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One World with Zain Asher

Sources: Hamas Leader Believed Killed In Gaza Operation; Biden Briefed On Sinwar Developments On The Way To Berlin; IDF Investigates Whether Hamas Chief Killed; Israeli Army Radio: Sinwar Believed To Have Been Killed After Israeli Tank Fired At A House In Gaza; U.S. Sources: Israel Has Confirmed That Hamas Leader Is Dead, According To Initial DNA Test; Israel Confirms To American Officials That Hamas Leader Is Dead, According To Initial DNA Tests; Aired 12-12:37p ET

Aired October 17, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:28]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST: All right. Coming to you live from New York, I'm Zain Asher.

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN HOST: And I'm Bianna Golodryga. You are watching ONE WORLD.

And we begin with breaking news on a key Israeli target since the beginning of the war in Gaza over one year ago.

ASHER: Yes. We're getting huge news. The Israeli military is looking at fingerprints and dental records in addition to DNA testing to confirm

whether or not Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar has been killed in Gaza.

Israeli army radio reports that the military detected suspicious movement on the upper floor of a house in Gaza and fired at it with a tank.

Later a drone scanned the area of the attack and soldiers actually recognized the face of Sinwar in the rubble. That is according to the radio

station.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. Israel considers Sinwar the mastermind behind the deadly October 7th attacks that triggered Israel's ground invasion of Gaza. More

than 42,000 Palestinians have since been killed since the start of the invasion.

Reminder that there are still 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza right now.

ASHER: Yes. The 62-year-old has not been seen in public since those attacks. Thought to have been hiding under the vast networks of underground

tunnels in Gaza. American officials have long looked to Sinwar's death as one of the best chances of the Israel-Hamas war potentially coming to an

end.

GOLODRYGA: And let's start with Nic Robertson in London. This is stunning news, Nic, and this is obviously an operation that Israeli officials had

said that they sought out from the start of this war, that they wanted to go after all of Hamas leadership and would not stop until they did. And

Sinwar really the last man standing, becoming the leader effectively of the organization in Gaza.

This was a routine operation that suddenly led to. We haven't had confirmation yet, but what appears to have been the death of Yahya Sinwar.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes. And I think it was the defense minister who pretty soon after October 7th said that Yahya

Sinwar was a dead man walking. That and he has subsequently today reiterated that Israel will chase down and go after leaders like Sinwar.

And this seems to be implication from the defense minister saying that again today, that he believes that this is Sinwar. We have yet to get that

complete analysis.

It -- the area in Rafah that the IDF last had any idea where Yahya Sinwar was, was right in the south, right in the southwest of Rafah Tal Al-Sultan.

And that was sort of late August. After the six hostages, the young hostages from the Nova Music Festival, were killed by Hamas in a tunnel,

the IDF found them.

They also investigated the tunnel network there. And they believe at that time that Yahya Sinwar and his brother, Mohammed Sinwar, who is this very

senior figure inside of Hamas as well, now their military commander, been joined at the hip with his brother. They've risen through the ranks of

Hamas together. That they both were in that tunnel system in Tal Al-Sultan.

Now, the IDF doesn't -- hasn't given out updates where they believe Yahya Sinwar has been. He has been essentially the most wanted target. And the

analysis they'll be doing now will be vital to know for them and for everyone else if they've got him.

But it does represent the potential for a diplomatic injection into the stultified process of ceasefire and hostage negotiations in Gaza.

I think the question is, and we have to wait for the dust to settle here and the facts to be established, who rises from that dust to lead Hamas in

Gaza and what's their attitudes like? And does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want to take this as an off-ramp? That seems to be where we are

at this moment.

ASHER: Yes. Because Sinwar was indeed a hardliner, less likely to reach a ceasefire deal in terms of negotiations.

I do want to just sort of expand on what Bianna said about sort of eliminating the leadership of Hamas, because just a few months ago,

Mohammed Deif, who was in charge of Hamas' military operations, was killed. Also, of course, in Tehran, Ismail Haniyeh, in charge of Hamas' political

wing, was killed. Saleh Al-Arouri was killed in January, who was a deputy chief, and now potentially Yahya as well.

So, what does this mean, just the sort of systematic elimination of pretty much all of Hamas' leadership, if indeed the Sinwar reports are indeed

true? What does it mean for Hamas' strategy going forward, Nic?

