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Laura Coates Live
Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Make Final Pushes Before Election Day as Many Weigh In. Aired 11p-12a ET
Aired November 03, 2024 - 23:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[23:00]
SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: -- her to pivot. Will it make a difference numerically this late in the game? I'm not sure.
UNKNOWN?: All right, Maria?
MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: But what voters do want to hear about is Kamala Harris and Maya Rudolph's TikTok that they did after SNL. The reason why it was so phenomenal is that I found out about it from my 17 year old daughter, Maya Luna (ph), who the very next day said, Mama Mia, and she loved it. And so, one of those people is going to be the next President of the United States.
UNKNOWN?: I didn't think it's Maya Rudolph, but everyone, thank you very much. Coming up next, Laura Coates Live.
(MUSIC)
LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to a special countdown to Election Day edition of Laura Coates live. Two days left, and there's a curious question that's now come up. Did an eighth swing state just pop up on the map because Democrats sure (ph) sounded a lot like this today?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNKNOWN?: Is this heaven?
UNKNOWN?: No, it's Iowa.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: This Field of Dreams from the Des Moines Register has been, frankly, well, just shocking. Kamala Harris now leading Donald Trump 47 to 44 in Kevin Costner's Iowa. All within the margin of error, of course. More importantly, perhaps, the poll shows momentum for Harris is being driven by women breaking her way by big margins.
Now, Donald Trump has praised legendary pollster behind the survey before, right, when they were giving him favorable results. But this time, sources tell CNN that he is fuming privately, and frankly, in public a little bit too.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One of my enemies just puts out a poll. I'm three down. Joni Ernst called me. Everyone's called me. They said, you're killing in Iowa. The farmers love me and I love them. They just announced a fake poll. Hey, think of it, right before the election, that I'm three points down. I'm not down in Iowa.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Look, maybe this poll is off the mark, but Donald Trump doesn't appear to be helping himself right now. I'll stay with the baseball analogies for a moment on this Sunday night because instead of closing this thing out like his friend Mariano Rivera, Trump appears to be throwing wild pitch after wild pitch with the bases perhaps already loaded. I mean, listen to what he said in Pennsylvania today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: And I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news, right?
(LAUGHING)
TRUMP: And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much because I don't mind. I don't mind that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: His campaign tried to clean that up by saying nothing to do with the media being harmed and added that Trump actually meant that the press, quote, were protecting him and therefore were in great danger themselves. And then there was this from that same rally. Well, just a bit more since we don't have that little soundbite, but just a bit outside for a moment.
That, of course, playing right into Democrats' efforts to remind the public about Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Harris is getting attention for what she's, well, she's not saying in these closing hours. She was in East Lansing, Michigan today at a rally where she threw the crowd a curveball. For the first time since becoming the nominee, Harris did not mention Donald Trump's name. Instead, after weeks of constant attacks, her campaign says the goal is to close, quote, fully positive.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America is ready for a fresh start, ready for a new way forward where we see our fellow American not as an enemy, but as a neighbor.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP) COATES: Joining me now, senior political commentator and former senior spokesperson for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, Karen Finney, senior adviser to the Trump-Vance presidential campaign, Bryan Lanza, Republican strategist Erin Perrine, and Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, and former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger. He has endorsed Kamala Harris for President.
Good to have you all here. I want to go right to Iowa with you, Chuck, if we can. Because this new poll showing a three point lead for Vice President Harris, Trump says it's an outlier, but how do you see that?
CHUCK ROCHA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Look, Iowa's a unique place. There's something about Iowa. It's very white, it's very flat, and it's got a lot of corn. That's given us a lot of hope because it's not a place normally Democrats do real good. And I've been working there going back to '04 with Dick Gephardt. It shows how old I am and this are real gray hairs on my face.
The thing that it really shows with Anne (ph) is is that there's momentum there with women. We assume women were mad at Donald Trump. This just in. They are mad at Donald Trump.
[23:05]
But in Iowa, what we found out is that Independent and Republican women have to be breaking his way. In this particular poll, I know Bryan will come back at me and tell me it ain't no good, but in this particular one, I'd rather have this good news than have bad news coming into this, showing that we're 10 points down. Momentum, I think, really matters with women.
And there's one thing pollsters can't tell you in any state, that is how many of the silent, not silent women vote. We've been talking about that on air. Me and Karen's been talking about that for weeks. But we can't prove that. This kind of proves that.
ERIN PERRINE, FORMER DIRECTOR OF PRESS COMMUNICATIONS, TRUMP 2020 CAMPAIGN: But I think to the point here in this Iowa poll, Donald Trump is going to win Iowa. And there is certainly an outlier nature to this poll. But when you look further into it, especially at the 65- plus demographic and towards independent women, you are seeing a break towards Democrats.
