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One World with Zain Asher
People Of Iowa Set To Pick The Candidate They Want To Be The Republican Nominee; Central Israel Attacks Leave One Person Killed And 17 Wounded; IMF Chief Says Jobs May Disappear Because Of Artificial Intelligence; Volcano In Southwestern Iceland Erupts. Aired 12-1p ET
Aired January 15, 2024 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[12:00:34]
ZAIN ASHER, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: All right, welcome to "One World". So good to be with you. I'm Zain Asher coming to you live from New York.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: And live from a beautiful, very snowy Davos, Switzerland, I'm Bianna Golodryga. I'm here at the World
Economic Forum talking with newsmakers from around the world. Now throughout the hour, guests will join me here on set.
ASHER: And I'll be bringing you the latest on all things U.S. politics as Iowans head to the polls. All right, it is finally here after countless
speeches, debates and town halls, the voters now get a chance to have their say in the U.S. presidential race.
In less than eight hours from now, people of Iowa are going to be gathering in libraries, in gymnasiums across the state to pick the candidate they
want to be the Republican nominee. The latest polls are showing Donald Trump with a commanding lead. I'm talking about nearly 30 points. I want
you to listen to how he's rallying his supporters right now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But these caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars,
cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, crooks, freaks, creeps, and other quite nice people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: Okay, that is how Donald Trump is selling himself. The most interesting race today may be the one for second place. Nikki Haley and Ron
DeSantis are both hoping for a strong showing that will cement their claim as the only candidate who can truly challenge the front-runner, Donald
Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RON DESANTIS, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: - have underestimated the extent where there's fluidity with this. You know, someone's like, yeah,
you know, I like Trump, but, so give them a reason to support me, and that could be the difference. So, I think you're going to see some fluidity in
the caucus sites itself, and that's why this is kind of an interesting process.
NIKKI HALEY, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Today is the day we make history. Today is the day we make history because we tune out the noise of
the media, we tune out the noise of the politicians, and we raise the voices of Americans that say we want a better day. We're going to make it
happen. Thank you. God bless you. Let's do this.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: And there is just one, pretty significant wild card in all of this, and that is the weather. Look at what Des Moines, Iowa looks like right
now. Iowa is experiencing a brutal cold snap. Temperatures there are brutal. People being warned that venturing out could indeed be very
dangerous.
And we are talking about wind chills of negative 30 degrees Celsius. It could have a pretty significant impact on turnout. Trump is telling his
voters to make sure they show up for him no matter what.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember? If you're sick, if you're just so sick you can't -- darling, I don't think --
get up, get up. You get up, you're voting. Yes, darling, because ultimately we know who calls the shots, right?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: We want to hear more about the closing messages from the candidates and about that brutal weather hitting the state today. CNN's Eva McKend
kicks off our coverage from Des Moines.
EVA MCKEND, CNN U.S. NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT (on-camera): Zain, Nikki Haley telling Iowans that they have the opportunity to set the tone
for the rest of the country. Governor DeSantis expressing confidence in the extensive ground game that his team has built here.
And former President Donald Trump telling his backers not to take anything for granted. After several months of campaigning, millions of dollars in
ads, it may all come down to how Iowans respond to this brutal weather.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MCKEND (voice-over): The 2024 presidential race is heating up as temperatures are dropping in Iowa.
HALEY: Get excited.
MCKEND (voice-over): Iowans are battling snow and below zero temperatures as they head out to caucus in the first voting event to determine the
Republican nominee for President.
TRUMP: So brave the weather and go out and save America.
MCKEND (voice-over): Iowa's GOP Chairman predicting a robust voter turnout despite frigid temperatures. The remaining candidates holding their final
campaign events in the Hawkeye State over the weekend.
DESANTIS: We have the ability -- here in Iowa, you have the ability to change the trajectory of American politics.
MCKEND (voice-over): And making their final pitches to caucus goers.
VIVEK RAMASWAMY, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By the way, in this late phase, we have seen a title win in the last 48 hours.
[12:05:00]
I think we're going to win the Iowa caucus.
HALEY: You can be the start of the solution that we have. I promise you, our best days are yet to come.
MCKEND (voice-over): Former President Trump, who holds a commanding polling lead heading into the caucus, spent the weekend campaigning in Iowa.
TRUMP: You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I got to make it. Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.
MCKEND (voice-over): During his rally, he targeted former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who's in a distant fight for second place.
TRUMP: But she's not right to be President. I know it very well. The wrong thought process, the wrong policy. And honestly, she's not tough enough.
HALEY: No one ever questions my toughness. He's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. Now, he knows this is becoming a two-person race.
So, I know that he knows the truth. It doesn't bother me at all.
MCKEND (voice-over): Trump also picked up important endorsements on the eve of the caucus, including North Dakota governor and former presidential
candidate Doug Burgum and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.
HALEY: I don't line up a bunch of endorsements to do that. I want to win the people's vote because at the end of the day, they're the ones that I'm
going to be serving.
