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Inside Politics

Polls Show Historically Tight Race Has Barely Budged All Year; Harris, Trump Make Closing Pitches In Campaign's Final Hours; Harris: "America Is Ready For A Fresh Start"; Pennsylvania Voter Describes How She Moved Away From Trump; Iowa Poll: Harris Holds 20-Point Lead With Women. Aired 12-12:30p ET

Aired November 04, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:00]

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DANA BASH, CNN HOST, INSIDE POLITICS: Today on INSIDE POLITICS. closing time. This is it. Just 12 hours left. 12 hours left, and one of the wildest presidential campaigns in American history. And at the polls are right, one of the tightest.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have the momentum because our campaign is tapping into the ambitions, the aspirations and the dreams of the American people, because we are optimistic and excited about what we can do together.

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What a terrible job. What they have done to our country. And you're going to say that to her, you're going to say, you've done a terrible job. You're grossly incompetent. We're not going to take it anymore. Kamala, you're fired. Get the hell out of.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines at INSIDE POLITICS.

Here's how the 2024 general election started. A rematch, effectively set in late January, with no clear leader. Over the next nine plus months, we saw criminal convictions, turmoil overseas, two assassination attempts and a change at the top of the Democratic ticket. Here's how it's going.

The CNN Poll of Polls has barely budged. There is still no clear leader hours before election day. Now, if somebody tells you they know how it's going to end, they're blowing smoke. But we do know there is a very good chance it will all come down to Pennsylvania. And that is why Kamala Harris is spending her entire day there.

She's hitting at least five cities in the crucial commonwealth, including two stops focused on courting the Hispanic vote. Donald Trump is also heading to reading in Pittsburgh, also in Pennsylvania. Before heading out to Michigan, Grand Rapids there, and that is going to be his final rally, just like he did both in 2016 and in 2020.

The former president started his day in North Carolina, where he's campaigned for three straight days. He's still up there on stage. You see him there, that's live. He has been speaking for more than an hour. He talked a lot about crime and the border, but there was also a lot of this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We have a problem with it. And Michelle hit me the other day. I was so nice to her out of respect. I was saying, she hit me the other day. I was going to say to my people, am I allowed to hit her now?

But remember, she ripped up the paper behind me. There she could have gone to jail for that. You're not allowed to do that. She said, I think -- I think Nancy Pelosi is a disgrace. And by the way, the press will say, oh, he rambled. Oh, that's not really, you know what that is? That was genius. That's the wee.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Joining me now are CNN all-stars who have spent all year covering this wild campaign, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, John King and Nia- Malika Henderson. Here we are last INSIDE POLITICS, before the election. I turn to the former host of this program. What's your big picture takeaway? What do you kind of -- what are you looking at as you listen to these candidates and as you talk to the campaign?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So, the polls tell you, it's the most razor close complicated election in the 10 -- I've done this, is my 10th presidential election. That does not mean it won't break. That does not mean like in 2016 and 2020, the winner will actually have a pretty big edge in the Electoral College, right?

So, my take for people at home would be, prepare for anything. Prepare that one candidate sweeps most of the battleground states. Could be either one of them or prepare that we do have a heavy weight state by state. We don't know because it is so close. There's a smidgen, I think if you look deep into the data. The Democrats are making the case. They see a smidgen of light momentum. OK, we'll see if that's enough.

For me, it comes down to -- what is the Harris coalition. Trump is the constant. This is his third time. Never in anybody's lifetime here have you had the same candidate three elections in a row for a major party. So, he's the constant. You know, he's going to get 48 or 49 across the battleground states. The question is, can she get above that? That's the math.

BASH: Or can he increase that somehow?

KING: Can he. Can he, but he hasn't in the past too --

BASH: He hasn't.

[12:05:00] KING: He hasn't. And throughout this one, if you know, there's -- he has always over performed. In both 2016 and 2020 in the battleground states, he over performed his last poll number. Does that hold true? if so, then it's pretty easy to get you a Trump path to victory if he over performs his final number.

Or have the pollsters finally figured out his number and that's what it is. We don't know the answer to that question, which is why I actually like that. We're almost at the point now. We just actually can let people vote. Don't worry about the data. Let's count votes.

BASH: Jeff Zeleny, you just got off a plane from Michigan, where Donald Trump is going to end his day. That's where Kamala Harris ended her day yesterday. What you see?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Struck by the how different these candidates are closing. We can read somewhat into that, but not much, because they're both sort of true to form here. But last night, I was at Vice President Harris's final rally in East Lansing, Michigan on the state of Michigan State University, not surprisingly, the final day of early voting.

