.

So what is the path to victory for each candidate? Well, the Harris campaign will say that their best, most direct path to 270 electoral votes is through the blue wall. If she were to win Pennsylvania Michigan, and Wisconsin, she'd be at 270 electoral votes, and the next president.

But what if Donald Trump repeats his 2016 victory in Pennsylvania, then Harris drops down to 251 and she has to go hunting in the Sunbelt to find some more votes. Certainly, if she were able to flip North Carolina from red to blue this time, that would get her knocking on the door to 270. And then maybe Nevada behaves like it has for Democrats in recent cycles, and that would put Harris over the top in that scenario.

What about Donald Trump's path?

Well, let's reset the map. Seven yellow battleground states and Donald Trump's most direct path is to hang on to North Carolina. That is the state he won by the narrowest margin four years ago. In fact, its the only state he one of the seven battleground states.

And let's say he flips Georgia back. You'll recall he famously lost it by just fewer than 12,000 votes. So let's say that ends up back in his column and let's say he does get that Pennsylvania victory repeated from 2016. That's it. He'll be at 270 electoral votes. He doesn't need any of the rest of the battleground states.

But what if Harris does pull it out in Pennsylvania? Then where does Donald Trump go for the next 19 electoral votes. Well, even if he were to win Nevada and Arizona out west, that still would not get him to 270. He would need at least one of the other remaining so-called blue wall states, such as Michigan. And that would do the trick. And get him over the top at 283.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: Our thanks to David Chalian.

Well, everything is coming down to the wire, and there's a shocking new poll from Iowa. Take a look at this, Harris surges ahead by three percentage points.

[15:10:04]

Now, the poll comes from that was published in "The Des Moines Register" and Mediacom, which is known for its accuracy in that state. If right, the poll turns a state that was supposed to be safely in Trump's corner into a toss up. Sources tell CNN the poll was a gut punch to people inside the Trump campaign, and that Trump himself is fuming over it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I got a poll. I'm ten points up in Iowa. One of my enemies just puts out a poll I'm three down.

Why do they announce a poll that's highly skewed toward Democrats and liberals? Why do they do that? When you read it, they interviewed far more Democrats than they did Republicans. Why do they do that? Why do they do that?

ANN SELZER, POLLSTER: We extract from a larger group the people who meet our definition of likely voters, and that is people who've already voted and people who say they will definitely vote. So when former President Trump says we interviewed more Democrats, well, that's what came out of our data. We did nothing to make that happen.

I'm a big believer of keeping my fingers off -- my dirty fingers off the data. So we did it the way we did it. When he won in our final poll twice in two election cycles, very same method.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: So how much should read into that Iowa poll or any other poll for that matter? Well, nearly all the polls show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a virtual tie, and the polls in 2016 and 2020 were off for former President Trump and President Joe Biden.

So does this mean pollsters are missing key factors?

Well, joining me now is CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton.

And also with us is former White House director of message planning and Democratic strategist, Meghan Hays.

Good to have you both with us.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Thanks for having us.

KINKADE: So, Meghan, I'll start with you looking at that Iowa poll. Ann Selzer is considered the single most reliable pollster in that state. She did accurately predict Trump's 2016 and 2020 win in that state. But she has Harris leading at this time.

If that Iowa poll is true, does that suggest we could see a swing to Harris and the Democrats? MEGHAN HAYS, FORMER WHITE HOUSE DIRECTOR OF MESSAGE PLANNING: Well, first, I don't think you can live and die by the polls as I've said many times, but I don't think that that the vice president is actually going to win Iowa. What I do think is interesting in this poll is the lead she's taking among women, especially white women, and 65 and older women, and then also with rural voters.

So I do think that some of the key demographics here could -- could be telling for the other states like Wisconsin or Michigan in the Midwest. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. But I don't think that anyone thinks she's actually going to win Iowa. But it is a positive piece of momentum for her heading into the final -- the final stretch here.

KINKADE: Quick question, Shermichael, do you think Kamala Harris could win Iowa based on that poll?

SINGLETON: No, I mean, I echo Meghan's points, but I'm not surprised by the results, particularly showcasing the vice president's strength and viability among women.