MCKEND (voice-over): Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also faced criticism from Trump. At his final campaign stop in Iowa, he tried to distinguish
himself from the front-runner.
DESANTIS: He's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. That's what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican
in America, but if you kiss the ring, he'll say you're wonderful. You deserve a nominee that's going to put you first, not himself first.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCKEND (on-camera): And Zain, the Iowans that I'm speaking to -- faith leaders in the community, they say despite some of these very difficult
roads, despite the bitter cold that they still plan to come out and caucus tonight. They take the fact that Iowa goes first so seriously.
They think it's a great honor that they have the opportunity to hear from presidential candidates sometimes personally. And so, they want their
voices to be heard. Zain.
ASHER: Eva McKend, thank you. So, as Eva pointed out, a lot of people are going to be braving the weather there in Iowa. But merely saying that it's
really cold doesn't do it justice. It doesn't tell you just how extreme the weather right now is in Iowa. To break it down, let's bring in CNN
Meteorologist Elisa Raffa to put all of this in perspective.
So, the candidates and the voters, rather, really have to decide whether braving this weather we're seeing in Iowa is going to be worth it. Just
walk us through just how cold it is right now there.
ELISA RAFFA, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I mean, we have temperatures that are sub- zero on the Fahrenheit scale, so incredibly cold. And yes, Iowa gets cold this time of year, but this is much below average. This is extreme cold
even for them.
Temperatures right now are at minus four degrees Fahrenheit right now in Des Moines. So, sub-zero. Once you factor in the wind chill, you have these
wind chills at 20 to 30 to 40 degrees below zero, and it doesn't look like we'll hit zero degrees as we go through the day today.
So much of the state staying sub-zero. That's why we have these wind chill warnings in effect for much of the state, because we're looking at that
wind chill factor staying as cold as 30 to 35 to 40 degrees below zero. And that can cause frostbite in minutes.
Here's a look at the highs for today. Again, pretty much all of them, most of them sub-zero, one degree below zero in Des Moines today factor in the
wind chills feeling even colder. And all of these -- you see these numbers here showing us that the departure from average is 30 degrees. So, much
colder than average, not typical for Iowa.
Frostbite times are 20 to 25 minutes or less with how extreme some of these wind chills are so it doesn't take much to get frostbite out there on a day
like today. And when we look at the caucuses, the history of them, most of them are in the 30s and 40s. The coldest before this was 16 degrees in
2004. Again, today we might not break zero.
ASHER: Gosh, okay. So bottom line, it's going to be really frigid. Elisa, I think it is the first time we've had you on the show. Welcome. We're very
happy to have you here at CNN Thank you so much.
RAFFA: Yeah, thank you for having me.
ASHER: Of course, anytime. All right. I want to bring in CNN Senior Political Analyst and Anchor John Avlon, joins us live now. So, John, the
modern-day record in terms of a margin for victory for Republican nominees, of course Bob Dole 12 points, is that the number that Donald Trump has to
be? Is that Donald Trump's measure of success tonight?
JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST AND ANCHOR: No.
ASHER: Okay.
AVLON: I think the measure of success is 50 percent. That's the threshold. But, I think there's an important caveat to those historic comps. And you
know I love historic comps. They're all for non-incumbents. Donald Trump is the asterisk on non-incumbent. He is not currently President, but he is
functionally, within the Republican Party, the incumbent.
[12:10:00]
You know, we've never had a situation -- you got to go back to Grover, Cleveland for a President to run again after losing the White House. So,
it's an unprecedented situation, but he really has the stature and pull in the party of an incumbent President. And so, that's why I'm not quite
buying the Bob Dole comps as much as I like a good Bob Dole reference.
ASHER: Right, okay. So, 50 percent is what he's aiming for. Okay, so in terms of the order, are we expecting Trump-DeSantis-Haley or Trump-Haley-
DeSantis? AVLON: Look, A, I hate predictions, right? There's a great line my old columnist had about, you know, avoid looking into the looking glass
because you'll end up eating glass.
ASHER: Okay.
AVLON: You know, yeah, I do think there are a number of factors here. Clearly, Haley has momentum. She has established herself as the alternative
to Donald Trump for probably a quarter to a third of the party who are what's left of moderate Republicans, never-Trump Republicans, people who
just want to put the exhaustion of Trump and all that drama behind them. I think she's likely to outperform expectations, and she's got META behind
her.
DeSantis -- I wouldn't count out his organization, because to some extent, it reflects on Kim Reynolds, the governor of the state, very popular,
endorsed him a few months ago, and evangelical leaders like Bob Vander Plaats.
So, I think it really essentially is a three-person race. Trump, I think, is concerned about Vivek Ramaswamy taking a little bit from him. I, you
know, again, hating predictions because we should be analyzing what voters actually do. Polls don't vote, people do. I would, you know, probably bet
on Trump, Haley DeSantis. And if DeSantis comes in third, I think that's functionally the end of his campaign.