[12:05:07]

ROBERTSON: Hamas is an organization of resilience, it's an organization resistance, it's an organization where the leaders all expect to be, and as

they see it, martyred for the cause, that their cause doesn't stop, that their deaths are merely just part of that process, an expected part of that

process.

And I think as well, look, Mohammed Deif killed in an Israeli airstrike in -- on the 13th of July this year. He was the military commander of Hamas.

He was the one, along with Sinwar who helped build up and prepare for the October 7th attack. He was killed, but he was replaced. He was replaced by

Sinwar's brother, Mohammed Sinwar, equally hardline like Yahya Sinwar himself.

Has he been killed in this strike? We don't know. What we do know is that this is an organization that regenerates itself and will put forward new

leaders pretty quickly. What we also know is that it's an organization that has been decimated, that is not the strong political force that it was.

But even by the IDF's own calculations, Hamas, perhaps 30,000 or 40,000 or maybe more fighters on October 7th last year, the IDF estimates they've

killed maybe 17,000 of those. That leaves half the fighters out there.

The leadership, yes, decimated. But the reason that the IDF gives at the moment for re-going back into the north of Gaza and re-upping their

offensive there is because Hamas is regrouping there.

Hamas' ability to be resilient as a military mechanism, as a group of people willing to keep fighting the IDF and Israel, it hasn't stopped.

That's still there. So I think when you kill the leadership, you don't take that away.

But what you do and you may do here is get an alternate leader that's ready and prepared to come to different terms with the Israeli government than

Sinwar was prepared to. It's a bit of a gamble, hoping for that. We really don't know that at the moment.

This is an organization that really has been pressurized, crushed in many ways. But actually, and the IDF is witness to this, it still survives.

Just a couple of days ago, they fired a couple of missiles at Ashkelon, just up the coast from Gaza. Not effective there. Not the effective force

they were, but not goner.

GOLODRYGA: And, of course, an important point not to be forgotten here in all of this news is what this means for the 101 Israeli hostages that

remain in Gaza and their fate. The Hostage Family Forum tweeting earlier a statement, we call on the Israeli government world leaders and mediating

countries to leverage the military achievement into a diplomatic one by pursuing an immediate agreement for the release of all 101 hostages.

Of course, we'll continue to be following the story throughout the day.

Nic Robertson, thank you so much.

ASHER: Thank you, Nic.

All right. CNN's senior White House correspondent Kayla Tausche is traveling with President Joe Biden. She joins us live now from Berlin.

So I think the big question, Kayla, is how much, as a result of this news, is the U.S. administration going to be pressuring Netanyahu to use Yahya

Sinwar's death, if indeed it is -- it is confirmed as a potential off-ramp to get the war in Gaza to end?

KAYLA TAUSCHE, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's the position that we expect the Biden administration to take, because it's the

position that it's had for the last several months. They believed that Yahya Sinwar was the sole obstacle to getting that ceasefire deal for the

better part of a year.

The administration with a steady drumbeat of messaging on that very front. And just last week, Brett McGurk, who's the coordinator for the Middle East

for the White House, said publicly that the U.S. believed that Sinwar was alive, located in tunnels in Gaza, surrounding himself with some of these

hostages that they have been trying to get released for the better part of a year now.

We know that President Biden is currently being briefed by his national security adviser aboard Air Force One. He's also joined there by the

secretary of state, Tony Blinken.

And Sullivan, Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, is expected to speak to reporters at some point during the course of this flight.

What if anything he can say about the facts at this moment, as well as how they impact the U.S. is posturing remains to be seen.

But we do know that when President Biden greets his closest European counterparts here in Berlin for a series of meetings set to take place

tomorrow, Western officials tell me that they expect the agenda for those meetings to be upended with today's news rising to the forefront of those

discussions.

The agenda had previously been centered around finding a peaceful resolution to the situation in Lebanon and also solving the humanitarian

crisis in Gaza, as well as arming Ukraine going into the Ukraine defense contact group in a couple of months.

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But certainly these officials say there is no question that the potential for the death of Yahya Sinwar to change the outcome of this conflict in the

Middle East is now going to rise to the forefront of those discussions here in Berlin.

ASHER: All right, Kayla Tausche, live for us there. Thank you so much.