Now, what is a bit surprising to me are women 65 and older, which Meghan stated, and I say that because in 2016, the former president dominated with that group despite gender. So men and women, 65 and older, he performed very well. In 2020, he performed fairly well as well, the most recent polls outside of that poll in Iowa, the recent Siena poll, "New York Times"/Siena poll suggested that he's behind maybe two points from his performance in 2020.

Now, that actually does make me nervous. So the competitiveness with women doesn't surprise me the potential decrease in strength or competitiveness with older voters does surprise me. And that should be a point of concern for the Trump campaign.

KINKADE: Yeah, I don't think anyone's really surprised. Oh, you dive in.

HAYS: Sorry, I was just going to follow up on what Shermichael said. I think the one the differential here from '16 to '20 to now is this is the first presidential campaign post the Dobbs decision. So these are women who, you know necessarily did not have these, you know, they knew what a pre-roe life was like. And so I think that might be impacting some of these 65 and older women. I'm not -- I'm not suggesting all men and women. I'm just suggesting women.

KINKADE: Yeah. The fall of Roe v. Wade since the last election is certainly going to be significant this election and the way people are voting.

But there's also, to some extent, no surprise that Trump is not doing as well as women given his messaging that even he has conceded, his team says is inappropriate. He said, you know, on the record that women should be published punished if they need abortion medication. He's said that he'll protect women whether they like it or not. He's recently saying that now he might be too soft on women.

I just want to play one ad from Oscar-winning actress Julia Roberts about the vote from women. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JULIA ROBERTS, OSCAR-WINNING ACTRESS: You can vote any way you want, and no one will ever know.

[15:15:01]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Did you make the right choice?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Sure did, honey.

ROBERTS: Remember, what happens in the booth stays in the booth.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: I mean, Shermichael, do you think there is a silent women vote that is missing in the polls?

SINGLETON: Maybe. But, you know, I got to be honest with you, I don't particularly care for that ad. I'm all for people voting for whomever they want. But the idea that you're encouraging spouses and this would also apply for men.

I'm saying this as a man, you should have that conversation as someone who's married with your wife and maybe the wife may say, well, honey, I'm, you know, with all due respect, you vote for Trump. I'm going to vote for Harris, I certainly respect that.

But the idea that spouses are keeping stuff from each other, I don't like that. I can only speak for my own marriage. People do what they will with their own relationships but I don't think that's healthy. With that said, no, I don't think there's a surprising vote or group of women that support Harris. Again, I've been saying this for two years now.

Overturning Roe v. Wade is like the dog catching up to the car. Well, what happens next from the Republicans perspective, you fought 40, 50 years to overturn this darn thing. You finally gotten it, and now were realizing the political ramifications.

We have two years worth of electoral data that shows us we are just not strong on this issue. Several months ago, I did a focus group with rural evangelical voters in South Georgia, and I talked and focused on this issue, and I asked the voters there if Donald Trump were to take a different posture on this issue he always says, well, it's up to the states.

I said, what if he took it a step further, and said, it's up to the states, but not in terms of the legislature making the decision but ballot initiatives -- meaning the voters have the right to vote on the issue? Would you agree with that, even if it meant your state voted to protect the right to an abortion or reproductive rights? They all said yes, and one gentleman stood out to me. He said, sure, Michael what works in Atlanta isn't necessarily what's going to work in South Georgia. Their values are different from our values and I'm okay with that.

And so what that revealed to me at least qualitatively, is that there are a lot of Republicans out there who may say, hey, this isn't my thing. But if there are a lot of women who want access to it, I'm okay with that, because that doesn't impact necessarily my values.

So I think the way the president, former president has been messaging on this has frankly been awful unnecessarily.

KINKADE: Yeah. I mean, I think the messaging is completely off, especially when it comes to reproductive health care, because it isn't just about a woman's right to an abortion its about women's rights to reproductive health care. We've got women who just last week, you know, were reportedly, you know, they died in Texas because they didn't have access to abortion medication to help with a miscarriage, that they were going through.

And so you've got women dying, having miscarriages for babies that they wanted because they couldn't get access to reproductive health care in a state where this abortion ban exists. But I want to go to Meghan on this, this other, these other ads that we are seeing play out right now.

