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First Move with Julia Chatterley

Showdown Outside S. Korean President's Home; Hegseth Faces Skeptical Democrats in Confirmation Hearing; Hegseth Questioned in Confirmation Hearing; L.A. Firefighters Battle High Winds; Israel-Gaza Ceasefire-Hostage Deal. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired January 14, 2025 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:00:00]

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: It's 8:00 a.m. in Seoul, 3:00 p.m. in Los Angeles, and 6:00 p.m. here in Atlanta. I'm Rafael Romo, in for Julia

Chatterley. And wherever you are in this world, this is your "First Move."

A warm welcome to "First Move." And here's today's need to know. Stand up in Seoul. A new attempt to arrest the South Korean president as police and

protesters gather near his home. We'll have the latest.

Heated hearing. Pete Hegseth, President-Elect Trump's choice to run the Pentagon, faces skeptical Democrats at his confirmation hearing.

Battling the blazes. Firefighters in California once again navigate high winds as wildfires continue to burn.

And on the brink of a hostage and ceasefire deal for Gaza could come at any time says U.S. Secretary Antony Blinken. All that and plenty more coming

up.

But first authorities in South Korea are once again trying to detain President Yoon Suk Yeol for questioning, this according to South Korea news

agency, Yonhap. Investigators want to speak to Mr. Yoon about his brief declaration of martial law in December. Officials tried to take him into

custody earlier this month. However, they were blocked by soldiers and the president's security detail.

Mike Valerio joins me now from Seoul. A very cold morning I understand, Mike. What can you tell us about the situation currently there?

MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Rafael, it seems as though investigators have gone through the first line of three lines of barricades

that are in front of the official residents of the suspended president of South Korea.

So, where we are, we're just about a few hundred meters away from the front entrance of the suspended president's home. There are hundreds of

protesters, Rafael, who have been here on and off for the better part of two and a half weeks.

So, to bring our viewers up to speed, this whole tableau that we're seeing is to hold South Korea's suspended president accountable for his

declaration of martial law on December 3rd. What we're seeing right here, all these South Korean and American flags, are conservative supporters of

South Korea's suspended president who's now going through an impeachment process of them saying that this effort to hold him accountable is, in

their view, illegal and should not go forward.

Of course, there are a whole multitude of people throughout South Korea who are saying that this is a challenge to democracy, that his declaration of

martial law on December 3rd is far from the norms of what this democratic bastion in East Asia is accustomed to or has been accustomed to for

generations, and he needs to face police questioning in response to what he did.

So, what we are watching from our cameras and our affiliate cameras are whether or not corruption investigators and members of the police force are

going to be able to bring in Yoon Suk Yeol in for questioning.

And that is an unanswered question, Rafael, because what we saw on January 3rd were investigators trying to arrest the suspended president and his

version of the Secret Service saying, I don't think so. We're here to protect our guy. You're not going to bring him in for questioning.

So, this is very much a test of different democratic elements of South Korea's government that are in opposition to one another. The Secret

Service protecting the suspended president and investigators trying to carry out a warrant from a judge to question Yoon Suk Yeol about his

martial law declaration, Rafael.

ROMO: And, Mike, they seem to be pretty determined. It's 8:00 in the morning, minus six Celsius. What's -- what are they telling you?

VALERIO: You know, repeat the question one more time. What is who telling us? Sorry. It's a little loud here, Rafael. One more time.

ROMO: The protesters seem to be very determined. It's minus six Celsius, 6:00 in the morning.

VALERIO: Well, you know, they are standing by Yoon Suk Yeol. So, a lot of people who you'll meet here, they might say, and they have told us, martial

law, not the best idea. Martial law declared on December 3rd. So, President Yoon -- now suspended President Yoon could pull his agenda through the

National Assembly, which from his point of view was being hampered by members of the opposition.

[18:05:00]

So, a lot of supporters here are saying, they might disagree with martial law, which threw the nation into chaos, but they are here to support him

and his conservative policies. They view the opposite party as holding sympathies, some of them, some members of the opposition, towards North

Korea, sympathetic towards communist ideology.

So, they are gathered here to say no. You know, our guy is a vanguard against those forces. So, they are saying that they are going to support

him no matter what.