And I would argue that is a bit more of a generational break. We've got to stop thinking of voters more as 65-plus and more to the generations with which they come. And this is the boomer generation. This is the same generation that elected Ronald Reagan, that brought Bill Clinton, that brought Barack Obama, supported George W. Bush twice. And so for them, there is a regular fluid movement that I don't think pollsters have really taken on to because they're so stuck on age and on gender. Instead of thinking more broadly to these rumors (ph).
BRYAN LANZA, SENIOR ADVISER, TRUMP-VANCE CAMPAIGN: Let me add to that poll. It's I remember when we were running against Ted Cruz in 2016, the ANES Poll came out. It showed Donald Trump, I think, winning by nine or 10 points over Ted Cruz. Two days later, Ted Cruz won by half a point. I also looked at this poll. I'm not going to criticize ANES. She's gotten it right many times.
We've proven the fact that she's gotten it wrong. But one of the unique things I noticed in this poll, it said 65 or older men, white men she's carrying. That's happening nowhere else in the country. So, that, to me, is sort of an anomaly. Maybe Iowa is different. Maybe it's flat. Maybe too many radio wires are up there confusing everybody.
But you're right. I think we win Iowa. I think this is an outlier. When you look at the data, it just doesn't make sense. Sometimes you get it wrong, sometimes you get it right. 20 times you get it right, and that once you get it wrong. And we think this one's wrong.
COATES: Not one of you mentioned my Field of Dreams. Beautiful analogy. And I'm offended. So, I'm going to go to you and say, Karen, could you first compliment that wonderful moment?
KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I still believe in a place called hope?
COATES: OK, thank you. Go ahead. Now, OK maybe (ph) now you can go. Go ahead.
FINNEY: Next (ph) to (ph) Bill Clintonism (ph). That's also an Iowaism. You know, honestly at this point, there's so much that the polls can't actually measure. I'll give you an example. You know, Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris. 300,000 young people register to vote. They're not in any poll because they're not in the formulas that most of these pollsters are using.
So, my advice to people is just stay focused. The way we're going to win is by turning out our vote. And if you, what I've been looking at more is where the turnout is happening in the early vote, how much in terms of vote by mail, what's still out there, what ballots still need to be, you know, we're chasing those ballots. That's going to happen until the polls close on Tuesday.
And things look good, but we are clear eyed about the fact that there is plenty of work to be done between now and the time the polls close.
COATES: Do you see this at all as a trajectory or can you extrapolate any of you on how this would play in other midwest states that are battlegrounds? I mean, you've got -- you've got Michigan, you've got Wisconsin, you've got this now this poll in Iowa. I mean, it's not a nothing burger. It might be a bit of an outlier, but it's a couple days before the election.
LANZA: We haven't seen it mimic in any other states. You know, that's the important thing. That's a great question. You know, the midwest voter is a different voter than everywhere else. I'm from the west, some people are from the east, but they are different. And we haven't seen that reflected in either Michigan polls, where you have the vast majority of late women are breaking or even 65 or older plus white men are breaking towards Harris. We haven't seen that in Wisconsin, we haven't seen that in Michigan.
But let me tell you what we have seen. We've seen Republicans, you talk about the early vote. We've seen Republicans winning the early vote in Arizona, which is back to normal the way it used to be. We see Republicans winning their early vote in Nevada, which has never happened since the early vote taken place. We see --
FINNEY?: But you don't know who they voted for.
LANZA: We see the registration numbers. We also see North Carolina. We also --
FINNEY?: Republicans are going to be voting for her.
LANZA: That's fair.
COATES: But that's a good point, though, on that point before you finish. I mean, especially, Congressman Kinzinger. We don't know how the early votes are coming in and where they're going. And it seems as though policy is but part of the conversation for what's motivating voters. It's also character. It's also their recollection of what's happened recently in the last couple years in particular, and rhetoric and what's being said.
When you look at his comments from today, Congressman, I mean, the idea of someone who could shoot through reporters to get to him, he shouldn't have left in 2021, he talks about that as well. How do you think that's weighing on voters minds in places where they traditionally would not have been looking at Democrats?
ADAM KINZINGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, I mean, I think, look, everybody's mind's basically made up at this point. But that doesn't help Donald Trump. I mean, look, some of his base loves it because it's like, it makes people like me mad. And so, they love it. Just we're -- But the reality is he is saying things like, I wouldn't mind if some bullets went through the press box there.
And you know, and it just, I think people are getting kind of tired of it. It feels like there's an exhaustion setting in. And the one thing about Iowa, by the way, that we don't know is what's unique about it compared to everything else. Michigan, Wisconsin, they've been inundated with political ads. And I actually think the Trump campaign has done a good job with their political ads this cycle. Iowa hasn't been.
So, what they're basically consuming is just news, just raw news because they're not being hit with all these ads.