We did see Harrison Ford make a rare presidential endorsement of Harris. Let's just play that sound.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRISON FORD, ACTOR: When dozens of former members of the Trump administration are sounding alarms saying for god's sake, don't do this again --

WILL FERRELL, ACTOR: Last time, only a few thousand votes kept Trump out of office, and this time we will hold you personally responsible, Gary.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: So, to you, Meghan, this whole push for, you know, this warning about the threat to democracy is certainly playing out amongst many voters that we're hearing from, but also now in these ads, how much of an issue will that be this election.

HAYS: I think it's a big issue. I think, you know, I worked in the White House. I understand some of the ramifications of some of these decisions that the president makes. I've worked with General Milley before, and I just think, you know, when these people speak, they are speaking about something that I think is the gravity of it is cannot be lost on our voters. And I think that that is going to play out. It's not -- I don't think it is the number one issue. I think that's the economy and immigration and abortion fall short, but fall right behind.

So -- but I do think it is up there and I do think that people don't like the rhetoric. And I don't think people like all the back and forth conversations that that the Trump campaign and Trump is doing on the stump. And so I do think its starting to add up. And I do think after -- after all this time, it will make a difference.

KINKADE: And, Shermichael, to you, how big of an issue do you think this is -- this threat to democracy that people are worried about?

SINGLETON: You know, I don't know. And I say "I don't know for this reason", the recent "Times"/Siena poll showed only 8 percent of voters in the battleground states thought this was an issue. On the overall issue of character, six percent of voters, likely voters in the battleground state, thought that that was a significant issue.

I couldn't find even if you were to go down into the crosstabs of each individual battleground state, neither of those two issues reached above 10 percent, which I think is very telling. I also think it's why the Harris campaign is shifting their closing argument.

[15:20:03]

Originally, a week ago, the vice president was talking a lot about character, a lot about democracy, and I was a bit dismayed at the fact that she would focus so much on that instead of focusing on the economy or reproductive rights and other issues. And as of late, I've been watching her on the campaign trail yesterday, today, and she's talking a lot about the economy. She's talking about immigration, to my surprise, and she's talking a lot about reproductive issues, that those things that people really care a lot about they're far more tangible. People feel them in their day to day lives.

So I'm not exactly certain that that closing message from those actors will move the needle. But I do think the pivot from the vice president absolutely can make a difference with some of those persuadable voters in the middle.

KINKADE: All right. Shermichael Singleton, Meghan Hayes, not long to go now. Good to have you both with us. Thank you.

SINGLETON: Thank you.

HAYS: Thank you.

KINKADE: Well, parts of Spain are preparing for more heavy rain and storms just days after deadly floods ripped through the Valencia region. We're going to have the latest with a live report.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KINKADE: Welcome back.

Well, in Spain's devastated Valencia region, crowds hurled mud, eggs and insults at the country's king and queen. So far, more than 200 people have died there in the recent floods. Residents are accusing the government of a slow and uncoordinated response to the disaster.

Atika Shubert has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The waters have receded, but the scene remains apocalyptic a week after the first torrential rain, some normality is returning barely.

Across Valencia, first responders and countless volunteers continue the search for the dozens still missing. Feared to be stuck beneath the mud in flooded garages or warehouses where access is difficult.

The delay in aid has angered many in Valencia. Those frustrations erupted on Sunday when King Felipe and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited the badly affected suburb of Paiporta.

[15:25:07]

Asesino, they shouted. Murderer.

King Felipe and Queen Letizia stayed to face people's anger. Prime Minister Sanchez did not, whisked away by security. Hearing the stories of the many here who lost literally everything and the criticism of those who believe the government failed them.

It can't be like this, this young man tells the king. They knew about the storm and did nothing. Through rain and mud, they listened to the horror and pleas for food and water and power.

We only ask for help, this woman says. We're not asking for anything else.

Help has been arriving often in the form of young volunteers, shocked to find they were the first to arrive.

NURIA CHISBERT, PAIPORTA RESIDENT: Yesterday, we were watching one of the village. We don't know why the police, why the military, they don't go in.

SHUBERT: So there were there were no police, no military there?

CHISBERT: No one, no one was there.

