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Hamas And Israel Agree To Ceasefire-Hostage Deal. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired January 15, 2025 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:00:40]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington. Thanks so much for joining me today on CNN NEWSROOM.

And let's get right to the news.

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire hostage deal. This Sunday, January 19th, the fighting will stop for 42 days, and 33 hostages will be returned in stages. Those hostages will include women, children, men over 50 and the wounded.

There are currently 94 hostages held in Gaza. At least 34 of them have been confirmed dead. And the news broke. Families who've waited 467 days to see their loved ones or hear news of them gathered in hostage square in Tel Aviv. In Gaza, people took to the streets as well, celebrating a break in the bombing that has just decimated the strip and killed more than 46,000 Palestinians.

Before Israel, Hamas, Qatar or the Biden administration officially announced the agreement, President-elect Trump wasted no time touting it, taking to Truth Social saying, quote, we have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly.

This is only the first phase of the three-part deal. President Biden confirmed the second phase will include negotiations for a permanent end to the war.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: In the next six weeks, Israel will negotiate the necessary arrangements to get phase two, which is a permanent end of the war. Let me say it again a permanent end of the war. There are a number of details to negotiate, to move from phase one to phase two. But the plan says if negotiations take longer than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue as long as the negotiations continue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: CNN's Matthew Chance is in London.

So, Matthew, what do we know about how the next steps will play out? MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, I mean,

look, we're at the start of what is likely, Jim, to be a very long, drawn out, possibly a bumpy process as well. I mean, we've seen these things, both of us, in the past unfold. There are often obstacles put in the way.

The timeline can stretch. It's already stretched over -- over six weeks. There will be some hostages released initially, and then the rest of them will come out in drips and drabs in exchange for Palestinian prisoner releases from Israeli jails over six weeks.

And so you can see how events on the ground could potentially derail that. So it's going to be a very difficult, traumatic time, but also a time of great hope for those Israelis. You can see there in hostage square. I know we've both been there on multiple occasions. It must be such an emotional time for the families of the hostages there in Israel, knowing that 33 people, I think it's 32, 33, or thereabouts are going to be coming out hopefully over the course of the next six weeks or so.

Also, those scenes that you saw that you played a minute ago in Gaza, the celebrations, the frantic sort of enthusiasm that we're seeing there at the prospect that hostilities, that the violence that is such a devastating impact and caused so many Palestinians to be forced from their homes inside Gaza, that is apparently coming to an end as well. That must be a huge relief for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza who have been pushed from their homes.

And so a time for hope, definitely. But it could still be a very rocky road. Before we get to those first hostage releases.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, no question. And how long does the quiet last? Of course, it's an open question.

Matthew Chance, thanks so much.

Here to discuss as well, retired IDF Colonel Miri Eisin, senior fellow now at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University.

Miri, good to talk to you as always.

COL. MIRI EISIN (RET.), SENIOR FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR COUNTER-TERRORISM ICT AT REICHMAN UNIV.: Always good to see you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: First let me ask you, what's the feeling among Israelis tonight with this news? Enormous relief, certainly for the families and for those who've supported the families throughout these 460-some- odd days.

EISIN: Jim, I'm not sure that were at the stage of relief yet. I think we're kind of breathless. We believe it.

[15:05:01]

We know its going to start. But as Matthew said before, we're Israeli. We expect everything bad to happen along the way.

But I want to give you up front how I feel as a mother. If I was the mother of a 23-year-old daughter, supposedly in the next six weeks, the women and children and women soldiers are going to be let out, but they've already set up front that if I was the mother of a 23-year-old young man who's being held by the same Hamas, kidnapped, butchered both the elderly, then I'm not even going to be let out in the next 42 days.

So it's very mixed feelings. Who gets to be on the list? Who's not on the list? Who are we suddenly going to discover is dead?

Because they've said very clearly that at this first stage, it will already include, they said, live and dead, meaning Hamas aren't saying anything, anything, even at this stage. So as an Israeli, I'm going, oh, my God, thank God, this is happening. But I'm fearful, I'm anxious, and this is such a horrible war for everybody. But let's take it a step further.