ROMO: Mike Valerio in Seoul, thank you very much. I want to bring in Jeremy Chan, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia

Group. Thank you very much for joining us. What do you make of this new attempt to detain the embattled leader? Why do you think South Korean

authorities investigating President Yoon are trying again?

JEREMY CHAN, SENIOR ANALYST ON CHINA AND NORTHEAST ASIA, EURASIA GROUP: Well, thank you. It's a good question, Rafael. Since the failed attempt on

January 3rd, the CIO, the Corruption Investigation Office and police have signaled that will make a second attempt and that they'll be more

successful in this endeavor.

So, pressure has been building over the subsequent sort of 12 days. So, as we waited for when this extended warrant would actually be sort of

executed, we see them making their move today. That was signaled a bit yesterday that it would be coming forth.

They're obviously rolling in with greater numbers this time, reportedly 1,000 police officers, and they seem to have brought more effective tools

this time, ladders to circumvent some of the blockades that President Yoon's Security Services have installed as well as body cameras on the

police. So, it looks like they're not going to be going home today with without President Yoon probably in handcuffs.

ROMO: For weeks, Jeremy, the embattled president has been holed up in his fortified residence. This situation, of course, is not sustainable. What's

the best scenario when it comes to governance in South Korea? What would be the least disruptive option?

CHAN: Well, the least disruptive option, I think, would be for the CIO and the police to essentially suspend or slow down the parallel -- criminal

investigation and allow the constitutional court to rule on the impeachment motion that was passed by the National Assembly on December 14th, which

suspended Yoon's presidential powers, but didn't remove him from the presidency.

Once the court rules on the constitutionality, the legality of that motion, and we believe that they will as early as the end of next month, that would

formally remove President Yoon from office, and that would end a lot of the sort of Security Services, the cordons that he's been able to establish

around himself, which are blocking criminal investigators and other sort of efforts to prosecute President Yoon for insurrection related to the martial

law declaration. That'll be a lot more sort of feasible once he's no longer seated in the official residence.

ROMO: What would you say is at the root of this impasse? What does this showdown tell us about the current political environment in South Korea?

CHAN: Well, I think it tells you that the political environment is relatively cantankerous. It's poisoned and that there's high levels of

polarization. So, those on the right, the conservatives, don't trust the left and vice versa.

I think it also shows you that there are, as your correspondent said, competing mandates. You have the Security Services, which have vowed to

protect the president, being told to protect him against all -- at all costs. And then you, meanwhile, have the prosecutors and the investigators

who are bearing warrant in hand and saying, we have a constitutional and a legal duty to execute this warrant and to detain the impeached president.

So, something's got to give here.

I think you also see a broader failure within the kind of political class. The acting president, for example, President (INAUDIBLE), he's not sort of

ruled 1 way or the other on how he thinks this should go. He's basically maintaining an impartial stance.

I think all sides want to maintain sort of a level below sort of kinetic violence. I think there have been threats and the possibility of civil

unrest, which nobody would like to see, but this speaks to the fundamental sort of impossibilities right now in Korean politics to resolve some of

these thornier issues.

ROMO: And since you mentioned it, is there a risk that the violence may escalate between these two factions? I mean, the security detail trying to

defend the president and the other side?

CHAN: Oh, there's absolutely a risk of that. I would hope that they're -- that all sides will let cooler heads prevail and that won't be the outcome

of today. But you have a game of chicken playing out right now and it will play out over the next few hours where something's got to give, either the

presidential services -- or Security Services have to sort of relent and allow this, you know, substantial police force to enter the residence and

detain you, or you have to see the police officers climb down and, for the second time in 12 days, sort of fail in their mission to execute this

warrant.

[18:10:00]

Something's got to give. And there's obviously tension building on both sides until that impasse is broken, which could eventually result in

violence, either between those two government forces or related to the protestors that you see gathering outside the reside.

ROMO: Jeremy Chan, thank you very much for joining us. Now, to Washington, where Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's pick for defense secretary, faced tough

questions during his Senate confirmation hearing. Just listen to this exchange.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TIM KAINE (D-VA): Can you so casually cheat on a second wife and cheat on the mother of a child that had been born two months before, and

you tell us you are completely cleared?

PETE HEGSETH: Senator --

KAINE: How is that a complete clear?

HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY NOMINEE: Senator, her child's name is Gwendolyn Hope Hegseth. And she's a child of God, and she's seven years

old.

KAINE: And she was --

HEGSETH: I'm glad she's here.

KAINE: And you -- I assume that in each of your weddings, you've pledged to be faithful to your wife.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMO: He was also asked about excessive drinking and sexual assault allegations, as well as his shifting public views on women in combat roles.

The former Fox News host and decorated combat veteran sidestepped questions on whether he would stand up to the president-elect. Oren Liebermann has

more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. JACK REED (D-RI): You lack the character and composure and competence to hold the position of secretary of defense.

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pete Hegseth's past took over the present, especially his comments that women should not

serve in combat roles.

HEGSETH: I would be honored to have the opportunity to serve alongside you, shoulder to shoulder, men and women, black, white, all backgrounds

with a shared purpose.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): Democrats on the Armed Services Committee attacked Hegseth over past comments, demanding more than contrition and

clarity on his policy view of women in the ranks if confirmed.

SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-NY): We don't want women in the military, especially in combat. What a terrible statement. So, please, do not deny

that you've made those statements you have.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): Hegseth tried to explain that he was referring to military standards for combat roles, but couldn't give a concrete example

of how they've been lowered.

GILLIBRAND: These general --

HEGSETH: Commanders meet quotas to have a certain number of female infantry officers or infantry enlisted, and that disparages those women who

are incredibly capable of meeting that standard.

GILLIBRAND: Commanders do not have to meet quotas for the infantry. Commanders do not have to have a quota for women in the infantry That does

not exist.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): Hegseth denied the allegations of sexual assault he faces, saying they come from anonymous sources and that the sexual

encounter was consensual.

KAINE: You have admitted that you had sex while you were married to wife two after you just had fathered a child by wife three. You've admitted

that. Now, if it had been a sexual assault, that would be disqualifying to be secretary of defense, wouldn't it?

HEGSETH: It was a false claim then and a false claim now.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): Hegseth also denied allegations of excessive drinking while a host at Fox News. He has vowed to quit drinking if

confirmed.

By his own admission, Hegseth is an unorthodox pick, a Fox News host and combat veteran with little management experience. Picked to run an

organization with an $850 billion budget and millions of service members and civilians. Republicans tried to portray that as a strength.

SEN. ROGER WICKER (R-MS): The nominee is unconventional. That may be what makes Mr. Hegseth an excellent choice to improve this unacceptable status

quo.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): Hegseth tried to keep his confirmation hearing focused on what he called the warrior ethos.

HEGSETH: We're fighting in lethality and the readiness of the troops and their families will be our only focus.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): But his lack of experience at large organizations and within the Pentagon itself was laid bare like when he was asked about

international security arrangements.

SEN. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-IL): Can you name one of the three main ones that the Defense of Defense --

HEGSETH: If you're talking about defense arrangements, I mean, NATO might be one of one that you're referring to.

DUCKWORTH: Status of Forces Agreement would be one of them.

HEGSETH: Status of Forces Agreement. I've been a part of teaching about Status of Forces Agreement inside -

DUCKWORTH: But you don't remember to mention it. You're not qualified, Mr. Hegseth.

LIEBERMANN (voice-over): One of the key members of the committee is Republican Senator Joni Ernst, a combat veteran and victim of sexual

assault. She has promised to support Hegseth through the confirmation process, but so far, little else.

SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA): We have had very frank conversations.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMO: For more on this, CNN Military Analyst Colonel Cedric Leighton joins us. Thank you very much for being with us, Colonel. It's clear that the

hearing showcased the deep divisions between Republicans and Democrats. But ultimately, the idea here behind this type of hearing is to find out

whether the candidate is suitable for the job of secretary of defense. Based on what you heard, Colonel, did Pete Hegseth make a good case for

himself?

COLONEL CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST AND U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Rafael, based on what I've heard, I would say no, he did not. And

the reason I say that is because he clearly evidenced no experience. You know, take the ASEAN question, for example, from Senator Duckworth, very

clear that he did not really understand the nature of the geopolitical relationships, not only in that part of the world, but probably in a few

other parts of the world.