But it was an optimistic message. It was hopeful. Did not mention Donald Trump's name once, did not mention the word fascist or anything else, she has been really doing in the recent days. I was out with her last week in Wisconsin as well, where she was doing that. So, look, she's trying to close in a hopeful way. He is not.

But that is also his brand, and this is what she's trying to say. To John's point about the coalition, it is so interesting. This is not the Obama coalition. This is not the Biden coalition. This is the Harris coalition. Is it going to be enough?

One of my questions I kind of have in my head, and we'll find out later. Which one is viewed as the candidate of change and what kind of change do voters want? And there are a lot of Republicans or moderate independents who don't identify as Democrats, who do support her because they have had enough of Donald Trump. There is an exhaustion factor for Donald Trump.

However, depending on where you get your news. There is also -- some people who think that Vice President Harris is responsible for the border, entirely responsible for all the economy. It's almost like President Biden is not there, and they just cannot see her in the Oval Office. So, this is a America where we are not operating on the same set of facts. So that is why this election is so close.

I am with John. There is absolutely no way that I would even suggest who's going to win. We have no idea. It is that close. It feels that close, talking to voters who are sort of our North Stars out there. They are divided about this.

BASH: MJ, I just want to play a little bit of what Jeff was just referring to, some of the closing arguments from this weekend, in particular, Donald Trump and then Kamala Harris.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: She will get completely overwhelmed, meltdown, and millions of people will die. They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing. We had the safest border in the history of our country. The day that I left. I shouldn't have left. To get me somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and I don't mind that so much. I don't mind.

HARRIS: I am not looking to score political points. I am looking to make progress. I don't believe people who disagree with me are the enemy. In fact, I'll give them a seat at the table.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MJ LEE, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. I mean, I completely endorse what John was saying earlier, that this is the moment in the campaign where we don't have to talk so much about the data and the information. But the one thing we can actually talk about is just the vibes that we are getting from the campaigns and the voters that we're talking to.

I was on the phone with a senior campaign, Harris person who is so anxious that they don't want to be holed up at HQ. They would rather be just out there. So, they're in one of the battleground states for the final days. And they were saying, they are really looking at two main questions as they are going around to these organizing events and seeing what kinds of people are showing up.

One is, are the people that are showing up, the people you would expect to show up, or are you also seeing people who are showing up for the first time? And they said, it's definitely the latter. The second question that they are zeroed in on is, are people showing up with fear about the other guy or are you also seeing people showing up because they have and this is going to sound trite, but joy about the candidate that they're supporting.

And he said they're seeing a mix of both. There are definitely people who are clear eyed about the stakes, and they're definitely paying attention to the things that Donald Trump is saying. But they're also seeing the, you know, homemade t-shirts. The people who are really excited to be volunteering for the first time, and again, all of this is just vibes. It's all anecdotal, and we'll know hopefully sometime this week, is it just anecdotal, or is it actually everything?

NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah. Listen, hopefully this week --

BASH: The optimist.

HENDERSON: Yeah. I mean, I definitely think there are some dynamics that we do know. We do know that gender is going to play a huge role in this. We see that huge gender divide. She's doing much better among women. He's doing much better among men. Women obviously show up to vote a little bit more than men do and have a higher rate of showing up. So, that's good news for the Kamala Harris campaign.

[12:10:00] This Iowa poll also shows that she's doing well among independents. We'll talk about that.

BASH: Yeah.

HENDERSON: Yeah. I mean, so there are some dynamics that we know, but there are other dynamics out there, the ground game, right?

BASH: Yeah.

HENDERSON: What is this ground game going to be like for the Kamala Harris campaign? They didn't have much of a ground game in 2020 because it was 2020, because it was mail, mail in voting, and it was the pandemic year. So, what is that going to be like? You know, in terms of Donald Trump, he seems to, you know, think he can outsource some of that ground game. We'll see if that holds up in the end.

BASH: And one of the key questions, in addition to, you know, I guess it's part of ground game. Ground game is making sure that the people who you know are your voters get out. But it's also the late breakers. It's very small sliver, but here's just some of what those late breakers, if they are tuning in and looking at some of the headlines, the kind of thing that they're seeing.

These are from newspapers and news sites. Trump doesn't rule out banning vaccines if he becomes president. Trump attacks Liz Cheney as a war hawk. Trump rallies speakers lob racist insults, call Puerto Rico, island of garbage. Former chief of staff of Trump says that he fits the fascist definition, whether it is in these more traditional news outlets or whether you're getting something on your phone.

And one of the reasons, the reason you left this seat, is to go out and spend the entire year talking to those undecided voters. I want to play for our viewers what Joan London told you back in August and what she just told you.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOAN LONDON, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: If Donald Trump or J. D. Vance really says something so outrageously offensive, that could drive me to vote for Vice President Harris, but it's, it's highly unlikely. She just doesn't -- she doesn't represent my values, my beliefs about policy.