SCIUTTO: And you're right. Listen, some families are going to get sad news, not knowing that their loved ones were dead. And that's a sad fact.

The outlines of this deal have effectively been on the table for, for many months now. Of course there are differences, but the general outlines, why now? What, in your view, put this over the finish line?

EISIN: I would say a few things. It isn't just one, but it's the beginning of that to me is the Israeli actions against Hezbollah the absolute degrading of Hezbollah and the changes that happened in Syria that has directly also impact the way that we can negotiate now with Hamas. They have lost the Iranian backer. They've lost the Hezbollah front. They most definitely now are alone.

So, yes, the Houthis fire missiles here and there, and it's not happy for me, but it's not the same as it was before. So that's one big change. Hand in hand, together with the change of administration in the United States, I live in the Middle East.

And in the beginning of January, the Middle East, not Israel, but the greater Middle East were all about five years to the death of Qassem Soleimani, killed by the Trump administration in the former administration. That was a big event. And his coming back means that there's the guy who killed Qassem Soleimani, and the connection there, both to Yahya Sinwar, to the Hamas, to Hezbollah.

Again, that's a different aspect. I think that Hamas has had it harder. I also think that we, the state of Israel, have been in a horrible war, just like the Palestinians. I don't -- the Hamas are the ones who started this. But -- and so all of these together brought about this change of capability to get to a deal.

SCIUTTO: I've spoken to a number of hostage families and spoke, for instance, to Ruby Chen, whose son Itay is still being held, believed dead, sadly. He has said more than once that the Netanyahu government did not sufficiently prioritize the hostages in these negotiations. And then it took too long. It took too long for these families.

Is that a fair criticism?

EISIN: I could never argue with a hostage family. As I said at the beginning, I could have been the mother. I have a 25, 23 and 20-year- old.

I could have been the mother of one of those ones. I could have been the sister or the daughter. So my heart can go out in full. I can be full of criticism for an Israeli government.

But, Jim, I put it on the table. A negotiation with the Hamas terror group that that sat and planned this type of attack on October 7th, that trained for it. The fact that we missed it is a colossal failure, but they chose to do so.

They planned to do so. They plan to take the hostages. There's no easy way to negotiate with that. I don't believe Hamas. I don't believe that they'll deliver. I'm very worried about the upcoming 42 days, and then the next two stages.

And I say all of that because, yes, I do think that our government could have done more. I can't say that they chose not to, but I also fully blame Hamas that at any stage along the way could have given back hostages, could have opened it up, and they didn't. And I think that it's the changes of what Israel did against Hezbollah, that collapse of Hezbollah, Syria, the Iranian presence there, and the election of President Trump. That really brought about the change.

SCIUTTO: Before we go, what does Gaza look like in the future? Where does Hamas has not been completely destroyed? It's certainly been weakened and many of its fighters killed, but it's not gone. What is the path forward for Gaza, and will there be a negotiation at some point about finding a new government there?

EISIN: We can talk about the individuals. I'm going to do a zoom out. Jim, there are 2.3 million people who live in the Gaza Strip. They may support Hamas. Many of them may be part of Hamas, but that's 2.3 million people, and they're going to be there tomorrow morning and next year.

And they need to have places to live, places to work, just like they did under Hamas. And Hamas did not give them that. And I erroneously, before October 7th, 2023, thought that Hamas was becoming more responsible and wanted to build a better future for their people. I was wrong, they wanted to destroy me.

So I hope that Hamas are not the ones who are going to run it. But I don't think that Israel is the one who will be able to define what happens fully. I say it sadly, but there's 2.3 million people, and with them, with Palestinians, with other leaderships around, let's hope that the biggest thing is education, not extremism, and building for them a clear cut, real future.

SCIUTTO: We can hope. Miri Eisin, thanks so much as always for joining. EISIN: Thank you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Joining me now is Khalid Elgindy, adjunct professor at Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, also the author of "Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians from Balfour to Trump".

Khaled, thanks so much for joining.

KHALED ELGINDY, ADJUNCT PROFESSOR AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR CONTEMPORARY ARAB STUDIES: Thanks for having me.