And he had experience at a lower level, at a more tactical level. That's wonderful to have that experience, but there needs to be much more. If

you're going to be in charge of something like the Pentagon, where you have 3 million people who are active duty, Reserve National Guard. You know, all

in, and course, civilians, all of those elements coming together to be part of the major national security apparatus in the world. And that's the

really big thing here.

[18:15:00]

He also does not really -- you know, based on what I've heard so far, at least, he does not seem to understand the interplay between other elements

of military power, such as intelligence, diplomacy, all of those elements that really are part of a real military effort and a national strategic

effort.

So, can he learn? I'm sure he can. But the problem is he is not evidence that kind of capability or that kind of understanding at this particular

point.

ROMO: Yes. Colonel, there's a lot of talk about how Hegseth apparently confused the Geneva Conventions with rules of engagement during the

hearing. Can you tell us why they need to know the difference between the two is crucial for a U.S. secretary of defense? Why does he need to know

this?

LEIGHTON: Right. So, the Geneva Conventions, in the present form, were started after World War II, and that's an international treaty. Rules of

engagement are developed by the military forces themselves when they go into a specific operation.

So, what he knows, from his experience, are rules of engagement. And he's been briefed on the Geneva Conventions. He understands that they exist. But

the problem is, is he confused or at least appeared to confuse them in the hearing. And what that really means is that he doesn't understand the

interplay between the major diplomatic efforts that have occurred in the past and could occur in the future.

And what happens at a more strategic level and then even at the tactical or operational level, which include things like the development of rules of

engagement, such as, you know, are you going -- what kind of weapons are you going to use against a specific target? You know, will you use this

type of munition? Are you going to go after a certain area? You know, can you fire on these individuals and not others? Those are the kinds of things

that are protected by the rules of engagement.

The Geneva Convention governs what those rules of engagement would be, but they are separate and distinct efforts.

ROMO: Cedric Leighton, thank you very much as always. And straight ahead, dangerous winds have returned to the Los Angeles area, complicating the

battle against wildfires. We'll see how close firefighters are at containing the flames.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:20:00]

ROMO: Now, to Los Angeles and our coverage of the deadly wildfires there. Strong winds were expected to hamper firefighting efforts today, but they

weren't as fierce as many predicted. However, they could still pick up speed overnight and the situation remains dangerous. Almost all of the big

fires in the area are at least partly contained, though a new, smaller one, the Auto Fire in Ventura County sprang up late Monday.

Meanwhile, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson warning federal aid could come with conditions. The speaker criticizing California's Democratic leaders

and saying disaster relief could offer a way to intervene.

And firefighters were already sounding the alarm about understaffing even before these latest fires began. Kyung Lah has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KYUNG LAH, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: At that commission meeting, you said it's dire. Someone will die.

FREDDY ESCOBAR, PRESIDENT, UNITED FIREFIGHTERS OF LOS ANGELES CITY: It's eerie listening to your words because that's what occurred. So, it's -- let

me just take a minute. Sorry.

LAH (voice-over): Fire Captain Freddy Escobar --

ESCOBAR: You're not supposed to make me cry.

LAH (voice-over): -- 35-year veteran of the Los Angeles Fire Department wishes he'd been wrong. And this had not happened. For years, the LAFD

Union president warned that a disaster like the Palisades Fire could happen.

And while the cataclysmic weather conditions were historic, Escobar also blames something predictable that hurt the firefight, money.

ESCOBAR: This is a woefully understaffed fire department. We either going to have a fire department that's going to reflect 2025 or we're going to

have a fire department that's going to reflect the 1960s.

LAH (voice-over): A CNN analysis shows out of the 10 biggest cities in the nation, Los Angeles ranks 9th when it comes to the number of firefighters

per resident. And it shows millions of dollars in rescue equipment is just sitting in a lot unused because the fire department can't afford to hire

the mechanics to repair it. L.A.'s fire chief said in a recent memo, the fire department staffing levels were half the size of what they should be.

ESCOBAR: If we cut one position, if we close one station, if we close one resource, the residents of Los Angeles are going to pay the ultimate

sacrifice and someone will die.

LAH (voice-over): Just last month, fire personnel packed an L.A. Fire Commission meeting, begging the city to rethink the budget.

CHUONG HO, UNITED FIREFIGHTERS OF LOS ANGELES CITY, LOCAL 112: And these cuts came at exactly the wrong time, with calls for services at an all-time

high and our firefighters at their breaking point.