I needed to vote against allowing him to become president again. I don't want it on my conscience that that I contributed in some way to that. Sometimes you have to say American first, conservative second, Republican third.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: So, a couple things about that. She's a Nikki Haley voter. She's a Reagan Republican. She joined the Republican Party when she was 18 years old, back in 1988. She was going to write in Pat Toomey, the former conservative senator from Pennsylvania. She watched the debate, and she watched Donald Trump say, I'll negotiate an end to the Ukraine war with Vladimir Putin, and she said, Don, I'm voting for Kamala Harris.

No Republican conservative would do that. No Reagan conservative would appease a communist dictator who stole another country. She said that was it. And so, she's going to vote for Harris, even though she disagrees with her, just about everything. She said she'll write a lot of letters to the White House if Harris wins, complaining about policy, but she wants to get her old Republican Party back.

The question is, are there enough Joan London's in Pennsylvania. There are 155,000 people who voted for Nikki Haley, a couple of months after she was gone from the race. That's a protest vote. That's say, I want to vote against Donald Trump. Not only do I not support him, I want to vote against him.

Can she get enough of them? Joan lives in Berks County, close in suburbs, vote Democratic. As you move farther out, think about Loudoun County, you know, in Virginia. If states are going to turn from purple to blue, that's what happens. The Democrats make gains in the exurb. So, you're going back to the big box stores. Are there enough of her to do that in Pennsylvania?

To the other point about those headlines. I was in Arizona and Nevada on Monday and Tuesday of this week, right after the Madison Square Garden event. That blew up on Latino Spanish speaking social media. It blew up. And if Donald -- if Kamala Harris can win one of those two states or both, and the Latino vote swings a little bit her way in the end, that will be the reason.

Sometimes lately -- there were two guys in Nevada was talking to who were reluctant to talk about their choices. One on the Spanish language radio station there, he said, I'm voting for Harris. He was reluctant to talk about --

BASH: As a direct result of Madison, that --

KING: Direct result, and they said, it's insulting. It was racist. He's a Mexican American. They were talking about Mexicans, just keep having babies and things like that. He was like, done. And he said, that's the mood in the community that it changed like that.

ZELENY: It's one of the reasons the Harris campaign was so upset that President Biden stepped in it because it sorts of slowed that entire week being about that --

BASH: And she's going to a Puerto Rican restaurant in Pennsylvania.

LEE: That's right. She's going to Allentown. I was at a Milwaukee area rally for the Harris campaign on Friday night and talking to voters at that event. I mean, it was stunning how specifically they were able to talk about some of the things that were said about Madison Square Garden rally.

Again, this is all anecdotal. But it included one voter who said he's got uncles who are Donald Trump supporters. He knows for a fact they can no longer support Donald Trump. He says the reason is probably going to be because of all of this rhetoric that's coming from the Trump (ph) side.

HENDERSON: Yeah. I mean, it was Trumpism distilled in a way that we hadn't really seen, not only the rhetoric from the folks on that stage, but then the cheering and the laughter from the audience there. It broke through in a way that I think nothing I'd seen so far.

BASH: We're going to sneak in a quick break and then talk about what you were bringing up about the female vote, women making their voices heard. Will Kamala Harris win enough of them to tip the election in her favor? We're going to break down the data. Plus, looking at -- here it is. John King's home, starting tomorrow night, maybe tomorrow afternoon. He's going to give us an early look at what he's going to be watching.

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[12:20:00]

BASH: Welcome back. It's YMCA time. You see the Republican candidate for president dancing there at the end of his 90-minute speech. Plus, at his first stop in North Carolina, then he is going to head after this -- after he's done with the YMCA. He's going to go to Pennsylvania. His next stop on this all-important last day of campaigning.

Meanwhile, let's talk about something that really shocked the political world this weekend. Out of all places, a poll from Iowa. In that poll, Harris had 47, Trump 44. Now that's within the margin of error. And listen, if Harris wins Iowa, we will be having a very different conversation than anybody expects tomorrow.

But the Iowa raising data lies within. Women in Iowa, favoring Harris by 20 points, while Trump holds just a 14-point lead with Iowa men. Is that a sign that women all over the country could be even more powerful and decisive in this election than we previously thought?

My excellent panel is back now. There is -- it's a Dewine (ph) register poll. There is, I think just one person here who worked for the Dewine register --

HENDERSON: No, no. Who that would be?

BASH: Once upon a time. What do you make of that? I mean, with all the caveats that I just said, what sticks out to you in that poll? And why is it that everybody went, oh my gosh, when we saw it Saturday night.