SHUBERT: Specialized equipment is finally coming through days late, power and water has been mostly restored to affected areas.

But for people in Valencia, it's too little, too slow and too late.

Atika Shubert CNN, Valencia, Spain.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: Let's bring in meteorologist Chad Myers for more on the flooding in Spain and the threat of more rain. He joins us from the weather center. Heartbreaking what people there are dealing with. What more can you tell us?

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yeah, and even the people that were trying to leave from the Barcelona airport were met with this, completely flooded roadways, runways even the taxiways, planes couldn't get in or out here and that was all because of about a ten kilometer wide swath of rain. This was not a big area of rainfall, but I'm going to show you.

And I want you to watch for the blue colors here. Those are the higher cloud tops. Those were the thunderstorms right there, right over the airport in Barcelona, 150 millimeters fell in just four hours. And that's the kind of weather were probably going to see over the next couple of days -- very, very localized rainfall which means we're not going to get widespread flooding, but because the ground is already so saturated, there's no place for any of the rainfall to soak in, it's just going to run off.

So yes, there are still some risks here from about Barcelona down to Valencia. But in smaller little pockets of some of this rain making its way onshore and when a storm like we saw on the other map gets stuck, that's when the potential for increased rainfall rates and obviously increased runoff.

Here's Valencia proper, and this is what all of this is all about. Take a look at the dry riverbed here, the dry up through here and then after the rainfall everything turns brown. This is a river that rarely runs any water at all in fact, so much so that there's grass growing in the riverbed but not anymore. This is the area that the people are talking about that they really need help.

There's a roadway. There's a back here to the river very, very far away. Now, you can hardly tell the difference because the mud was just pushed up onto those roadways. So this is what we're going to be seeing here when you get 150 millimeters of rain in just four hours, you can get places that will flood still.

KINKADE: So horrible. Chad Myers, thanks so much for that update. Appreciate it.

MYERS: You're welcome.

KINKADE: Well, in Indonesia, at least six people are dead after a volcano erupted on the island of Flores. The eruption sent thick ash spewing thousands of meters into the air, raining down on a nearby village, burning down several homes, including a convent of Catholic nuns. This is Indonesia's second volcanic eruption in as many weeks.

Well, history will soon be made at the ballot box. We're going to take a closer look at the final polls of the White House race when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:32:30]

KINKADE: Welcome back. I'm Lynda Kinkade.

I want to go back to the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is speaking in the city of Reading. Let's listen in.

TRUMP: I watched the game the other day. I said, what the hell happened? They just kicked off and nobody moved? Oh, well that's up to them.

This will be the golden age of America. Tomorrow, it's a beautiful term, isn't it? I was saying before I was just proofing and reading and studying and all that stuff, and what a beautiful term. The Golden Age, we're going to be in the golden age. Won't take long, right?

So tomorrow, you have to stand up and tell Kamala that you've had enough. You're not going to take it anymore. You're the most incompetent vice president we've ever had. And Joe Biden was the worst president in the history of our country.

Kamala, you're fired. Get the hell out of here. You're fired!

It's a hell of a nice place. Thank you.

With your vote, we're going to win Pennsylvania and were going to defeat Kamala and those -- those radical left. What they're doing to our country.

Crazy Nancy Pelosi, what's about her? She has Visa stock, big position. You know, she started off with nothing, now she's worth $200 million. How did that happen?

So she has Visa stock and she sells her stock the day before it was announced that visa is under major federal investigation, I don't know. I wonder, do you think she had any insider information? I don't think --

(CHEERING)

TRUMP: A dis -- honestly, she's a disgrace. She ought to -- they ought to throw her -- they ought to throw her the hell out of Congress.

We are going to make America great again, and it's going to be fast. We're going to do it fast. We'll fast track it.

Over the past four years --

You've just been listening there to Donald Trump in Reading, Pennsylvania, again, painting a dark picture of America, saying that Kamala should be fired. Joe Biden, he described as the worst president in history.

[15:35:03]

I want to welcome in Larry Sabato. He's the Center for Politics director at the University of Virginia, joins me now from Charlottesville, Virginia.

Good to have you with us, Larry.