SCIUTTO: Let me begin with you with the last question I asked Miri Eisin there. Secretary Blinken, he outlined a postwar plan for Gaza yesterday that would see a reformed Palestinian Authority leading both the West Bank and Gaza while inviting international partners to help establish and run the administration, perhaps the possibility of peacekeepers as well.

Is that a viable next step for Gaza? Do you see the ingredients in place now, at least, to begin to imagine that future?

ELGINDY: I think it is possible to imagine the ingredients for a viable future for Gaza. But it will not be easy at all. I think that the steps that you outlined are kind of the beginning steps, a credible Palestinian leadership that is unitary, that is has domestic legitimacy, and that is not simply seen as a kind of collaborationist government with the Israeli occupation. That is definitely necessary, but that requires the consent of all political factions, first and foremost, including Hamas. Hamas will have to consent to that.

I don't think they want to govern Gaza, but they're also not going to just, sort of roll over and become politically irrelevant. They are -- they are going to remain very relevant in political terms and can always act as a -- as a spoiler.

The other question will be whether Gaza is even inhabitable after the scale of destruction that we've seen over 15 months. It, you know, the 80 percent of homes have been damaged or destroyed. All of Gaza's universities, most of its hospitals, most of its agriculture, most of its infrastructure, and so that will take a massive, massive effort, if even possible, to rebuild Gaza. And then where do people live in the meantime?

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

ELGINDY: And so, I think it's -- it's clear this war went far beyond anything that could be reasonably called self-defense for Israel.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. We've been showing pictures of the scale of the destruction there, and it evokes images from World War Two. I think of Dresden, the bombing of Dresden, just utter devastation.

What is your view of how the incoming Trump administration will approach this conflict? Will Trump pressure Israel to make concessions -- to allow for the path to this two-state solution that has been talked about for decades, but has made no ones really made any progress, and arguably backwards progress? Or do you see him as being more amenable to the demands of Benjamin Netanyahu and his government and Israel, including those in his government, who want to annex the West Bank, for instance?

ELGINDY: Yeah, it's -- it's very hard to characterize the Trump approach if in fact, there is one. It's hard to point to a kind of coherent. We know we know that there are pieces of, of the Trump approach, that are mostly political and ideological. Trump is someone who values loyalty.

And so you have, for example, someone like, former Alabama Governor Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, who does not believe in a two state solution and does not believe, um, in even the existence of a Palestinian nation. And so his views are aligned with the far right extremists in Israel, in which there is no space for a Palestinian state.

[15:15:07]

On the other hand, you have Marco Rubio, who in today's confirmation hearing is still speaking the language of a two-state solution. It's hard to know. I don't think there is ideological coherence in the Trump world. I think there is kind of opportunity and power dynamics and, of course, self interests.

Trump is notoriously, you know, sort of gravitates to toward things that promote his own personal brand and persona. And so, those are very unpredictable kinds of, of characteristics. So we could see, you know, some people are surprised, for example, that, he apparently through his envoy or, designated envoy, has put pressure on Netanyahu to actually sign on to the ceasefire deal, which is something President Biden has refused to do for, for the better part of 15 months.

SCIUTTO: Yeah, listen, and the -- well, the deal came through.

ELGINDY: Yeah.

SCIUTTO: Listen, this is part of a longer conversation because the path forward for Gaza and the people of Gaza are extremely difficult.

Khaled Elgindy, thanks so much for joining us today.

ELGINDY: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: All right. Now to the White House, where President Biden earlier praised his teams month long effort on the negotiations, but also acknowledged that the Trump administration will ultimately oversee the implementation of this deal.

CNN's senior White House correspondent, MJ Lee, is there at the White House for us.

MJ, I understand you have new reporting on the Americans that will be released in this deal. MJ LEE, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Jim. You

know, it goes without saying that one of the reasons this deal was such an important priority for President Biden was because of the American hostages yet to be released from Gaza. And he said in his remarks, confirming our earlier reporting that Americans would, in fact, be a part of the initial group of hostages to be released in the first phase. The first six weeks of this ceasefire.