All right. Let's bring in our national security correspondent, Alexander Marquardt. So, Alex, let's be honest, previous speculation about Sinwar's

death have proven to be inaccurate. The Israelis have gone after Sinwar for years. I mean, ever since he was released as part of a prison exchange for

Gilad Shalit.

Just explain to us how hard of a target capturing Sinwar has been for the Israelis.

ALEXANDER MARQUARDT, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, very hard and obviously extremely high priority, not only for the Israelis, but

for the U.S., which has been supporting Israel in so many ways, including with intelligence to try to find Sinwar.

I think what is remarkable about what we're hearing from the Israeli side today is that they're putting out clear indications that they have a strong

belief that that is indeed Sinwar. Of course, DNA testing will confirm that, whereas in the past, with other senior Hamas officials who they

appeared to have killed, they were a lot more careful.

It took weeks, for example, following a strike that was targeting Mohammed Deif, the head of the Hamas military wing, for Israeli officials to confirm

that he was indeed killed.

So for them to come out and say so quickly that during this rather routine operation, they believe that they may have targeted Yahya Sinwar, I think

that is very notable. But they have been hunting him for more than a year now since he orchestrated the horrific attacks on Israel on October 7th.

And the prevailing sense from U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials was that he was underground in tunnels beneath the city of Khan Younis in the

south, where he's from, perhaps surrounded by hostages, so it would make it a lot harder for Israeli forces to go after him.

We were constantly asking the question about whether he maybe had used that vast tunnel system to go into Egypt and perhaps escape the Gaza Strip. But

again, top officials, the consensus among them was that he would go down with the ship, that he had no desire to leave Gaza, that he wanted to go

down fighting against Israel.

So this could be, as we've all been saying, a very significant turning point. And the U.S. is certainly looking at this moment as a possibility to

ratchet up the pressure on Netanyahu to declare a victory in Gaza, that this does provide, Zain, to use your word, an off-ramp for Netanyahu to be

able to declare an end to the war in Gaza.

Hamas, U.S. and Israeli officials believe, as a decimated organization. Fifteen thousand or more of their forces, around half or more of their

forces, have been killed. They cannot, U.S. officials believe, carry out another operation like October 7th.

But that remains very much to be seen whether Netanyahu agrees with what we expect that U.S. pressure to be.

But, also, keep in mind, the -- Israel is fighting on a number of other fronts. There's a full-on military operation underway to the north in

Lebanon. And we are expecting any day now Israel to carry out a retaliatory strike against Iran.

But no doubt, if Netanyahu were able to use this moment as a way to wind down operations in Gaza, that would significantly bring down the

temperature in the region as things appear to have been escalating over the course of the past few weeks.

ASHER: All right. Alex Marquardt, live for us. Thank you.

GOLODRYGA: I want to bring in Michael Milshtein, senior fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University and a former

advisor on Palestinian affairs at the Israeli Defense Ministry. He's also the former head of Palestinian Affairs for Israeli Military Intelligence.

And we should note, he is one of the most preeminent experts on Hamas and Yahya Sinwar. Michael, thank you so much for taking the time.

As we noted, has not been officially confirmed, that Yahya Sinwar has been killed. But assuming that news is true, can you speak to the significance

of it and how it impacts the state of the war in Gaza, whether you think Prime Minister Netanyahu will use this as an off-ramp to declare victory.

And again, let's not forget the significance of those hostages that remain in Gaza, how this impacts bringing them home.

MICHAEL MILSHTEIN, SENIOR FELLOW, INSTITUTE FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY, REICHMAN UNIVERSITY: Well, hello, Bianna. Hello, Zain.

Right now, it seems that the likelihood that Sinwar is dead is very -- is very high. And no doubt that if he is -- if he was killed, it is the most

dramatic, actually, the greatest achievement of Israel since the beginning of the war, even more important than the -- than the death of Nasrallah in

Beirut.

And we must remember that Yahya Sinwar was not symbolic leader. He was not only the symbol, by the way, not only of Hamas and of Gaza, but of all the

Palestinian arena, but also was a person, a figure with a very important functional role.

[12:15:03]

He was actually the only or maybe the dominant decision maker inside Gaza about regarding about the war, about how to manage Hamas regime and most

important of all how to promote or how to manage the negotiations over the deal -- the deal regarding the hostages.