ASHER: Yeah, so after tonight, I was going to say tomorrow night, it is after tonight, you believe that DeSantis, if, you know, your predictions
are correct, and I know you don't like predictions, John, but if your predictions are correct, DeSantis is going to come in third and therefore
he will have to end his campaign. I mean there's no room. I mean if he doesn't win in Iowa, if he doesn't do well in Iowa, given everything that
he's run on, given his platform, I mean what is his future in this race?
AVLON: I think that's right. Look, he spent over $200 million, or rather his Super PAC did. And it has not been a tremendously successful effort. I
wouldn't count out his ground game and the endorsements he's got are significant. But I think he and Haley will be close to each other.
But there certainly are signs that momentum has been moving in her direction. And he's loosened up in the last bit. I thought both their town
halls on CNN were the sound of candidates really hitting their stride. But Donald Trump will do well in the rural areas. It'll be interesting to see
how the weather affects all this. Donald Trump's core support, very intense.
But people who are wavering towards him and in the more rural areas where it may be more difficult to get out, you know, this X factor is
significant, as well as whether independent voters who can caucus if they choose to join the Republican Party, what impact they may have. All TBD.
Let's wait to the votes and then let's really dig into the data tomorrow. That's my general posture.
ASHER: Okay, but you know just in terms of Nikki Haley possibly coming in second, I mean that would be monumental for her because Iowa isn't
necessarily a natural fit. You think about everything that Nikki Haley stands for who she is what she represents.
You think about the voters just how conservative they are and how they are much more of a natural fit for Ron DeSantis and, of course, Trump. What
does that say, you know, that Nikki Haley -- Nikki Haley, a child of Indian immigrants, could actually end up second in Iowa? What does that tell you
about the path for a moderate in today's Republican Party?
AVLON: Well, I think you're asking two things here, and one I think has been under discussed, because Nikki Haley is not one to play identity
politics. That was not the key to her success in the South, in fact, the opposite. But obviously she represents a historic candidacy within the
Republican Party.
The child of Indian immigrants growing up in the South, rising governor, U.N. Ambassador. And the fact that the Republican Party, which, you know,
tilts white and male decidedly, is giving her a look, I think, speaks to a healthy evolution in American politics. Remember, it's the Conservative
Party in Britain, however, that nominated Margaret Thatcher in the late 1970s albeit is an ideological hardline.
So, I think that's a healthy sign for democracy. I do think that, you know, Trump's hold on the party is a countervailing trend. And Iowa itself, I
wouldn't, you know, my wife's family is from eastern Iowa. We spent a lot of time in West Branch, Iowa. It's a great place. And Iowa nice is a real
thing. It's one of the most educated states in the country per capita.
And while the partisan divides are deep and real, you know.
[12:15:00]
I think what's more striking to me is that a party that was much more in line with sort of George W. Bush's vision of compassionate conservatism,
that the evangelical wing of the party in particular, has really been captured by Donald Trump, someone who doesn't radiate the values that have
historically been associated with Iowa conservatives.
ASHER: Right. It is an upside down world in that sense. We have to leave it there. John Avlon, always good to have you on the show. Always a pleasure.
ASHER: We'll see what happens tonight, right? As you point out --
AVLON: We will.
ASHER: -- yeah. We can't put too much stock in the polls. Let's just wait and see what happens.
AVLON: That's right.
ASHER: John, good to see you.
AVLON: You, too. Bye.
ASHER: All right. We are just learning that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been released from hospital. He was admitted on January 1st on
New Year's Day following complications from prostate cancer treatment. His stay sparked controversy after it emerged that the White House did not know
about hospitalization until three days later. The Pentagon says Austin will work remotely for a period of time before he returns to the office.
All right, later on we're going to be hitting the campaign trail once again. We'll have a live report on Ron DeSantis' plans for victory. For
now, I want to hand it over to my colleague, Bianna Golodryga, live for you in Davos.
GOLODRYGA: Thanks, Zain. Coming up for us, deadly terror attacks hit central Israel. We'll have a live report when we return. Also coming up,
world leaders gather here in Davos to talk about tackling the globe's biggest challenges, the problems and potential solutions when we return.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GOLODRYGA: We want to go now to central Israel where one person was killed and 17 others were wounded in twin terror attacks. It happened in the city
of Raanana. Police say two suspects stole vehicles and used them to run over several people. Hamas later issued a statement praising the attacks.
Let's bring in CNN's Nic Robertson who is live at the scene for us. Nic, what more are you learning?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (on-camera): Yeah, well, there were three separate attacks by these two individuals who were
relatives. This is the scene of one of those attacks. We're inside a bus shelter here. You can see it smashed. There would have been a lot of people
standing around here.
The details we have from the police about one of the scenes of the attacks, and it seems to fit this scene, because this is where they say a woman was
critically injured, the woman who in her 70s later went on to die.