And now my colleague Jenny Hansler and I can report that two Americans, they are Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen, they are on the list of that initial group of hostages to be released in that first phase. Just as a reminder, of course, seven American hostages are still held in Gaza, and four of them, unfortunately, have been declared dead. But both Keith and Sagui were among the three who had been presumed to be hopefully alive.

So this is going to be, of course, a moment of real celebration and jubilation for those families who hopefully will be reunited with their loved ones after so many painful months, some 15 months of wondering whether they were ever going to see their loved ones again.

But the -- but for the other remaining families, this is going to be a mix of emotions you can imagine for them as they are still hoping that they can at some point get to a point where their families are -- family members are released as well, and you know, that gets directly to your point about, you know, the president making clear the implementation of this is going to fall to the next president and the next administration.

And that includes the negotiations, whatever they may look like, to get from this initial six-week pause in the fighting to what a lot of people are hoping will be a permanent ceasefire. One thing that the president said that was interesting was that if terms are not reached during the six weeks of the ceasefire, he did say the ceasefire would continue so long as negotiations were continuing.

But again, I think this is a president that basically knows better than anybody else what a tough job the incoming president has, and all of the officials under him, as they're going to try to figure out how to extend this ceasefire for as long as they possibly can. And in that process, get out all of the other hostages that still remain.

SCIUTTO: No question. Listen, there are a lot of pitfalls. There are a lot of potential pitfalls along the way.

MJ Lee at the White House, thank you.

We will, of course, be following the developments surrounding the ceasefire deal throughout this hour. After the break, I'm going to be joined by a representative from UNICEF to speak about what the agreement means for the daily life of civilians still living inside Gaza.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Palestinians celebrating in the streets of Gaza. Hearing the news of a ceasefire and hostage deal reached with Israel and Hamas. We are learning that desperately needed humanitarian aid has been stocked now in Egypt and Jordan to be used in a surge of aid planned as part of this deal, according to a CNN source. U.S., Egypt, Israel, Israel and Qatar officials are to meet in Cairo on Thursday to go over those humanitarian operations.

Joining me now is the global spokesperson for the aid organization UNICEF, James Elder. He himself was in Gaza in November.

James, thanks so much for joining.

JAMES ELDER, GLOBAL SPOKESPERSON, UNICEF: Jim, hi there. Good afternoon.

SCIUTTO: I want to ask how quickly things can change in Gaza. Obviously with a ceasefire, the bombing presumably will stop. That's part of the agreement. But there is still so much need. Your organization posted on X today that 120 children were reported killed in Gaza in just the past 15 days, and that includes children freezing to death. It's not suddenly going to become a place, of course, overflowing with food and viable living spaces, et cetera. So what do they need now to help change their lives?

ELDER: Yeah, you capture that perfectly there. This is -- this is good news. This is long overdue, as you say. If this could have come three months ago, and if it had come two weeks ago, there'd be 120 children alive, Jim.

But yes, but we don't get the perfect enabling environment for humanitarians to operate immediately. The fact is that, you know, you've got almost every single person on the Gaza Strip is deeply food insecure. Children haven't seen a classroom for 15 months. Most people have lost their homes.

There is a -- there's a toxic trauma that we've never seen before, Jim, and that is very strange to be that unprecedented to see every child needing some type of mental health. And child psychologist said to me in November, these children are going to go home and they're going to see the rubble of their home.

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They're going to realize their auntie isn't missing, that their auntie is dead.

So there is an enormous amount to do. And that starts with facilitating this aid. I mean, we the last three months of 2020 for, Jim, were the worst three months since the start of this horror in terms of getting aid to people. So people are absolutely at rock bottom and they have been for a long time.

So UNICEF, our priority is medicine is fuel for hospitals, is tents, is blankets, is food. But we're going to need all parties to act in absolute good faith, as many crossings as we can possibly get and understand that we are reaching people who have been without any kind of support, without anything apart from that, that fear from the skies above for a long, long time.

So it's a beacon of hope, but we're very much at the start. But yes, we can only start properly when the violence ended. And lets hope that's what this means today.