And no doubt at all that after his killing right now actually, Hamas is in a state of a big shock. And there is a very vacuum inside Hamas. And, you

know, this vacuum is actually bigger today because the basic beehive of Hamas in Gaza, all the leadership that surrounded the Sinwar, most of this

beehive is quite empty because figures like Mohammed Deif and like Marwan Issa and Ismail Haniyeh were killed during this year.

I assess, regarding the issue of the alternative leadership and the hostages deal, that right now we have two options, two scenarios. The first

one is that Hamas will give up, will wave a white flag and there will be a total collapse of Hamas.

I must be frank enough to admit that this is the less likely scenario because Hamas is still a very radical, very hardline ideological

organization and I'm not sure that they are going to wave a white flag.

The other option is that the vacuum that was created will be filled by other figures in Gaza itself by his brother Mohammed Sinwar, who is not a

political or strategic leader like Sinwar himself, but he's more a military commander.

And I think that he will take the control over the military wing. But the strategic and the political level will be filled by the outside leadership,

people like Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar's deputy, and Khaled Mashal, both live in Qatar.

And this can be an opportunity because maybe the fact that they live in Qatar will present or will promote a leverage of Qatar, maybe even of the

U.S. administration over this leadership in order to promote more flexible positions.

But once again -- but I must be very cautious. We are only in the beginning of this event.

ASHER: Right.

MILSHTEIN: And I really -- this is my wish. And I really hope that this wish will become an assessment.

ASHER: Right. I mean, you bring up so many important points. I mean, the fact that obviously there is a vacuum that has been created, but that

Hamas, and our Nic Robertson talked about this, Hamas is an organization that is very good at regenerating itself. They will, of course, fill that

vacuum. And if they fill it with leaders who are based in Qatar, of course, gives Qatar leverage when it comes to negotiations.

I do want to ask you about the long-term goals of Israel, because, obviously, when you kill Yahya Sinwar, that provides Israel with a massive

advantage in the short term.

However, in the long term, if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues, if there is famine, if there is disease, if you have 40,000 Palestinians that

are dead within a year, then surely the animosity against Israel only strengthens.

And, therefore, the ideology that creates and sustains and fuels Hamas only lives another day. Just give us your perspective on how Israel destroys --

remember, that's their main goal. They've said that the main goal, over the past year, is to completely dismantle and destroy Hamas.

I don't see how that happens without addressing the root cause of what is fueling the ideology that creates Hamas, which is, of course, the

humanitarian crisis in Gaza and beyond that.

MILSHTEIN: A very good point. And, you know, it's quite odd to say that. But even after the death of Sinwar, we cannot -- we cannot wish for a total

collapse of Hamas. And no doubt at all that in addition to all the problems that you mentioned, I will mention another problem. And this is the fact

that till now, even after Yahya Sinwar's death, Hamas is still the prominent player in Gaza and there is no other alternative.

And if Israel really want to change dramatically things, Israel might -- must take control over all Gaza. And actually, we are in the same T-

junction that we faced half a year ago.

We have two options to take control or to occupy all Gaza and really to change or to promote changes in the minds of the people or hope to change

the minds of the people.

[12:20:07]

And I think that right now, Israel doesn't really have the willingness or the capacity to implement this goal or to promote the deal. And I really

think that during this day, we have greater opportunity to promote the deal. And I do assess that Benjamin Netanyahu has actually a letter to

climb off the tree and actually to announce about victory that will enable us to promote the release of the 101 hostages that are right now in the

hands of Hamas in Gaza.

GOLODRYGA: And you're so right to point out the opportunity now for Qatar to really step in and play an even bigger role if, in fact, we do see in

the coming hours the official announcement of the death of Yahya Sinwar.

Michael Milshtein, senior fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University and former head of Palestinian Affairs for Israeli

Military Intelligence, thank you --

ASHER: Thank you.

GOLODRYGA: -- so much for your expertise. We really appreciate it.

MILSHTEIN: Thank you.

ASHER: Still to come, as Israel's military investigates whether it killed the architect of the October 7th attacks, what is next for the people of

Gaza? That is after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GOLODRYGA: Turning now to our breaking news, Israeli sources telling CNN a man believed to be the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, appears to have been

killed in Gaza.

The Israeli military is currently conducting DNA tests. Israeli radio -- army radio reports the military detected suspicious movement at a house in

Gaza and fired at it with a tank.

ASHER: Later, a drone scanned the area of the attack and soldiers recognized the face of Sinwar in the rubble, that's according to radio

reports.