So we were just looking at those images of Donald Trump flanked by women with signs saying, women for Trump. This is the demographic that he is struggling with most, right? LARRY SABATO, CENTER FOR POLITICS DIRECTOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF

VIRGINIA: Oh, absolutely. He is behind among women more than any other candidate in the polling era, running for president. Now, whether the final vote turns out that way or not, we'll have to see.

But right now, if he loses. It will be because women were determined he would not get back in the oval office. He's winning with men, but that isn't sufficient to overcome the woman's vote because women are a majority of the electorate in all 50 states.

So big mistake he made early on not just with abortion and reproductive rights, but with a whole series of issues and the things he's saying, Lynda, on the campaign trail. I'm going to protect women whether they like it or not.

KINKADE: Yeah, exactly.

And I want to ask you, Larry, about this poll. Of course, all the polls overall showing a neck and neck contest, but this latest Iowa poll shows a surge for Harris in a state that Trump won the last two elections. Just how much faith can we put in the polls?

SABATO: Well, we can put some faith in the better ones. And that Iowa poll is one, and I'm going to tell you about it in just a second. But just as I was sitting here, I saw the last poll I believe that's being released nationally, a PBS/Marist poll. And that is also a gold standard poll. And it shows Harris beating Trump 51 percent to 47 percent in the popular vote.

Now, how that translates into the Electoral College, nobody can say and I certainly cant tell from the numbers that I've seen, but that's a good sign for Harris.

Now, the Iowa poll was a shock to the entire political community. Nobody had even thought about Iowa being a competitive state. I sure no, I hadn't, and yet even though Trump carried it twice by eight percentage points, this shows him behind by three.

Do I really believe Trump is going to lose Iowa? No, I don't, but the reason this is significant is because his former base was composed of states like Iowa, a farm state in the middle of the country. Some people call it flyover country. I don't. It's great territory.

And because Trump had done so well there before, the idea that women over 65 and independent women who are not affiliated with either party were moving in large numbers to Kamala Harris, is very significant. Tells us something about Wisconsin, tells us something about Michigan, tells us something even about Kansas, which had a similar poll released recently.

KINKADE: And certainly when you listen to Donald Trump, especially over the last few days, it sounds like he's setting the stage to challenge the election results. I just want to play some sound from Donald Trump

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: They want to -- they are fighting so hard to steal this thing. Look at what's going on. Look at what's going on in your state -- every day, they're talking about extending hours and stuff. What -- who ever heard of this stuff? We should have one day voting and paper ballots.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KINKADE: So he spent almost 20 minutes on Sunday talking about how he thinks the election has been stolen. He also said that he should never have left the White House after the last election, despite losing.

Does that sort of rhetoric have the potential to scare off moderate Republicans?

SABATO: Oh, I think it already is. I think it already is. A lot of factors have played into Kamala Harris gaining some last minute momentum beginning with Trump's disastrous rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. We know about what happened there.

But in terms of some of the other developments, Donald Trump has been using dark, gloomy language. And that's not the language that a candidate who's winning uses at the end. It's kind of a telltale sign of somebody who's very worried about the way things are going.

Kamala Harris very positive campaign in the last week, she didn't even mention Donald Trump's name yesterday in Michigan while she was campaigning that's a telltale sign of a candidate who thinks she has a good chance to win.

KINKADE: We will discuss all of this and much more after the election results start coming in.

Larry Sabato, good to have you with us. Thanks for your analysis.

SABATO: Thank you, Lynda.

KINKADE: Well, what will the result of the U.S. election have on the global market from Fridays dismal jobs report to this weeks fed meeting. There is a lot of uncertainty in the business world. And unlike past years, this election cycle, many companies are opting to publicly stay out of politics.

[15:40:04]

Well, joining us now from London is the host of "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS", Richard Quest.

Good to have you with us, Richard. Great to see you as always.

So it was a bit of a mixed bag last week. I mean, overall, the economy, the health of the U.S. economy is strong. You've got record low unemployment. You've got inflation down at its lowest level since 2021, but obviously that weaker jobs report after the storms, and the strikes.

Overall, how would you describe the health of the U.S. economy and what are business leaders saying to you about it?