SCIUTTO: Part of the agreement, as you know, intends to include a surge in humanitarian aid. Do you have an understanding of exactly how that's meant to happen? And do you have confidence that it will happen?

ELDER: Yeah, that's a great question because it's very important to see it on paper. But we're talking on paper, it says, getting up to 600 trucks. Now that's 1,000 percent increase on where we've been recently. So we need many more crossing points.

Remember UNICEF, the United Nations has always said from the very beginning, the most efficient way, the quickest way, the cheapest way to reach those civilians under attack in Gaza is through land borders. So the land borders need to open. Now, if the decision still happens that the backbone of humanitarian aid in Gaza UNWRA, if UNWRA is shut at the end of this month, and we have another great complication.

So, as I say, like today, I speak to people on the on the ground in Gaza, Jim, over the last two hours. And there is an amazing feeling of celebration. There is also a great deal of sadness for those people who have lost so much. I talk to fathers who spent 30 years building a home, and it's been gone in a flash.

So it's a bittersweet. But yes, we must remember there is an enormous amount of aid that needs to go through to a population, who are psychologically traumatized and physically very unwell in a -- in a -- in a space where we have seen the absolute decimation, the complete and utter decimation of a -- of a health system.

So nothing will be straightforward. But it's a -- it's a critical place. It's a long overdue place for us to be starting from.

SCIUTTO: Israel and Hamas have come to this agreement over enormous obstacles, and it was certainly not guaranteed right up to the final minute that a deal would get across the finish line. But the fact is, they made an agreement.

Do you trust that both sides here, Israel and Hamas, will abide by the terms of it?

ELDER: Look, I mean, I don't have -- I don't have the insight there to speak to the goodwill or lack thereof between them. But the fact is that the people of Palestine, the Palestinians, have called out for many, many months, more than a year, Jim, for the bombs to stop. I was in Gaza in March last year, and I never forget when there was a ceasefire agreement. It came through and there was celebration.

And I remember a mother speaking to me saying, James, tonight is the first time I can promise my nine year old daughter. I can promise her she will go to bed and she will wake up alive tomorrow morning. So the leaders, the occupying power, Israel, that has an immense role

here. Hamas equally so, they simply now have to see the devastation that's been wrought completely unnecessarily. So the torment of hostages, those families who should have seen their loved ones a long, long time ago.

If anyone starts this conversation with empathy and compassion, which it should have happened 15 months ago, then yes, this will see through. And this will see to a lasting peace. But we are very, very much at the beginning.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. So many attempts at a lasting peace through the years, failed attempts.

James Elder, we appreciate the work you do in Gaza. Thanks so much for joining.

ELDER: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Coming up, an opportune day for Senator Marco Rubio's confirmation hearing for secretary of state. How he responded to news of the deal that came amid hearing, and who he says should get credit for getting it done.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

News of the ceasefire hostage deal broke just as Trump's nominee for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, was on Capitol Hill, taking questions from senators for his confirmation hearing. Notably, the Florida senator praised the work by both Trump and Biden officials, though he made clear there is still a long road to lasting peace.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE NOMINEE: In fact, I dare to say that all involved deserve credit for the ceasefire that the chairman has just announced. But Steve Witkoff has been a critical component of it, and he has been involved in it from day one. Part of that deal, as I understand it, is it has this very tenuous but important six week transitional period where it's going to require international cooperation to bring some level of stability and administration, and that could serve as assuming it works, that could serve as a foundation to build upon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: CNN's Jennifer Hansler covers the State Department joins me now.

Jennifer, interesting to have this news break in the middle of those confirmation hearings there. In your reporting and listening to the secretary of state nominee there, Rubio, describing this tenuous agreement as potentially being a springboard to something more lasting. Is that something that Trump administration officials have interest in, or are they looking to try to be the architects of a longer lasting peace deal?

JENNIFER HANSLER, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT PRODUCER: Well, I think, Jim, they're going to look at this in whatever they think is in the U.S. interest here. That's been sort of the cornerstone of their emerging foreign policy, this America first foreign policy. But as you heard from the secretary nominee, Rubio, there, they do want to take advantage of this period for a potential new opportunity to bolster Israel's security. Rubio said, as well as take advantage of this changing, very changing landscape in the Middle East.