[23:10]
So, that could be a unique difference there. But one thing I loved about the Iowa poll, regardless whether it's right or wrong, is it really set Donald Trump off. And he's pretty ticket off about it.
PERRINE: Except for that one -- Except for that one portion of Iowa that was probably inundated with polls that sits in the Omaha DMA. KINZINGER: Yes, true.
PERRINE: Because if you buy into Iowa to get the whole state, you have to buy into Omaha, Nebraska, which goes into that first, second seat there that you see the Don Bacon race that's getting really (ph) heated (ph).
COATES: Well, that's also important because I see Omaha is that one spot in Electoral College votes where it could go for obviously somebody else (ph). And (ph) Governor (ph) takes all.
PERRINE: Democrats have -- That's right. It's not where winner takes all that state. And Democrats have been playing much heavier on the dollars on air in Nebraska. So, that really, I mean in Iowa, Nebraska does actually play in Iowa in a lot of ways I think people don't always recognize.
KINZINGER: The biggest question on Iowa, that poll I think showed 11% of Republicans for Kamala. That would exceed the goals of kind of Republicans for Harris. I think Biden got 6 or 8%. If it actually is 11% of Republicans going for Kamala, this can be a blowout, really.
ROCHA: It's interesting to see that this congressional district that my friend Erine is talking about there in Omaha.
PERRINE: Because we still campaign.
ROCHA: That's right. Because we campaign for a living and it's an open -- it's a seat where Don Bacon is. And I tell you this, to say that that particular seat this week in the last two weeks has moved from a toss up seat to a lean (ph) Democrat seat by the Cook Report, nonpartisan. She also moved three races more Republican. So, you can't say it's some partisan thing. So, there's something happening in that suburban area and eight of these counties that Erin's talking about are in that DMB. So, it shows something happening on the ground there.
COATES: So, why do you think it is that Harris has chosen not to mention Trump?
FINNEY: Because they made the decision and they got a lot of feedback, to be perfectly honest, that it was more important to talk about herself and what she's going to bring to the table than to talk about him. In part because what the Congressman just said, you don't need to.
Because by the way, he's doing our job for us quite nicely. You know, if we thought that people were having a little bit of amnesia of what it was like to have Trump as President, he has totally done that job for us quite nicely.
I mean, the fact that, just what he said today, that is also a reminder to people of, oh, that's what it was like. Governing by tweet. What was the last wretched thing that he said? That's either going to put our national security in jeopardy. That's either going to make us angry or anxious. So, I think she felt like, let me just make my case. Straightforward,
let me talk about what I -- Also, her vision for this country is the other piece she's really trying to talk about. Right? And it really started with her speech on the ellipse (ph) last week. And that's been the goal through Tuesday.
PERRINE: But I would even argue that that ellipse (ph) on the speech, she put a lot of emphasis on Trump and then pivoted. Her closing message really did have so much focus on Donald Trump. It wasn't until really today and in the last 24 hours or so. Right?
72 hours used to be the old get out the vote time back in the olden days of politics, where she finally decided to try to pivot back to this unity, uplifting message. But I think if there is any persuadable voter left, she's also heard her denigrate Republicans and call the people who were at the rally Nazis. There were so many other noiseful things that happened that came out of the --
FINNEY: She agreed with something that somebody else asked her.
PERRINE: OK, well, semantics at that point.
FINNEY: Not the same thing as saying, this is my frame (ph).
PERRINE: OK. Didn't come out of her mouth, but affirmatively -- affirming somebody else's position on that.
FINNEY?: General Kelly (ph), comment (ph) with (ph) you (ph).
PERRINE: Semantics. But either --
KINZINGER: But Trump did call her fascist, by the way. Let's just -- I need to put that. He actually did say that Kamala was fascist.
PERRINE: And she agreed that she was.
FINNEY: And stupid and a communist.
COATES: To be fair -- To be fair, she didn't --
KINZINGER: But my point is, she agreed with somebody --
COATES: Hold on, I want to hear everyone. Well, for the record, the olden days of politics was June.
Stand by, everyone, because still ahead, one more day of campaigning left. So, where are Harris and Trump headed and what might it tell us about their paths to victory? Plus, looks like Trump is benching who you see there. Nikki Hayley. There's no campaign events together, but it's not stopping her from giving one last parting message to voters. The question is, does she do more harm than good?
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[23:15]
(MUSIC)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: Because what do we always say?
BOTH: Keep Camala and Carryonala.
MAYA RUDOLPH, SNL COMEDIAN: I'm gonna vote for us.
HARRIS: Great. Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania?
(LAUGHING)
RUDOLPH: Nope, I am not.
HARRIS: Well, it was worth a shot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Kamala Harris joking with her doppelganger Maya Rudolph on SNL pleading, as you see, for a vote in Pennsylvania, the Keystone state could very well decide the presidential election. And the margins could not be tighter between Harris and Donald Trump. The final New York Times poll shows them tied. Tied at 48%. It's why Harris will crisscross the Commonwealth tomorrow for the final full day of the campaign, ending her journey with a star studded rally in Philadelphia.