RICHARD QUEST, CNN HOST, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: It's a -- it's in a very strong, robust, good health. And the reason the problem for Kamala Harris is that all the numbers that are anti-Democrat in a sense, the jobless, the all those sort of numbers, they are lagging indicators. So she is going into this election with people having still experiencing the worst of the high interest rates.

Now interest rates take time to feed through when the rates go up and they take time to feed through when the rates come down. So we have not yet seen the benefits people are feeling wealthier they will in six months time. They will in nine months time. And if the fed cuts rates again, that will feed through more. But at the moment, Lynda, the feeling of people is I'm not as well off as I was four years ago. I don't think things feel right and that's because they're feeling the effects of the medicine. They haven't seen the medicine work yet.

KINKADE: Interestingly, Richard, in previous election cycles, we saw businesses, companies like Nike, like Under Armour running these ads, encouraging people to get out and vote. We're not seeing it this time. Why not?

QUEST: Yes, because, well, in the past the safe ground was always to put out public service announcements like Nike did again and again go out and vote. Your vote is important. This is about democracy it was a no brainer you could not lose by entreating people to go out and vote because you are supporting democracy.

But this time, there's no merit in it. It's a -- it's a no win game because you go out and you tell people to vote, who are you voting that way? Why are you a shy voter? Do you support him? Do you support her? Are you not going to do what you said? How are you going to do it?

So the mere and don't forget democracy. It's very self is on the ballot box according to the Democrats. So that wonderful doo, doo, doo feeling, go out and vote, just does not play this time around. People are holding their nose in many cases and voting.

KINKADE: Exactly. And it's reason why polls suggest that people are really anxious, 70 percent of voters are anxious about this election.

QUEST: Oh, come on. Look, you know, everybody's anxious. I have been in the -- I mean, look, this is my first election as a -- as a U.S. citizen.

KINKADE: Me, too.

QUEST: And I -- and I have voted and I'm sure you have voted, and wherever I have gone in the last week, last two, three 3 weeks, I have been in Riyadh. I've been in Bahrain, I've been in Dubai, I've been in Singapore, I've been in Kuala Lumpur, I've been -- wherever I've been, it's the same message.

Who's going to win? How are they going to win? What do you think? Is it going to be this? Well, we know on the night. I mean, you know as well as I do this is going to go whether we get

the result tomorrow night. We all deep in our journalistic hearts know that this ain't over until it's over. And it's not going to be over for a while until one side or the other finally agrees that the other side won.

KINKADE: Exactly. Richard Quest, we will speak after the election results start coming in. Good to have you with us. Thank you.

QUEST: Thank you.

KINKADE: Well, Election Day is, of course, tomorrow. If you haven't caught the news, Trump and Harris know what key states they need to win. Coming up, we'll explain the complex Electoral College system at play.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:47:11]

KINKADE: Welcome back.

The U.S. presidency is not decided by the national popular vote, but instead by a system called the Electoral College. There are 538 electors in total and a majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the president.

The winner in the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona will help decide who heads into the White House.

Well, for more, let's bring in CNN's senior writer for politics, Zachary Wolf.

Good to have you with us.

ZACHARY WOLF, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER: Thanks.

KINKADE: So just explain how this process works, because we know that when Trump became president against Hillary Clinton, he lost the popular vote. He won the Electoral College votes, right?

WOLF: That's right. And it's really complicated. Its kind of a vestige of the, you know, constitutional period when the country was formed in the 1700s. It's gone through some changes since then, but we still have this thing called the Electoral College. So it's not really one election that Americans will have on Tuesday.

But if you count Washington, D.C., where each state holds its own election to then allocate their Electoral College votes. They appoint electors essentially instead of while -- while voters are voting for a candidate. Really, what they're doing is choosing slates of electors. Those people will meet in December in state capitals to cast votes and then on January 6th of next year, all the votes will be sent to Washington, D.C. where they'll be counted. So we have these 538 electors that's tied to representation in

Congress, 100 senators and 435 members of Congress, plus three extra votes for Washington, D.C. I could go on. It's really complicated, but the bottom line is that American voters routinely throughout history have had one person get more votes from the people, but not end up in the White House.

KINKADE: Yeah, certainly a controversial system that will probably hear about again after this election.

Good to have you with us, Zachary Wolf. Thank you.