Now, we know, Jim, that the Biden administration has been working for months, not only on this ceasefire and hostage agreement, but also on these so-called day after plans for Gaza, once the fighting comes to an end. These are plans that Secretary Blinken, the current secretary of state, laid out in some detail yesterday, the idea of who will govern Gaza, who will reconstruct Gaza. He said that this is a plan for an interim government that will go into place, and then having security forces, bolstered by some of those regional allies, as well as these allies coming in to help bolster reconstruction of what he sees as a unified Palestinian state.

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Now, the big question here, Jim, is whether or not the incoming Trump team will take these plans that have been set out and move forward with them, or if they'll move forward on their own set of ideas. Blinken said that they would be handing these over to the incoming team, that they've had discussions. We don't get any indication necessarily, that the Trump team has agreed to move forward on these plans, but we do know that they are going to be the ones in place for the majority of this ceasefire agreement in all of its phases.

So whether that is carried out in its entirety, how it is carried out will fall on the incoming team.

State Department spokesperson Matt Miller was just asked about this moments ago, and he said it is in everyone's interest. The U.S., Israel and the region to see this ceasefire completed and the war in Gaza come to an end -- Jim.

SCIUTTO: Well, we can certainly hope. Jennifer Hansler at the State Department, thanks so much.

For more, not just on Rubio's confirmation hearing, but the ceasefire deal and what the Middle East looks like under a second Trump administration, I want to bring in Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, and GZERO Media.

Good to have you on. Thanks so much.

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER OF EURASIA GROUP: Hi, Jim.

SCIUTTO: First, let me start with the deal. I wonder here, because the outlines of this deal had been on the table for months. So, three phases, and again, there were lots of things to work out, but at least the outlines had been there for some time.

What do you credit for getting it over the finish line now?

BREMMER: I mean, I do think that Trump coming in and saying publicly and repeatedly, there would be hell to pay if all of these hostages, including Americans, were still being held when he actually was inaugurated. I mean, what does hell to pay mean?

And he said that, you know, both to the Palestinians. He said that to Hamas specifically, but also they were saying it with his Middle East envoy to the Israelis, which I think surprised some in the room.

So I think that helped get the Israelis over the line on some of the issues that they had been dragging their feet on, including withdrawal from some parts of Gaza, though not all. But, you know, in the case of Hamas and ultimately Hamas has been more the problematic party holding this up -- I mean, what might a Trump administration do? Might they be willing to support a complete cut off of all humanity? Everything a siege in Gaza?

I think people that know Trump understand that that would certainly be within the realm of possibility. And you couldn't imagine a Biden administration doing something like that. So I think that getting them involved definitely helped get this over the goal line. And I think the Biden administration would agree with that.

SCIUTTO: There's a view that Trump put pressure on Netanyahu, that Biden was not willing to do. That said, as you know, there's also a view that a Trump administration will give the Israelis anything they want. And by the way, he's appointed as his ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, someone who denies that Palestinians exist, right, and talks quite openly about annexing the West Bank and so on. Much like many right wing Israelis do.

Is that -- what's your view of how far Trump is willing to go? And will he be, in your view, that accommodating to the Israelis?

BREMMER: And you didn't mention Elise Stefanik, his appointee for ambassador to the U.N., also one of the most hawkish pro-Israel voices out there? I mean, absolutely. But I think what you and I can agree on here, Jim, is that Trump is absolutely not only more willing to beat up his enemies, but he's also more willing to beat up his friends if he doesn't get what he wants.

And so on the one hand, Trump has already said, I don't believe that a two-state solution makes sense anymore, that that time has passed. And you know, that's not what Biden is saying. So, in that regard, he's giving more to Netanyahu and the Israelis.

Trump was the one in his first term that actually moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, even though several presidents from both parties had said they were going to do it. They didn't. He actually did.