[12:20:00]
But here, you can see where the car came up and just the force of it coming through that area where people are standing early afternoon waiting for a
bus. It was busy and smashing in here.
Now, again, we don't know specifically that this was the location where these statistics that we have pertain to. But it seems very likely from the
account of the police, as well as that woman who sustained critical injuries and died. There were two men. They sustained serious injuries.
There were eight other people who had moderate injuries and four other people who had light injuries.
So, a terrible attack and something that really creates fear in the people of mine, so they're just coming in their minds, when they're just coming
out in this affluent city in the center of Israel, not expecting a terror attack on their doorstep but one happening. The former Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett spoke about exactly this earlier on today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NAFTALI BENNETT, FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: The enemy is trying to attack us everywhere -- in southern Israel, in the north and also here in
central Israel. I want to be very clear for every terrorist. We're not going anywhere. We're here to stay forever. And every terrorist should also
know that we're going to get to the last of them. We will get and hunt down every terrorist so they'll know that there's a price to pay.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTSON: So, just to give a little more context now, of course, the traffic is back here, this bus shelter actually is open. While Naftali
Bennett was speaking there on tape, the bus pulled in and pulled away again. But really it has a very chilling effect. And what Hamas has done,
not taking responsibility, but praising these two attackers and telling Palestinians they should go out and do more of this.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, we know among those injured were children, as well. Nic Robertson at the scene for us in Raanana, Israel. Thank you. So, will 2024
be a year of permacrisis? That's what the World Economic Forum is asking here in the snowy Swiss resort of Davos.
Many of the world's richest and most powerful people are gathering for the forum's annual meeting. The world is facing major challenges. That is not
surprising. Sunday marked 100 days since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7th.
In Tel Aviv, crowds gathered for what they called the 100 Days of Hell Rally.
In Gaza, the Hamas-controlled health ministry says the death toll has surpassed 24,000 people, more than 60,000 injured. That conflict is already
having an impact beyond Gaza's borders. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea in support, they say, of the
Palestinian cause.
And last week, the U.S. and U.K. struck back at Houthi targets in Yemen. In a speech just hours ago, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that he
does not take any direct threat to British vessels lightly.
Now, the war in Ukraine is approaching the two-year mark and shows no sign of cooling off. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be speaking in
person in Davos tomorrow. The world will also be watching the all-important U.S. elections this year.
The first contest of the 2024 presidential race, the Iowa caucus kicking off today in bone-chilling temperatures. And to all this, the climate
emergency, global economic challenges, migration, and you have a cauldron of hot-button issues that global leaders need to tackle.
So, we have a lot to talk about with Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. He's also the author of "The Power of
Crisis: How Three Threats and Our Response Will Change the World".
Ian, it's so great to see you. So, you know, every year we look forward to your top global risks list. And I just want to focus with you on the top
three here because it really pertains to what we've introduced this segment with. So, we have the partitioning of Ukraine. We're going to be hearing
from Zelenskyy tomorrow, the Israel-Hamas war, and the U.S. versus itself.
Let's start with Israel. As we noted a terror attack today in the center of the country, clearly an indication of just how alarmed the country as a
whole is, regardless of how close they are to the war going on in Gaza, and a reminder of just how small the country is.
We mentioned the attacks, coordinated attacks from the U.K. and the U.S. in response to the Houthi strikes. That was hoped to be dismantling, at least
attempt to dismantle some of the Houthis' weaponry and their systems and their capabilities.
Just a few hours ago, we saw the Houthis launch another attack at a U.S. container ship. How concerned are you right now about what we're seeing in
Gaza, expanding beyond just Gaza?
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT AND FOUNDER, EURASIA GROUP AND GZERO MEDIA: I think it's impossible to keep the war primarily in Gaza. There are too many
avenues for escalation. The Americans are unable to deter the Houthis from further attacks in the Red Sea, especially given the support the Iranians
continue to provide them. The Americans also cannot deter Netanyahu and the war cabinet Israel from continued attacks in Gaza.
[12:25:00]
The Israelis feel isolated with enormous amounts of anti-Semitism against them and the entire country. It's not just the Prime Minister. The entire
country is like we have to get rid of Hamas. We have to undermine Hezbollah's ability to go after us. This is our opportunity to ensure that
we can defend ourselves.
Now, at the same time here we are in Davos and there are leaders from all over the world. The United States is incredibly isolated in its position in
supporting Israel in this war right now. Most of the attendees here, most of the countries here, actually view the war as a genocide against the
Palestinians.
That is very far from where the Americans are. Even Democrats that support the Palestinian cause, most of them wouldn't say that. So, talking about
just how divided the world is in an environment where the U.S. is the only policeman out there is a real challenge.
GOLODRYGA: And let's talk about the other war because these two, in a way, are connected. Last year here at Davos, all of the focus nearly was on the
war in Ukraine, which is well into its first year. Here we are well into its second year. And a big boon for Vladimir Putin, and for no other
reason, that we're talking about Israel and not aid going into Ukraine.