Her campaign will cross paths with Trump in Redding and also Pittsburgh. But Trump will also spend time in two other battleground states: Raleigh, North Carolina and Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he held his final rallies, as you recall, in 2016 and also 2020. My panel is back with me. Karen, what do you make of Harris' decision to go -- to go to Pennsylvania again tomorrow? And that this is obviously a must win area for her in the march to 270, but do you think that this is the right place for her to be?
FINNEY: Yes, absolutely. Look, she's done a very good job over the last few days of really spending the time, putting in the time in the battleground states. In 2016, just the pain of Hillary not going to Wisconsin. Right?
FINNEY: And not going to some of the places where we knew she needed to get to. Just from what we were hearing on the ground. You're not hearing that. What you're hearing on the ground is excitement, enthusiasm, activity. I was just in Detroit today all day and it was exhilarating, quite frankly. So, I think Pennsylvania is absolutely the right place to be. But again, I think that's in part because she has put in the time in the other states and that matters to people in the closing days.
[23:20]
COATES: What do you make of the fact that Trump is going to other states in addition to that one? I mean, is it showing that he is either, A, confident that he's got Pennsylvania in his mind or that he feels as though there are other places he has to be to try to address possible shortcomings?
LANZA: Listen, in politics at the end, you're either running hard or you're running scared. So, the only option we have at this point is to run hard. So, you hit everything you can. But let me point out about Pennsylvania where we are. Republicans have changed. Have -- It's swung 20 points in Republicans' favor, you know, the early vote. You have the Black vote that's significantly down in Pennsylvania.
So, you have the dynamics of the early vote. The Republicans are sort of looking positive towards that. And you know, we've seen polling of the early vote that doesn't have the same, you know, the same breakdown the Iowa poll has. So, you know, from a Republican standpoint, we're very happy with the progress we've made with respect to the early votes.
We made up a tremendous amount of ground. The Black votes, you know, the African American vote's not there where it once was. So, that's probably why Kamala Harris is spending a lot of time there. I can't speculate to her campaign, but from our staff (ph), we have to be everywhere. So, we're sending all our surrogates everywhere.
ROCHA: Let me connect this to what we were talking about in Iowa. Bryan is part right in my opinion in that there may be some underperformance with certain demographics, but with white women and white folks in the suburbs. Back to this Iowa poll, it looks like we will overperform and we've been overperforming. There's something else Bryan is not mentioning is his candidate has made an effort like he didn't do four years ago to get their vote out to vote.
And they are showing up to vote. I give them credit for that. The real question is how many of them will be left by Election Day if they already early voted. So, what's the color (ph) counties? And also lastly, my son's a 35 year old steam fitter in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania with two beautiful little grand boys that call me Abuelo. Every day at his Union, they've been out knocking on doors in western Pennsylvania. That's what you don't see from the campaign is these other groups out there at the doors.
PERRINE: But I will say this. The change in the electorate in the Republican Party over the last decade has moved us more from regular high propensity voters to a lower propensity voter. That gives us a larger block to play with. So, while Republicans might be performing well now, the overtures and campaign strategy that the Trump campaign has had is to a lower propensity voter. Those are people who are going to show up on game day, on Election Day.
So, not only is it a good sign that they're showing well in the early vote, but if this turns out to be true, Republicans will do better in the long term in high turnout elections, including trying to run up the score on Election Day. And for Kamala, it's smart to be back in Pennsylvania because in the Philly area, she's got to be looking at -- she's got to be up by about half a million on Election Day to be looking at that state to be winning it (ph).
COATES: But you know who we're not seeing? Nikki Hayley. Where there could have been maybe some headway that Trump could have made had he included her as a part of the campaign. She's been saying she had different dates, and actually Congressman, she wrote in the Wall Street Journal today, quote, will Mr. Trump do some things I don't like in a second term? I'm sure he will. If that was the question before voters, then I imagine Mr. Trump would lose. Well, that might very well be the quote and maybe the question for voters.
KINZINGER: Yes, it's, look, I like Nikki Hayley, so this pains me to watch her begging for Donald Trump's approval. And that's what's happening. Let's keep in mind, Donald Trump said that he doesn't want her or her voters. He said that. And I just, my thing is, like, okay, oblige him. OK? But yes, I mean, it's interesting. I mean, it's a good point.
You know, from her perspective, she's kind -- it's kind of a lukewarm op ed that probably gives some of her voters who are on the fence and not like that gives them permission to now vote for Donald Trump. So, it's beneficial to him. But I just don't understand just like putting on my political analyst hat, like, why the Trump campaign has not tried to enlist her.