He's the one that recognized the occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel. You know, he's the one that was much more supportive of increasing illegal settlements in the West Bank. So there's no question that overall, Trump is very, very supportive of a lot of Israel's national security goals, broadly defined, and will continue to be himself and with his appointees.

Having said that, if Netanyahu tells Trump, no, I'm not going to end the war, when Trump has said, I want a ceasefire and I want a ceasefire to get these refugees out, these -- excuse me, these -- these hostages out.

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I think that -- I think that the Israeli leaders would take that very seriously. They know that Trump is willing to hit them in the face if he is disrespected or disagreed with in a way that they think they can play Biden. And I think that both of those things are true.

SCIUTTO: Prior to October 7th, the sense was that a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was quite close. October 7th blew that out. Up. Trump likes peace deals, right? I mean, he has the Abraham Accords from his first administration. Can you see him? And are the circumstances in place for getting that normalization across the finish line?

Because that, of course, would require, based on our understanding of the Saudi position, some path forward for the Palestinian people, right? Whether it's called a two-state solution, I don't know, but some path forward. So that would be a concession from Netanyahu and the Israelis. Is that a viable plan in your view?

BREMMER: It doesn't look viable today. And let's keep in mind that the Saudi government has actually referred to the Israeli war in Gaza as a genocide, which was quite a significant move. And that that's a -- that's a tough bridge to immediately cross, right? You're not -- you're not going to pull that back tomorrow.

But I think that if they go from a 42-day ceasefire into a permanent ceasefire, and if all the Israeli troops are to leave Gaza and there is some form of governance, and it doesn't have to be statehood, in my view, but certainly governance that's provided with security by the international community and some ability of the Palestinians to have some level of control over what happens inside, even if not foreign policy, border policy.

So, again, short of a state, I -- I suspect that in that environment, the Saudis, who are very close to Trump, would be extremely interested because they frankly, in reality, they don't care any more about the Palestinians today than they did before October 7th. But they understand that their people do. They understand that the Middle East more broadly, does the international community.

And so there's a level of more than lip service that that needs to be reflected in their policy position on normalization?

SCIUTTO: No question. Yeah, the pressure of the street.

Ian Bremmer, well -- we'll be watching it closely. It's going to be a lot happening in the coming weeks and months. Thanks so much.

BREMMER: Thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Coming up, saying goodbye and framing his legacy. How President Biden could use the ceasefire agreement to help shape and set the tone for his farewell address, set for primetime tonight.

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SCIUTTO: The hostage ceasefire deal, which President Biden called, quote, one of the toughest of his lifetime, is a major 11th hour achievement, as Biden prepares to hand the White House keys to Donald Trump. And it comes as tonight in primetime, Biden will deliver his farewell address from the Oval Office. That address, the capstone of a life in public service over more than 50 years.

It's also the first time Biden will address the nation from the Resolute Desk since he announced he would not seek reelection. Obviously, a critical piece of his legacy as well.

CNN's senior political analyst, Ron Brownstein, joins me now.

Ron, you know, to this legacy question, I want to start with the war in Gaza, because to some in this country and around the world, it is an enormous stain on his legacy. They see it as a genocide there.

Two others among the most hawkish pro-Israelis in this country, he never gave Israel enough aid, right? To some degree, he didn't please anybody in terms of his handling of the war.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah.

SCIUTTO: How does -- how does his Mideast policy, and specifically the war in Gaza fit into his legacy?

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah, he was whipsawed on this, you know, this agreement that was reached as, you know, better than I, there were people in the administration who thought this was coming every week, starting in January.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

BROWNSTEIN: And the inability to really turn off the war through all of 2024 undeniably had a political cost for Democrats. With frustration on the left, and, kind of disaffection and, a loss of support among center right Jewish donors and activists and obviously a big price among Arab, American and Muslim American voters in Michigan.

You know, overall, I think this will be more a negative. This will be a negative -- on his legacy. I think the sense in the Democratic coalition and I think in the foreign policy establishment more broadly, was that he drew a lot of red lines for Netanyahu and then basically looked the other way as he went over them and was unwilling to kind of impose consequences that would drive the Israeli government to deal with this in a way that the administration wanted to.