You're focusing on what may be an inevitable that President Zelenskyy will have to agree to, and that is some sort of partitioning. That is a hard
pill to swallow.
BREMMER: I don't think he's going to agree to it. I think that's the reality. And this is going to make him more desperate. More desperate
politically inside Ukraine, more desperate militarily vis-a-vis the Russians.
Look, we just had a day ago, 83 countries come together for a fourth effort at peace talks. The Ukrainians were there, the Russians were not, of
course. The Chinese were not, of course. There was nothing on offer. The ability to move them to here's a way we need to find to negotiate is not
there.
And furthermore, the ability of the Americans to ensure that they're going to at least have the military capacity to defend the 82 percent of the
territory that they still occupy. That's increasingly uncertain, as well.
Now, Chris Murphy, who was supposed to be here with the Congressional delegation, has stayed behind because he is working to try to ensure that
$60 billion for Ukraine will actually come through.
And the members I've spoken to, the Congressional delegation tell me that they are reasonably optimistic, there's progress there. That's good, but
that is the bare minimum to help ensure that the Ukrainians can keep their territory.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, it says something when the U.K. is delivering more than the U.S. right now.
BREMMER: Right now.
GOLODRYGA: And I recall President Biden even that that short change in phrasing, but it stood out where he said the U.S. will be with Ukraine for
as long as it takes. Now, he's saying for as long as we can.
Also, President Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, paying close attention to the U.S. elections as you are, as everyone here really is. And we really get a
first taste of how that will look in terms of Republican nominee tonight in Iowa with the results coming in from the caucuses there.
That is your number one area of concern to watch for. The U.S. versus the U.S. Talk a bit more about that. Well, I mean, there's broad panic just
underneath the snow here from all of the European leaders that are in attendance because they're deeply worried about the geopolitical
environment that a second Trump administration would be governing in.
It's very easy. If you're flying your plane at 40,000 feet and it's clear skies, you give the controls to an untested, untrusted pilot, it's probably
okay. You take that same plane and you try to land it in a hurricane-force gale and you can't see the landing strip, good chance you're going to
crash.
That's the environment we're talking about right now is that the Russian- Ukraine war -- President -- former President Trump sees Zelenskyy as a political enemy -- as a personal enemy that refused when he demanded to
actually open investigation into President Biden -- then a former Vice President, and His son Hunter. When Trump becomes president, if he wins, he
is going to demand an outcome, an end to this war that Zelenskyy will find inconceivable to accept.
GOLODRYGA: And he said he'll do that on day one.
BREMMER: On day one.
GOLODRYGA: Yes, exactly. And then he's going to shut off the aid. And when that happens, the polls, the balts, the Finns are going to go absolutely
nuts. Meanwhile, Hungary's President Orban, maybe Italy's Prime Minister Maloney, a lot of Europeans spending a lot of money saying, why are we
doing this? They're going to say, oh, let's work with Trump. This is a good opportunity to normalize with Russia. This is an existential risk for NATO,
for the European Union.
And Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, European Central Bank, came out a couple days ago and actually articulated a lot of this publicly. I will
tell you, every European leader I'm talking to privately has been saying exactly this. They just don't want to say it publicly because if they have
to work with Trump, they have to work with Trump. This is panic on the part of a lot of leaders here.
GOLODRYGA: Panic that they're going to have to wait months to get the final results from. But we're already seeing some results from elections around
the world. There are some 70. It's not only the United States. Taiwan had a big election over the weekend and for a third unprecedented term, the
current sitting party won again -- the DPP.
[12:30:00]
This is what China was hoping to avoid by threatening the state nation -- the island state for a while now and yet -- your take on the election turn.
BREMMER: My take, first of all, is that most of the other elections in the world are not actually that unstable. I mean Modi, biggest democracy in the
world, 1.4 billion people, almost 1.5, will win easily. He's got 75 percent approval ratings, very stable, friend of the Americans, leader of the
global south, that's a good thing. Mexico, very smooth. Indonesia, very smooth. European parliamentary elections, probably the same group of
parties that will win.
But Taiwan, you got the guy that, you know, is in principle, more pro- independence gave a big speech immediately saying, I am responsible for continuing cross-straits stability. The Americans doing everything they can
to show the Chinese, we don't want a crisis here.
The Chinese, their statement after this election, surprisingly, look, let's take the temperature down a little bit. We don't need another crisis on top
of our massive economic challenges. Biden doesn't need another crisis on top of everything we've been talking about.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah, exactly.
BREMMER: So, actually, U.S.-China, relations right now, kind of better managed. By the way, one of the biggest --
GOLODRYGA: And I think a big concern of yours last year and others here, as well.
BREMMER: And less so now. There are 140 Chinese and official delegations here, 10 ministers, Chinese ministers, and they are saying, what can we do
to improve our economic relations? Get some foreign direct investment in here. They don't want a crisis. That's on 2024, that's a surprise upset.
GOLODRYGA: I think that's number seven on your list, I believe.