Because the one thing I can say about Donald Trump is if you ask him for forgiveness and you come back, he's usually very quick to bring you back. And that's kind of his superpower. But for whatever reason, he never did with her.
COATES: I mean, even if only just to try to humiliate you, when you come back. I want -- But Bryan, let me ask you, I mean, she got 158,000 votes in the Pennsylvania Primary. That's after she dropped out. Those are important votes. If you are the Trump campaign wanting to get Pennsylvania, why not just take the low hanging fruit?
LANZA: Yes, listen. I think at the end of the day we made the decision that we're getting 92%, 93% of the Republican vote. So Nikki, so Nikki Haley's sort of value in the Republican vote is not necessarily going to help. Where she would have helped in value would have probably been some of the -- some of the suburban women.
But you know, we're -- we're driving up the turnouts in other areas. I think the decision for Trump has always been, I'm going to do it my way, structure it my way. We're at this position, we're at a jump ball because we've done it his way. We trust his gut, we trust his instinct. It's got him in the White House once and we feel we're on the path to the White House again.
PERRINE?: But I think there are two points to that --
COATES: Well, what about -- I'm sorry, one second. I want to hear your point on this. But remind me, what about RFK? I mean, RFK Jr. you think has more value to the Trump campaign getting out voters than say Nikki Hayley?
LANZA: Well, I think the important thing for RFK is he's actually getting votes in some of these states. So, he's going there and saying vote for President Trump --
COATES: I'm not saying the level that Hayley did. LANZA: Yes, but like I said, Nikki -- Well, Donald Trump is getting 92 to 93% of Republican votes. So, those 140,000 people who voted in the -- in the Pennsylvania Primary have already lined up behind Trump. So, her Voice, Nate it makes a difference, maybe it doesn't. I think Trump, that President Trump's willing to take a risk that it won't.
PERRINE: I think the permission slip structure was already kind of built in when she endorsed Trump. So, I don't think that this op ed necessarily moves anybody else with the permission.
[23:25]
But I understand what you're saying there. But I would also say she is out campaigning down ballot as well. She is out there for Senate candidates. She's crisscrossing. So, she is still out in Pennsylvania campaigning for someone like a Dave McCormick.
And I imagine if you're out there and you are a persuadable Republican, who could have considered that, I can't imagine you are going for Kamala Harris and Dave McCormick. And so, if you saw Nikki and you might have been persuadable, she is going out there down ballot to help those races as well.
FINNEY: You know what? I went door knocking in Pennsylvania in a blue collar, majority white community. And the undecided voters that I talked to three weeks ago said, literally said to me, gee, my husband and I have been talking about the fact that we voted for Donald Trump once before, but now we don't hear him talking about us. We hear him talking about himself and his grievance and we hear him talking about tax cuts for the rich and not us.
Now, they had questions about Kamala, which I was able to answer. But if they're Republicans, they are registered Republicans. So again, I will just come back to this point. We can't judge by the turnout that we're seeing. We don't know how those Republicans are voting. It may be the case, like, if you're looking at the data and saying these counties, these people voted Republican last time, you can't say that this time because you don't know.
And I do think the power of someone like Kamala Harris standing with someone like Adam Kinzinger is very powerful. And if Donald Trump would have put his ego down for two seconds and stood with Nikki Hayley, I think it would have been very powerful.
COATES: Congressman, on this point, I mean, in the permission (ph) structures (ph), I mean, how compelling do you think it is to Republicans like yourself that Harris is saying she wants to have and give a Republican a seat at her table in a cabinet and going forward. Is that enough, you think, to compel people?
KINZINGER: Well, I think what's compelling is her message of saying unity. And again, I'm not sitting here saying that she's gonna win a quarter of Republicans. It's not gonna happen. Like, Republicans are pretty faithful to their Party. Our identity is now tied up in our political affiliation for some friggin reason. But that's what we do now. And so, but I think again if you can break 1 or 2% above what Joe
Biden, got and keep in mind Joe Biden did not make a real obvious effort to Republicans. Kamala Harris is, and I do think it's effective again this idea that now she's going to win, you know, a quarter. She's not, but it's just a little bit because every Republican that votes for Kamala Harris because, it's kind of like a Delta of two because it's one less voting for And Trump and one voting for her, so it's impact --
LANZA: I would say but none of the data supports that Harris has been able to recreate the Joe Biden coalition. Like if you -- if you do, if you look at the polling and if you look at the polling in Pennsylvania and Michigan, you've not seen the restructure of the Harris -- of the Biden coalition a lot of these --
FINNEY: Assume you mean by white voters, not Black and brown voters, we're seeing very --
PERRINE: But I think, I think it's also fair to say --
LANZA: I think Black and brown voters are moving away from the general (ph) private (ph). The data shows that.