WOLF: Thanks.

KINKADE: Whether its Harris or Trump, the outcome of this election will have big ramifications around the world. We have correspondent standing by in a number of countries to gauge the international reaction to this incredibly tight race.

Larry Madowo is in Nairobi. Mike Valerio is in Seoul.

But first, here's Melissa Bell in Paris with perspective from Europe.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): American elections are always closely watched here in Europe, but this one really like no other. Not only because of the likely economic consequences of a second Donald Trump term, given his pledges of tariffs on imported goods and what that would mean for the global economy, but also from this continents point of view for its security.

Remember that the last time Donald Trump was president, there had been all this talk in Europe of needing to achieve greater strategic independence.

[15:50:07]

The fears are now on the continent that that hasn't gone far enough, with the war in Ukraine not helping either. A lot of questions, a lot of attention then on what happens Tuesday in the United States.

LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Larry Madowo in Nairobi, where a lot of people here in Kenya and across Africa are watching the U.S. election with interest. They know that whoever sits in the White House has an impact, even here in Africa and speaking to people, even while I've been here on the street, a lot of them tell me they like Donald Trump. They like that he speaks his mind.

They're aware of his more controversial comments, reportedly having called some African nations (EXPLETIVE DELETED) hole countries. But they like that. They know where they stand with him.

And for many religious Africans as well, they are attracted to his opposition to abortion, to LGBT rights. Many Africans also know that Kamala Harris has Jamaican heritage.

Therefore, her roots trace back to Africa. But they even know that she's been traveling in Africa as VP to Ghana, to Zambia and to Tanzania. But there's just a certain attraction to Donald Trump the myth of the successful businessman and that is just another reason why they're more attracted to the candidacy of Donald Trump, and they think he'll be a better president for Africa.

MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, for millions of South Koreans, one of the biggest consequences of the U.S. election involves North Korea. Specifically, could the next U.S. president decide to keep the roughly 30,000 U.S. troops here on the Korean peninsula, in part as a security guarantee against North Korea or could the next U.S. president decide to reduce the number of U.S. troops here on the peninsula?

Certainly, former President Trump has considered doing so in the past, and in 2018, he paused military exercises between South Korea and the United States that pause happened when Trump was negotiating with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un over Kim's nuclear program.

But under the Biden-Harris administration, those military exercises between South Korea and the United States have begun once again. In fact, the Biden-Harris White House takes credit for the formation of a new security partnership between Japan, the United States and South Korea forged in part to counter North Korean threats.

So, security looming large here as we await the results of the U.S. election.

Mike Valerio, CNN, Seoul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: Well, thanks to our correspondents.

I'm going to have much more news after a very short break. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KINKADE: Well, the music world is remembering an industry.

[15:55:04]

Musician and producer Quincy Jones has died at the age of 91 in his home in Los Angeles. His decades' long career included collaborations with some of the biggest stars, including Ray Charles and Frank Sinatra. One of his biggest collaborations came with Michael Jackson, producing "Thriller" and "Bad".

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA SIDNER, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the man behind some of music's most memorable hits, Quincy Jones was one of the most Grammy-nominated artists of all time. QUINCY JONES, MUSIC PRODUCER: When you do what you love, it's not work.

SIDNER: Born Quincy Delight Jones Jr. on the south side of Chicago in 1933, Jones found his passion for music when his family moved to Seattle in the late 40s. Jones took a job with the Lionel Hampton Band as its Trumpet player. He worked steadily with musical greats like Sarah Vaughan, Count Basie, Duke Ellington, Dinah Washington, and his friend, Ray Charles.

JONES: We didn't think about money or fame ever.

SIDNER: During the 60s, Jones began writing film scores for movies such as "The Pawn Broker," "In Cold Blood" and "In the Heat of the Night." He even crafted iconic themes for the TV shows, "Ironside" and "Sanford and Son".

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KINKADE: And Quincy Jones was 91.

Thanks so much for joining me today. I'm Linda Kinkade. Tomorrow, you can see CNN's continuous coverage as us voters cast their ballots in this unprecedented election. And "Election Night" in America begins at 4:00 p.m., New York time. That's 9:00 p.m. in London.

"QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is next.