BREMMER: Absolutely.
GOLODRYGA: Thank you, good to see you. And I'll be back in about 15 minutes with more from Davos, including an alarming warning from the IMF. They say
that A.I. technology will affect nearly 40 percent of jobs. For now, back to you, Zain.
ASHER: Thanks, Bianna. All right, still to come, the Iowa caucuses will begin in a few hours from now, and they could be make or break for Ron
DeSantis, as people say they have been out working and out organizing the competition. But will all that be enough? We'll discuss after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:35:52]
ASHER: All right, welcome back to "One World", I'm Zain Asher. Its political significance cannot be overstated. In the U.S., the first step on
the path to the presidency begins, of course, in Iowa. But it's often where failed campaigns end.
Less than eight hours from now, Republican voters will meet in groups across the state to decide which candidate do they want to challenge
President Joe Biden in the November election. But first, they will have to make another major decision, and that is whether or not to leave their
homes at all.
That's because of what you see on your screen here, bone-chilling, actually even life-threatening temperatures, the coldest in Iowa caucus history are
threatening to dampen voter turnout. As it stands now, Donald Trump is the front-runner in Iowa by a pretty substantial margin.
But Nikki Haley's campaign has also been gaining momentum. In fact, a new poll shows that the former South Carolina governor is in second place. This
is according to a new poll, with Ron DeSantis in third. Still, the Florida governor is expressing confidence in his ground game and ultimately his
overall strategy. I want you to listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Donald Trump is the party of the Washington, D.C. establishment. They've lined up behind him. I am the part -- I am the candidate that would
be a change agent in Washington, D.C. And I like that contrast.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: All right, CNN Steve Contorno is covering the DeSantis campaign. He joins us live now from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Steve, thank you so much for
being with us. Ron DeSantis will say, look, you know, I'm best positioned, given the sort of bone- chilling temperatures, I'm best positioned because
frankly, I have the best ground game.
I have the best sort of door-knocking strategy here. I mean, is he right in that sense? Is he well covered? Is he well prepared to really sort of do
well despite the blizzard?
STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: That's right, Zain. He has knocked on about a million doors here. His campaign has. They have been in this state on the
ground since early last year. They have built out this massive ground operation here. They have more than a hundred, a thousand precinct
captains.
And so they believe that they really have put in the work and they have done a lot of the work that a lot of past caucus winners have done. Ted
Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee going back into the early 2000s. All those candidates won because they had a great ground strategy and DeSantis
has adopted that going into this caucus.
But none of those candidates ever had to go up against a quasi-incumbent like Donald Trump, and that has proven to be a massive challenge for all of
these candidates, but especially for DeSantis, because he has been trying to galvanize many parts of the Republican Party where Trump is most
popular. He has been making inroads in evangelical communities.
He has been pushing this idea that he is the most conservative candidate. He passed the Six-Week Abortion Ban. He has taken steps to ease gun
restrictions in his state. All things that he thought would appeal to conservative Republicans in this state, but what he is finding is those
conservative Republicans remain enamored with Donald Trump.
They have been harder to get it to move on than they anticipated. And here he is going into caucus night with without the momentum that they had hoped
for and really hoping that the ground game makes up all the difference.
ASHER: All right, Steve Contorno, live for us there. Thank you so much. All right, time now for The Exchange and a closer look at how the Iowa caucuses
can shape the presidential race. CNN's Stephen Collinson joins us live now from Des Moines.
Stephen, always good to see you. I mean, Steve brought up -- the other Steve -- not yourself, obviously. He brought up a really good point and
that is, you know, Ron DeSantis sort of launched this campaign as being, you know, the anti-woke warrior. And in theory, that should make him --
that should be a match made in heaven for Iowa Republicans.
But it hasn't been. It hasn't worked out like that. In fact, the anti-woke messaging that he started off with, it almost seems like it's backfired and
that he's had to sort of move away from it. What does that tell us about the predictability of this race, really?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: I think it tells us that Donald Trump remains massively popular with Republican voters, not just
here in Iowa, but all over the country, as we're probably going to see play out over the next few months. Your scientist looks like exactly the profile
of a candidate who could do very well in Iowa, play out over the next few months.
[12:40:00]
DeSantis looks like exactly the profile of a candidate who could do very well in Iowa, appealing to hardline conservatives, evangelical voters who
are very important here and social conservatives. There's no one, I think, you can make an argument that has been so successful in recent years in the
United States in actually implementing this kind of hardline conservative agenda that Steve was talking about than Ron DeSantis in Florida over his
five years in power as governor.
But it's not enough. And I think this shows that conservative voters are so enamored of the histrionics, the act of Donald Trump. There's an emotional
bond to him. Polls show that most Republican voters don't want someone else. They don't think he did anything wrong after the next election and
they believe that all the legal cases against him are political persecution.
That is where we stand, I think, running into the aisle caucuses. And if Donald Trump gets a very big win tonight, I think it's going to be very
difficult to see that he does not win the Republican nomination.