PERRINE: It's fair to say that every campaign is going to have a different coalition, though. And I think that's true of Trump because look right now, the overtures he's making to younger -- younger men, the overtures he's making to people who are 04 (ph), low propensity, haven't voted, trying to get new people to sign up. Every coalition has to be different.
COATES: Well, we'll see what happens. This has certainly been a different election cycle. Thank you so much to all of you. Great to hear you. New reporting tonight that Harris is feeling confident in the final hours before the election. Harris surrogate and Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey is here to tell us what the campaign is seeing. Plus inside the 2024 crystal ball from the man who's accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:30]
(MUSIC)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: I don't believe people who disagree with me are the enemy.
(CHEERING)
HARRIS: In fact, I'll give them a seat at the table because that's what strong leaders do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: That was Vice President Kamala Harris because with her closing message in Michigan today, a state that she has been concerned about because CNN's latest average of polling shows no clear leader there, with Harris at 48%, Trump at 46%. And at this point in the race, I mean it's hard to tell where Harris maybe should be campaigning, because the New York Times' latest swing state poll before Election Day, Harris and Trump are closer than ever in every single battleground.
I'm going to get right to the Governor of Massachusetts, Maura Healey. She is a Harris surrogate. Governor, thank you. Harris, throughout her campaign, has called herself and referred to her ticket as the underdog. But according to The Washington Post, her campaign now is much more confident. If there is a win by narrow margins, according to that prediction, why would that be? What is the campaign seeing now?
MAURA HEALEY, GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS: Well, I can tell you what I'm seeing, Laura. I was on the ground in Pennsylvania on Friday, campaigning in Allentown and Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia. And it was next level in terms of the energy, the momentum. Yes, this is an incredibly close race. We knew it would be.
But you know, I tell something by, you know, who I talked to at the various field offices and the people who've been out canvassing, and I got to tell you, there was such a cross section, Laura, of people who have been out canvassing for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, especially people who've never canvassed before. And I think that's why there's so much momentum and energy right now behind the Vice President.
And also, you know, I think she's been really clear about her message, including everybody, including people who disagree with her in terms of her policy formulation going forward. And I think that's another really clear difference in this race.
COATES: The polls have shown that Harris has a bit of a weakness among male voters.
[23:35]
Are you concerned about that particular gap not being closed?
HEALEY: I think we see that closing. I mean, I'll just tell you anecdotally, I was there the other day in a field office in Pennsylvania with a fellow who's out canvassing for Kamala as we speak. He's an Independent, he's a businessman, and he is trying to get out there to as many Pennsylvanians as possible to talk about how devastating it would be to go back to a Trump economy.
I mean, what Trump did in terms of harming this economy, he was speaking to directly as a businessman. I also was with another man who's a Republican, Laura, and he was canvassing, and he was going door to door to talk to neighbors and talk to voters about the fact that Donald Trump, if he gets in, we're all going to see prices go up on everything we buy at Walmart or any other store out there, in contrast to what Kamala Harris is going to do for the economy.
And I think that's just anecdotally, but that's an independent gentleman and a Republican gentleman who are out there campaigning for Kamala Harris. So, you know, that's just anecdotally, but I hear these stories over and over again. I also was struck, too, by the number of men I spoke to who were really focused in on freedom. Right?
I mean, kind of in the camp of Dick Cheney and other men who've stepped forward, including all the generals and men who served with Trump in the White House who were out there supporting Kamala Harris. And I heard many men talk about that. And again, these are men who've never voted for a Democrat before in their lives.
COATES: That's exactly the area that I know the Harris campaign is hoping to target and wondering always what the impact of statements like Amilly (ph) and others have made or had on those Independent or Republican voters. We also, as you heard, we've played a clip of Harris today saying that she is going to be the President for all Americans. But I want you to listen to what New York Governor Kathy Hochul had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KATHY HOCHUL, GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK: If you're voting for these Republicans in New York, you are voting for someone who supports Donald Trump and you're anti woman, you're anti abortion, and basically you're anti American.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Is this the message that you think a Governor, a Democratic Governor, should be sending this close to the election, calling Trump voters perhaps anti American?
HEALEY: Well, I don't know the whole context of Governor Hochul's remarks. What I will say is this. You know, I speak, Laura, as somebody who is a former Attorney General, a former Prosecutor, I respect freedom and the Rule of Law in this country. And I think, like many Americans, you know, what we see in this race is a very stark distinction.
You may not agree with everything that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz stand for, but to be clear, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are on the side of freedom, are on the side of being for the people, and respect the Rule of Law and institutional norms. And while you may not agree with everything that they are espousing in terms of policy, on the other side, you've got Donald Trump who is only about himself, who is a convicted felon many times over, who acts like a wannabe tyrant and dictator. And I do not use those words as a former law official, law enforcement official lightly, but that's what the evidence shows right now in this election.