TRACI PARK, LOS ANGELES CITY COUNCIL MEMBER: We are straining our department's resources beyond the brink, and we cannot continue on this

path.

LAH (voice-over): City Councilwoman Traci Park was there, too.

PARK: There are large swaths of the city with no emergency response resources available.

LAH: Are we going to be having the same conversation next year and the year after?

PARK: We can't. We can't. I think that people are rightly upset, not only that this happened, but there is a sense that we as local leaders needed to

do more for them. I feel like I let them down. And I've been screaming about it from the day I came in.

And so, I think there is an obligation of us to not let this be for nothing. I think this has to be the wakeup call.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMO: Kyung Lah reporting. Mayor Karen Bass said at a recent press conference that the budget did not have an impact because of the

unprecedented nature of the fire. The union does say they are getting support from Mayor Bass and other council members in the wake of these

fires, and they do feel more funding will come.

Nick Watt joins me from Pacific Palisades, a neighborhood devastated by the fires. Nick, what are -- what more are you hearing about how the fire in

that area started.

NICK WATT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Rafael, we are at the top of the hill here in the Palisades in the general area of origin, is what they call it.

And right now, there are investigators up there, some of them on their hands and knees looking at pebbles, blades of grass to try and figure out

which direction the fire came at. And they want to narrow it down basically to an area the size of a dinner plate.

Now, there have been a sniffer dogs up here sniffing for accelerant. Arson, of course, is on the table. They're also looking at those two power poles

up there. Power cables, of course, spark a lot of wildfires around here in California.

[18:25:00]

And the other issue is, up here, there was a fire early, early New Year's Day on the same area that this Palisades Fire, that eventually burned about

40 square miles. So, one possible theory is that there were some embers underground from that first fire that were reignited.

But listen, it's going to take months, Rafael, to really figure out what caused this fire, but they are getting closer to figuring out exactly where

it started, which is the first crucial step. Rafael.

ROMO: Nick Watt, thank you very much. For more on what to expect, I'm joined by Derek Van Dam. Derek, thank you very much. What can you tell us

regarding the winds? Is the situation going to get better for firefighters there?

DEREK VAN DAM, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, there's been some good news, Rafael, and that is that the strongest of the Santa Ana winds that were

forecast for today specifically have not materialized. That is good news. But there's always caveats with this weather forecast because they're still

anticipating winds to enhance and pick up through the course of the night tonight.

And I'll try to my best to try to describe the changes to you. What you need to know in Southern California, if you're watching right now, the area

here highlighted in pink, that is what is called a red flag warning. They highlight these regions because this area has the highest risk of rapid-

fire growth should a fire begin or spread through this region. And that's valid from right now through 6:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

But yesterday, we were talking about this particularly dangerous situation that the National Weather Service had highlighted for this moment in time.

They had since now let that relax. They've actually removed that from the area, but now they're focusing on the overnight period and into the midday

hours of Wednesday for generally the same location.

So, this area highlighted in pink and -- or rather purple, this includes the San Fernando Valley and much of Ventura County all the way to the

coastline. This is a rare PDS or particular dangerous situation. And notice the valid times on this, 3:00 a.m. this morning or this coming morning to

3:00 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. So, that's the narrow 12-hour window when they expect the strongest winds, not as strong as what we experienced last

week when the event originally started, but still a formidable threat for the area, and that is an extremely critical, particularly dangerous

situation.

So, the high wind warnings, they've been removed from this part of Western Los Angeles County and Ventura County. That's good news. There's still wind

advisories here. So, the potential though for winds 50 plus miles per hour, especially on those higher ridgetops. In fact, some of the strongest wind

gusts that we could find have exceeded 55, 60 miles per hour, even 72 in the San Gabriel Mountains.

Now, guess what? These Santa Ana winds are all fine and dandy until you have a spark that ignites a fire, right? So, that's the concern here. We

know that the tinderbox conditions on the ground make it so vulnerable for these winds to spread fire. So, that's what we don't want to see.

Right now, they're coming out of the east northeasterly direction. That's why it's putting much of Ventura County going forward here in the

crosshairs of the most critical fire danger.