ASHER: So, what is the measure of success tonight for Ron DeSantis? I mean, is he looking at possibly beating Donald Trump? I mean, that is highly
unlikely, just to be, you know, realistic. Or is the measure of success just coming in second and not embarrassing himself?
COLLINSON: Well, DeSantis said his own measure only a month ago when he predicted he'd win the Iowa caucuses. There's no one here that thinks
that's going to happen -- you're right. If he doesn't get a strong second place and do better than the expectations that have been set by that Des
Moines register poll on Saturday night when he was in third with 16 percent. I think it's very difficult how he continues in this presidential
race.
The next contest is next week in New Hampshire. That's Nikki Haley's best bet to try and get an early win against Trump. She's expected to do well
among independents and even Democrats that cross over into the Republican primary there. DeSantis isn't doing well at all with New Hampshire. It's
not a very good fit. After that, there's the Nevada caucuses, which Trump seems to have pretty much wrapped up.
And then they go to South Carolina in February. South Carolina is Nikki Haley's home state. That's where she plans to make a stand against Trump.
But it's also a state where Donald Trump Trump is exceedingly popular. I don't think I've been to many states in the United States that like Trump
more than South Carolina. So, it's again very difficult to see how DeSantis, even as he's running to the right of Trump on many issues is
going to make much impact there.
So, at that point, you get to a situation where the rationale for DeSantis starts to dry up, and probably the money that he needs from donors and
fundraising to continue on in the race.
ASHER: Yes, so tonight really is the moment of truth for him. If he doesn't get second place, it's effectively over for him, is what you're saying.
We'll see whether Donald Trump can get 50 percent as he is predicting. Stephen Collinson, always good to see you. Thank you so much.
And stay with CNN for the minute by minute results. Our special team coverage of the Iowa caucuses begins four o'clock in the afternoon. That is
Eastern time. That's basically about three and a half hours or so from now. All right, let's get back to Davos and my friend and colleague, Bianna
Golodryga. Bianna, what's up next?
GOLODRYGA: All right, Zain, I have to tell you, it's a balmy 29 degrees. So, I do feel for our colleagues that are out there in Des Moines where it
is negative 40. I'll just say it's beautiful and not too cold here.
ASHER: It's very pretty behind you.
GOLODRYGA: Coming up for us -- as the rich and power -- it is very pretty. It is very pretty. Well, it would be made even prettier when you see who my
next guest is going to be after the break. That's a little tease for you. As the rich and powerful assemble here in Davos will bring you what the
head of the IMF is saying about A.I. and the future of jobs. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:46:44]
GOLODRYGA: Jobs may disappear. That is a stark warning from the head of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF chief says that nearly 40 percent of
global employment could be disrupted by artificial intelligence.
Now, looking around you can see Davos is bedecked with A.I. ads and branding as the World Economic Forum's annual gathering gets underway. Now,
you've probably already guessed that A.I. will be a major topic here but the forum is also asking the question -- will 2024 be a year of
permacrisis? And coinciding with the big summit, Oxfam is out with its inequality report.
The charity says the five richest people on the planet have seen their fortunes more than double since 2020 alone. Richard Quest, CNN's Business
Editor-At- Large, and anchor of "Quest Means Business" is a regular here at Davos, what, number 22? Is that what you're saying?
RICHARD QUEST, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: I think it's 22 this year. They couldn't get rid of me.
GOLODRYGA: Oh, well, we are so lucky to have you here. Haven't been here in a few years. It is stunning. It is stunning.
QUEST: This is the best it gets, I have to tell you.
GOLODRYGA: And this is not A.I.-generated.
QUEST: I probably -- no, no. Just climate-control generated.
GOLODRYGA: Exactly, okay.
QUEST: Look, the thing is that the warning from the IMF is a very salient and prescient warning because not only does it say that those in jobs will
benefit. What it says is that most of the world isn't ready for A.I., therefore they will not get the benefits.
So, if you have developed economies, the OECDs all going gangbusters A.I. and a developing world economy not taking advantage or being able to take
advantage, you have a -- you have an A.I. inequality.
GOLODRYGA: So, this speaks to what we have here asking this question. Is the world ready for A.I.? I know you're talking to a lot of business
leaders here.
QUEST: We are.
GOLODRYGA: You also said, we've had A.I.
QUEST: Right, but the thing -- the question of course is, you know, are we dangerously unprepared for it on all metrics, economics, ethics, global
cooperation, understanding the power, or have we nailed it? And over the course of the week, we're going to really get to grips with that because I
think that's the core.
Look, let's be blunt about this. You go up to the promenade and it is an orgy of A.I. Every shot window is A.I. This, AI -- that. We can do this,
robustness, reliance, you name it. But the reality is this could be the tsunami that hits us like the digital fourth, like the internet, where
those without don't benefit. And that's what the IMF's warning.