And I think that's why you see, you know, as polls, as we get closer to Election Day, and people are making up their minds, you see more and more people, particularly undecided, breaking for Harris and Walz. Because at the end of the day, you know, democracy, freedom, basic American norms and values are on the line.
I also think that Donald Trump continues to spend time denigrating people, knocking people down, you know, as my colleague and friend, Governor Shapiro says, you know, that's (ph) talking down America. Right? And in contrast, Kamala Harris tonight, very clear message. She's about having everybody at the table, including those she disagrees with. That's democracy. And that's the kind of leader, strong leader that she will be for all Americans.
COATES: Well, democracy will be in the counting that begins just hours, frankly, from now on Tuesday. Governor Healey, thank you so much.
HEALEY: Great to be with you, Laura.
COATES: Well, next, he's the man who accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections. But Professor Allan Lichtman says he's nervous about this one. The man with the crystal ball is my guest in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:40]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FUTURE, AMERICAN ICON AND RAPPER: I got the keys, keys, keys. I got the keys, keys, keys. I got the keys, keys, keys. I got the keys, keys, keys.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: We've got the man with the keys here with us tonight, the one and only Professor Allan Lichtman. He has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 elections, and the one he got wrong, 2000, he argues he actually got right since Al Gore beat George W. Bush in the popular vote. So, exactly how does Lichtman make his predictions?
Well, he says we should follow his 13 keys to at White House. They include things like incumbency and third party candidates, state of the economy and social unrest. If six or more go against the party in the White House, its candidate will lose.
[23:45]
Fewer than six, its candidate will win. It's one of the keys saying today. Let's bring in Allan Lichtman to talk all about it. Professor Lichtman, look, your keys are pointing toward Kamala Harris. Has anything happened in the last few weeks that makes you feel more confident in your prediction?
ALLAN LICHTMAN, DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF HISTORY, AMERICAN UNI: Nothing has changed. And by the way, I didn't say I was right in 2000 because of the popular vote. I said I predicted the right President based on the intent of the voters in Florida, as I proved in my 2001 report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. But historians will be debating 2000 forever. Nothing has changed.
The biggest myth in American politics is the so-called October surprise. I've always issued my predictions before then and never changed them. In 2016, for example, we had the biggest October surprise. Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women.
And a lot of women coming out and then saying, yes, he did that to me. Even Republicans were saying he was finished. I did not change my prediction of a Trump win, which Laura, you can imagine did not make me very popular in 90% plus Democratic D.C. where I teach at American University.
COATES: Well, you usually have a lot of butterflies ahead -- ahead of an election, even if you are people getting backlash or otherwise. But you have said that this year, you say you feel like you have a, I think it was a flock of crows, not just butterflies in your stomach. What makes you so anxious this time?
LICHTMAN: Well, two things. Number one, I have never experienced the kind of hate I've had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. A hate that's scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent. Security of my family has been compromised. We've had to notify the police. We've had to fortify our home. It's been terribly upsetting.
The other thing is, I believe democracy is on the line in this election. If I'm wrong, so be it. You know, I think being wrong once is not going to discredit my system. But I think if I'm wrong, then our democracy is in very serious peril. Democracy is precious, but it can be destroyed and it's almost always destroyed from within. And unfortunately, the trend of this century has been the decline of democracy all over the world. And I'm worried about our country.
COATES: I'm so sorry to hear, in addition to what you've described, what you have personally had to go through in simply predicting and using your keys. The fact that you get all the vitriol and the hatred is mind boggling to me, even though I'm not politically naive to where we are right now. I'm sorry for you and your family on that point.
For other intellectuals, though, you have been -- you and a polling legend, Nate Silver, you've been feuding over whose prediction methods are more accurate. The fights frankly have gotten pretty heated. And you just mentioned you're taking a break from taking incoming from all corners. Why do you think the climate though has gotten so nasty this time around?
LICHTMAN: It's Donald Trump, and I've never experienced this before Donald Trump. We've never had a candidate before who has dehumanized his political opposition, called them vermin, called them worse than the murderous dictator Kim Jong Un who machine guns his political opponents, called for calling out the military against U.S. citizens.
Not just criticizing Liz Cheney on her foreign policy, which would be fine, but talking about her facing nine gun barrels shooting at her. We're (ph) saying he wouldn't mind if people shot at the so called fake news, the press. This is what is different. This is what we have never seen before in American politics. He said he'd be a dictator on day one to drill, drill, drill.
Well, drilling doesn't take one day. It takes months and years. And no dictator in the history of the world has ever relinquished power after being a dictator on day one. And by the way, I didn't like Trump any better in 2016 when I predicted his win. My predictions are totally nonpartisan. I predicted the two most conservative Presidents of our time. My first prediction was of Ronald Reagan in April 1982 when 60% of Americans said he was too old to run again.