So, today, we have our extreme fire threat for these areas. Tomorrow, it is a critical threat. So, that is a lower threat, but still a threshold that

we need to watch out for. And in terms of rainfall, nothing in the foreseeable future. The only exception, and we'll take it, an increase in

what's called the relative humidity as we go to more of an onshore wind for Friday and Saturday of this weekend. Rafael.

ROMO: Indeed. Thank you, Derek. Please keep us posted.

DAM: Thank you.

ROMO: On the brink of a deal. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says. A Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal could come at any time. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:30:00]

ROMO: Welcome back to "First Move" with a look at more international headlines this hour. South Korean authorities are once again trying to

arrest President Yoon. Police have reportedly breached the first line of security at the Presidential Palace. He's wanted for questioning and

multiple investigations tied to last month's brief declaration of martial law. An attempt to detain Yoon earlier this month was blocked by soldiers

and the president's security detail.

The Biden administration has announced that it will remove Cuba from the state sponsor of terrorism list. The move will come with a loosening of

U.S. sanctions. It is likely to be reversed by President-Elect Trump, who added Cuba to the list in 2021.

The FAA is investigating a close call between two airplanes flying near the airport in Phoenix, Arizona. The passenger jets flew about 360 meters from

one another before making safe landings. The incident triggered alerts in both planes. Both Delta Airlines and United said their pilots reacted

correctly.

Negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal are set to be in their final stages. It would potentially be implemented in phases, beginning with

the release of 33 hostages, according to an Israeli official. In exchange, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinians who are currently detained. A

Palestinian prisoner's group says they could be released in six waves during the first phase. Israel would maintain a presence in the Philadelphi

Corridor, while Palestinian civilians in Gaza would be allowed to return to the north. Paula Hancocks has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the closest these girls can get to going to school in Gaza. Trying to teach

each other in this school building turned displacement center, desperate for an end to the war which abruptly stopped their education, their safety,

their normality 15 months ago.

Saba Ahmed Abu Uda (ph) remembers her friends. Girls, she says, were killed in Beit Hanoun at the start of the war.

We used to play together, she says, make lunch, do our homework and study. We did everything together. I'm sad I won't find them when I go home.

Nor (ph) is 12 years old and has been displaced, she says seven times during this war. She wants to go home to see what happened to her school

friend, who she hasn't heard from for a year after her home was destroyed.

I just want to go home, she says. I want my belongings, my toys, my memories.

Northern Gaza has been decimated by Israeli airstrikes in recent months. There's no guarantee Nor's (ph) family will have a home to go back to.

Abdulrahman Salama (ph) digs through the rubble of his home in Khan Younis, hoping to find a blanket or a mattress, anything, to help his family living

in a tent by the winter sea.

[18:35:00]

There are no memories, he says. Our life has vanished. There's no future. He calls negotiations lies, saying, we celebrate a little until we see a

drone strike, an artillery shell hit or the quadcopter shoot at us.

Abu Samir (ph) walks through his neighborhood, a place he says residents no longer recognize. He asks about the day after.

Let's say a truce happens, he says, and the residents of this area return, where do they go? Is this area fit for humans to live in?

Ahmed Salama (ph) tries to repair one room in his destroyed home, mixing sand and water to make clay. He says he kept waiting to do this, thinking

negotiations would work. But he now needs to move his family from a tent on the coast, which collapses every time it rains.

They say the same thing every time, he says, but nothing happens. We want anything, anything is better than this.

With 90 percent of the population displaced, the dream of going home is prevalent, even when they know their home is likely just rubble.

Muhammad Abu Ubaid (ph) knows her house is unlikely to have survived in the largely leveled city of Rafah in the south.

I swear when the ceasefire comes, she says, I will celebrate and rejoice and I will not sleep all night. We hope that this cloud of despair finally

lifts.

Hope and despair go hand and hand in Gaza. A ceasefire has been close before, and yet, the bombs still fell.

Paula Hancocks, CNN, Abu Dhabi.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMO: Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you very much for joining us. Israeli Foreign

Minister Gideon Sa'ar says that a majority in Israel's government will support the emerging Gaza ceasefire for hostages deal.

I wanted to ask you, what are the chances that this time the conditions are set for that to happen? We've seen -- we've been at similar stages before,

right?