So, I think even in their own terms, this has to be looked at as more of a failure, redeemed perhaps in the 11th hour by this agreement to some extent.

SCIUTTO: So, bigger picture now, his legacy. How would you characterize specifically the foreign policy piece of the Biden legacy -- well, you know, it's interesting. I mean, I think if you look whether in foreign policy or domestic policy, Biden undeniably had major successes, major legislative successes in his first two years, major successes at kind of re-knitting together traditional Western alliances, certainly organizing the international community to deal with Putin's aggression in Ukraine, organizing the nations of Southeast Asia to deal with the threat of China.

BROWNSTEIN: But I think for most voters in the U.S., his failures eclipsed his successes. I mean, that's just the bottom line. You know, whether we're talking about the border or primarily about inflation, you know, the great job market, the great stock market for most voters who are living paycheck to paycheck, that was much more abstract than the difficulty in meeting their grocery bills and putting shoes on the kids.

And I think in terms of foreign policy, where he, you know, as I said, he had a lot of success at bringing together kind of the traditional view of America as the leader of a coalition of democracies around the world.

The major foreign policy issue that most Americans probably assessed him on was the inability to really get control at the border. So in some ways, it's kind of a tragic legacy of a president who did achieve, I think, a lot of what he set out to do on both domestic and foreign fronts, but had big failures and that those failures mattered more for the electorate.

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It's not that dissimilar in my mind to the situation that Jimmy Carter faced at the end of his four years, and in some ways, as I wrote last week, the public backlash against the public disappointment in Biden's record, the low approval rating for him has created an opportunity for Trump to build a much broader base of support than he had in his first presidential term.

We'll see if Trump has the instincts to really take advantage of that opportunity.

SCIUTTO: No question. And we'll see how the history books look at it, right? Sometimes the view in the moment is different from how it's seen over time. And of course, that could get worse over time, too.

Ron Brownstein, thanks so much.

BROWNSTEIN: Well -- thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Okay. BROWNSTEIN: Well, real quick. By his own -- by his own measure, his

top goal was to prevent to neutralize the threat that Trump presented to American democracy in his eyes. And on that front, he ultimately failed.

SCIUTTO: No question. Ron Brownstein, thank you. After the break, we are live in hostage square in Tel Aviv, where Israelis are now reacting to the deal reached with Hamas, which will see the release of 33 Israelis who were taken on October 7th.

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SCIUTTO: Welcome back.

We continue to follow news that Israel and Hamas have reached that cease fire and hostage deal.

Bianna Golodryga joins us now live from Hostage Square in Tel Aviv.

Bianna, I know you've been speaking to families of hostages over the past year. Tell us about their reactions to this news.

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN SENIOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Jim, first, let me tell you about hostage square, where I am now, because I know you spent a lot of time here, and I was rather surprised to see. Not that many people come out upon news of a hostage ceasefire agreement. And the mood here is rather somber. It's definitely not celebratory.

And people here reflecting, I think about the -- the 15 months of this past year and wanting to bring these hostages home. Now since 466 days ago. But at the same time, and to answer your question about the families, many of them say they'll believe it when they see it. They'll be very excited to see the first of the 33 come home on Sunday. This will be over a six week period -- women, children, men over the age of 50 and those who are critically wounded or ill.

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But there's also a lot of concern about what that means for the remainder of the hostages, who would be released in phase two, and then ultimately phase three. And so that's where you're starting to sense that people realize that this deal, though most would agree is worth making, is one that comes at a very high cost. And there's still a lot of uncertainty about what happens after phase one.

And President Biden said today that even if the ceasefire doesn't hold, that the deal will continue into phase two. We've seen how fragile these ceasefires can be in the past. Just look at the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon right now. Obviously, a lot more at stake for Israelis here, given that 98 hostages remain in Gaza, though.

SCIUTTO: Yeah. And then some families who are going to get the sad news, the revelation that their loved ones are no longer alive. There's that fear, too.

Bianna Golodryga, we do appreciate it. Thanks for joining.

And thanks so much to all of you for joining me today. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington.

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