COATES: And here we are at the 11th hour of practically and your predictions you say stand and you're not changing your mind on what you've got from these different keys. I'll be really intrigued to see what happens this coming Tuesday as frankly the entire globe is as well. Allan Lichtman, always a pleasure to pick your brain. Thank you.
LICHTMAN: My pleasure. And the keys are the North Star of prediction. They don't change.
COATES: Thank you so much. First, it was cats and dogs. Now it's an Internet famous squirrel. How the animals of the world are finding themselves at the center of political controversies next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:50]
COATES: Before we go tonight, a tribute to all the animals caught up in a game they never asked to play. Politics, starting with this little guy, Peanut the squirrel, a social media celebrity in his own right, cowboy hat and all. Peanut's owner says he took in the orphaned squirrel seven years ago after the animal's mother got hit by a car in New York City.
Well, now Peanut has found an even bigger audience after taking a tragic turn. Last week, officials from the New York Environmental Conservation Department seized Peanut from his owner's home.
[23:55]
The agency says it has received complaints about wildlife being kept illegally. At some point, Peanut bit someone involved in the investigation. The squirrel had to be euthanized and tested for rabies. Then word got out, the memes spread, and Peanut's story went in a direction you would not expect.
Or maybe you would in 2024. Case in point, a post from Elon Musk citing Peanut's death as an example of government overreach, a view J.D. Vance echoed at his rally today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
J.D. VANCE, Republican Vice Presidential Candidate: Have you seen the videos of this squirrel? He's like, he's a genius. Or he was, unfortunately. But the same government that doesn't care about hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrant criminals coming into our country doesn't want us to have pets. The craziest -- The craziest thing.
(END VIDEO CLIP) COATES: OK. Now, whether Peanut needed to be killed, let alone kept as a legal pet, that's a valid debate. Certainly a question his owner cares about. But to say the government doesn't want you to have pets is, well, crazy. And speaking of crazy, you know what is crazy? Claims like this made with absolutely no evidence.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: In Springfield, they're eating the dogs. The people that came in. They're eating the cats. They're eating -- They're eating the pets of the people that live there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Not just squirrels and cats and dogs that have fallen prey to politics. Don't forget the geese.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: They take in the geese. You know where the geese are? In the park, in the lake (ph), and even walking off with their pets. My dog's been taken.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Don't forget the cows. either.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNKNOWN?: I'm six years old. I live on a farm in Massachusetts. What's your favorite farm animal?
UNKNOWN?: Favorite farm animal?
UNKNOWN?: What's the animal?
UNKNOWN?: Well, this guy grew up in the city.
TRUMP: I'll tell you what I love. I love cows. But if we go with Kamala, you won't have any cows anymore.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: Domesticated animals, wild animals, no type of critter has been spared this political cycle. Not even ones that departed this Earth a decade ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., POLITICIAN: I pulled over and I picked up the bear and put him in the back of my van because I was going to skin the bear, and it was very good condition, and I was going to and put the meat in my refrigerator. I said, let's go put the bear in Central Park and we'll make it look like he got hit by a car (ph).
(END VIDEO CLIP) COATES: The poor bear cub didn't ask for a photo op with RFK Jr. And it doesn't end there. Even animals overseas have become fodder for American politics. Remember this? Vanity Fair claims it was RFK eating a dog in Korea in 2010. He says it was a different animal on a different continent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KENNEDY JR.: The picture that they said is of me eating a dog. It's actually me eating a goat in Patagonia, on a whitewater trip many years ago on the Caleufu (ph) River.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: So, dog, goat, lamb, whatever it was, it's not alive to have any say in this matter. Neither is Kristi Noem's dog. I know that controversy feels like it's been 1,000 years since we heard about it. When we were still playing the who will Trump choose as his running mate game.
South Dakota's Governor faced heaps of backlash after revealing she shot and killed her 14 month old puppy. And why? She says it was untrainable and dangerous and less than worthless as a hunting dog. It may have even cost her in the eyes of Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNKNOWN?: You wrote in your recent book, No Going Back, about shooting your dog, Cricket. Of course, the blowback was intense there. Do you think that sharing that anecdote, whether fairly or unfairly, cost you a shot at being his Vice President?
KRISTI NOEM, South Dakota Governor: You know, I would say that that was a story from 20 years ago about me protecting my children from a vicious animal.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COATES: She also suggested in her book that President Biden's dog, Commander, should suffer the same fate as Cricket. Now, Commander was removed from the White House after multiple biting incidents. But with Biden stepping away from the presidency, his German Shepherd will hopefully be spared from getting caught up in any more political battles. We can only hope the same for all the other animals out there.
You know, maybe both parties need a non living mascot or an imaginary one because Elephant and the Donkey, they just called and said to leave them out of all of politics. Well, I want to thank you all for watching. I'll see you back here tomorrow night for another election eve Special. Anderson Cooper 360 is next.
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