AARON DAVID MILLER, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND AMERICAN STATECRAFT PROGRAM, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL

PEACE: Yes, for sure. I think there are two new factors, though, that probably account for the prospects that at least the first phase of this

three-phase deal will be implemented.

Number one is the weakening of Hamas' position as a consequence of Israeli military action in Lebanon. And Iranian weakness and vulnerability and its

lack of support now, I think, for the so-called Axis of Resistance of which Hamas is a part.

The other reality is that Hamas has nothing to show for the last 15 months other than death and destruction. And this deal offers them a few cards

which they'll be able to play, I think, in order to maintain their salience and resonance in Palestinian politics.

The other issue is January 20th, in the emergence of President-Elect Trump. i think there's no doubt that both Hamas and particularly the Israelis

probably look at Trump and believe that he's much less able to be manipulated successfully than the Biden administration.

So, I think -- and that's particularly true of the prime minister, who I think wants to persuade the president, when he becomes president, that the

real agenda here is how to get rid of Iran's nuclear site. So, I think he'd like to give Donald Trump a pre-inaugural win with this agreement.

ROMO: And, Aaron, as negotiations continue in Qatar, Hamas said talks are in their final stages and an official said Israel is ready for a ceasefire.

What can you tell us about Qatar's role in getting to this stage?

MILLER: I think the Qataris have been critically important over the course of the last year and a half. They were instrumental in the initial hostage

exchange in November '23, along with the Egyptians. They no longer formally, at least, tacitly host senior leaders. They've been under

pressure clearly from the United States as a consequence in the wake of Hamas' willful execution of those six hostages, including an American.

But the Qataris have ties to the leadership, the external leadership that the Israelis don't have, the Americans don't have, Northern Arab State in

that regard. And the Egyptians -- the head of Egyptian intelligence has also been instrumental in doing this deal. And in indirect negotiations

where the Israelis and Hamas officials are not negotiating directly, you need a relatively trusted emissary that retains the confidence of both

parties, and I think both Qatar at times and Egypt, and other times have played that role, and they're about to see, I think, some success for their

efforts.

[18:40:00]

ROMO: And, Aaron I have to mention this because it's happening. Protesters against the emerging Gaza ceasefire for hostages deal are marching in

Jerusalem, calling on the Israeli leadership not to, and here I quote, "surrender to Hamas." How representative would you say this group is of the

Israeli population as a whole?

MILLER: I think the vast majority, according to every public opinion poll, wants this hostage deal done, not just for partial return, because that's

what you're going to get after in a six-week ceasefire, roughly 33, 34 hostages.

But the vast majority of the Israeli public wants an all for all deal. All of the hostages returned, and the Israelis will have to make some very

tough decisions in terms of releasing Palestinian prisoners, some serving 15-year sentences, some serving life sentences that have been accused,

convicted, and tried of killing Israeli citizens.

So, this is a tough lift for both Israel and Hamas, but I think we're closer now than ever to an actual implementation, which may not occur until

next week after January 20th. And that's the other point here. If Donald Trump believed that somehow he could get this deal and it would be cleared

from his agenda, I think he was sadly mistaken.

Because the deal is going to be implemented on Donald Trump's watch. And in order to prevent it from cratering, he's going to have to pay a lot of

attention to it.

ROMO: I have about 45 seconds remaining. I wanted to ask you, before we let you go, what happens if a deal is reached? What's going to happen to

Gaza?

MILLER: I don't have much positive projection, I think, for Gaza. I think this is not -- this deal is not going to lead to an end of the war. Hamas

is going to remain as an insurgent force. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is going to be fraught because the Israelis will continue to operate

militarily in Gaza. There'll be no international force, no air boots on the ground, no Palestinian security force right now capable of replacing the

Israelis.

So, it'll be a six-week respite for millions of -- 2 million plus Gazan citizens who are suffering. And it'll be six weeks of surging of

humanitarian assistance. But that's only the beginning of trying to deal with the humanitarian costs and the reconstruction costs, not to mention

the psychological impact of an entire generation of Gazans who have been traumatized by events since October 7.

ROMO: Very well. Aaron David Miller, thank you very much indeed for being with us. And that just about wraps up the show. Thank you for joining us.

World Sport is up next.

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[18:45:00]

(WORLD SPORT)

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