GOLODRYGA: So, if last year was all about the introduction and the increased development of generative A.I., this year, a lot of the focus
will be on regulation. Are regulators prepared? We saw a policy implemented last year just a few months ago from the E.U. What do you say to that? Are
American regulators -- is the rest of the world prepared?
QUEST: Oh, it's not a classic line. They all know what they need to do. They just can't be bothered to get around to doing it. And even if they do,
the worst offenders in A.I. could and would, on disinformation, be state actors. And even if they sign up for treaties, what is it going to mean for
the implementation of them?
All we can really hope for on this is best case scenario and take it from there. But at the moment, we are a long way back from it.
[12:50:00]
And that's what they're talking about. I get a bit disgusted sometimes when I walk up there and I see just this, how much more can we move on A.I.? AI,
AI. The IMF's reminded us this is not going to be a bonanza for all.
GOLODRYGA: We've already seen a real life example of it impacting the workforce with the actor strike, right? The writer strike, concerned about
what this means.
QUEST: Yeah.
GOLODRYGA: For journalists, we've seen "The New York Times" actually file a lawsuit against Microsoft.
QUEST: I have used A.I. occasionally when I'm writing a script.
GOLODRYGA: Me, too.
QUEST: I want to know -- I want ideas. I'll do touchy-poo and a little word cloud or whatever but we've not seen the beginning of it. It's going to be
blue collar. It's not going to be the blue collar. It'll be the secretary and administrative and lower white collar that will really get -- be hit by
this and they've not been hit by this before. And the problem is, those who remain in jobs will be better off because productivity gains will increase
salaries in the developed world.
So, there'll be a large sector that does benefit. There'll be large sector that doesn't. And there'll be an even larger sector in the developing
world, in sub-Saharan Africa, that'll completely lose out.
GOLODRYGA: As always, the concern really is about inequality, the rest of the world. And do people, do you think, just part of the reason that
there's so much distrust about A.I. is when you see these big corporate tycoons, these executives of these major tech companies, they're very
bullish on it. They're very excited about that. Do you think that in essence helps raise some of the doubts?
QUEST: They're bullish but it's not because of their own venal pay packet. They're bullish because they can see great productivity for their
companies. Everybody I've spoken to here in this early time, they also say, yeah, we're using it for this and it's made this better.
We used to have 5000 -- we used to have five million calls a week to this call center. Now, we get five hundred thousand because most of it's
answered by whatever. So, that's how they see it. But here's the really -- here's the dirty little secret. The genie's out the bottle.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
QUEST: It's a bit like the internet, the information superhighway as it was called. And everybody says we've got to control it. The dot coms, it's out
of the bottle. It's how we manage it, how we prepare for it, how we make sure. And the big issue is how we ensure that those, we don't repeat the
internet problem of the digital revolution.
Those who were promised that their jobs would be secure or that benefits would be provided or retraining made available. It wasn't. That's why
there's distrust. That's why they don't believe in it, because those people got screwed over in the 90s and noughties and it's going to happen again in
the 20s and the 30s.
GOLODRYGA: So, if the 2016 and 2020 election was mired with disinformation, misinformation, foreign governments meddling, I know a concern that many
have is the role that A.I. could play in election interference, as well. Deepfakes, for example.
QUEST: Yeah, rightly so. Completely. Totally. Absolutely. So, now let me ask those people, what are you doing about it? Let me ask the Zuckerbergs.
Let me ask the Musks. What are you actually doing about it? And whatever you are doing about it, is it enough?
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
QUEST: Because what I fear is going to happen is there'll be a lot of hand- wringing when the crisis and disasters happen. When we've gone over the cliff, everybody will be going, oh, how did that happen? Oh, what on earth
happened? Oh, I didn't know. Who saw that coming?
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
QUEST: And that's where it'll all go pear-shaped.
GOLODRYGA: And this is, you know, it's a bit concerning when you have these tech companies turning to Congress saying, you regulate us.
QUEST: Brian Moynihan of Bank of America was talking to me and he sort of said, and that's why you come to Davos. Look, I'm no great lover of this
place. They know. I've got more criticisms of this place up the wazoo, but I still think that there is value in decision-makers around the world
coming together to discuss. And if you want to make the point about, yeah, they're the rich and the powerful, they're here because they're the ones
who make decisions.
GOLODRYGA: Yeah.
QUEST: That's the unfortunate, unpalatable, nasty reality. That's why they're here.
GOLODRYGA: Twenty-two years in a row you are here, my friend. Great to see you on set.
QUEST: Thank you. I tried.
GOLODRYGA: We'll see you in a couple hours.
QUEST: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: And we'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:56:17]
ASHER: And finally, a volcano in southwestern Iceland is erupting, sending lava into a nearby fishing town. You can actually see the hot molten lava
smothering homes and really anything in its path in Grindavik. It is the second eruption to hit the area in less than a month.
All right, that does it for this hour of "One World". I'm Zain Asher. Thank you so much for watching. Amanpour is up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