Now, if confirmed, it would be a massive blow to Hamas. Israel consider Sinwar the Mastermind of the October 7th attacks.

Khaled Elgindy is the director of the program on Palestine and Palestinian- Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute. He joins us live now from Washington, D.C.

I mean, we've been speaking about this on air, this idea that Hamas is, of course, an organization that regenerates itself. And, obviously, these

leaders can and will be replaced. Nobody is completely irreplaceable.

You've got the likes of Hamas politician Khalil al-Hayya, who has sort of embodied this kind of deputy figure in Hamas.

[12:25:05]

Now, just walk us through what his role is going to be going forward, if indeed it is confirmed that Yahya Sinwar is now dead.

KHALED ELGINDY, DIRECTOR OF THE PROGRAM ON PALESTINE AND PALESTINIAN- ISRAELI AFFAIRS, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Yes. You have al-Hayya, but you also have Khaled Mashal in Doha as well. Mashal is a former head of the

Political Bureau of Hamas. And so he's played that role in the past and he seems also a likely successor.

But it's different when it's -- when an -- when an organization -- when its leadership is outside of the country, as both al-Hayya and Mashal are.

It'll be much more interesting to see who replaces Sinwar on the ground, particularly in military terms.

We heard a little bit about Yahya Sinwar's brother, or Mohammed Sinwar, as someone who's likely to play that role. But, yes, at the end of the day,

all of these people are replaceable.

The notion that Israel was going to completely eradicate Hamas as a military and political movement, I think was always fanciful, was never

really achievable. And something, I mean, I think even Benjamin Netanyahu understands that.

I think -- I think the goal of total victory was really just a way to perpetuate the war in order to keep him in power and keep his coalition

intact.

So -- but there's no question that Sinwar's death, if in fact it's confirmed, is a huge blow and an opportunity at the same time because he's

widely believed to be the architect of the October 7th attack.

And so it could, in fact, be an opportunity, as we heard from your previous guests, for Netanyahu to give him a ladder from which to climb down. But

that assumes that he wants a ladder. And I don't know that is an assumption that we should be making, because every decision that he's made at every

fork in the road, he has opted for escalation and prolonging of the war.

And I think Sinwar's death could just as well be seen as by Netanyahu as an opportunity to, quote, finish the job, you know, to finish off Hamas once

and for all, at least use that as a pretext.

GOLODRYGA: So let's just take the idea, perhaps, of Netanyahu viewing this as an off-ramp and as an opportunity to bring this war to an end.

What is the best way, in your view, whoever does take over for Yahya Sinwar, to be able to achieve that and see the return of the 101 remaining

hostages as well?

ELGINDY: Well, I think the first indication would be a resumption of actual ceasefire negotiations, because they've been -- there have been no talks

now for around four weeks.

So if we were to see a resumption, you know, if there were meetings being held in Cairo or in Doha or somewhere that Israel -- Israelis were involved

in and that Hamas leaders were involved in, then that would be a sign.

So if, you know, we saw a move by Hamas' leadership in that direction, then that would be an indication that they, as well as the Israelis, are willing

to pursue that path. But short of that, I -- you know, I don't -- I don't see much that could be done.

ASHER: And just in terms of Israel's strategy going forward, I mean, obviously, you've talked about this idea that Netanyahu might not be

interested in any kind of off-ramp, because it is much more politically expedient for him to keep this war going for as long as possible. A lot of

people agree with you, obviously, by the way.

So the military method of trying to eliminate Hamas is obviously one way to go about it. And just in terms of the results, in terms of killing leaders

of Hamas, that obviously does benefit Israel to some degree, but it doesn't bring about the sort of systemic change or the elimination of the ideology

that sort of perpetuates Hamas.

What is the right way for Israel to do that do you think?

ELGINDY: Yes. I mean, I think, you know, what should have been stated from the outset, frankly, by the Biden administration and the -- and the

international community is that there is no military solution to this problem, that there could be tactical military gains. You could debilitate

Hamas. You could degrade their capabilities for certain. And the same with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[12:30:12]

But ultimately, it would have to come down to a political settlement. You have to address the political root causes, as you said just a moment ago.

You know, that -- and that is not just the humanitarian situation, but the underlying causes of this violence, which is Israeli occupation, the

blockade over Gaza, the settlements, the denial of Palestinian rights, the dispossession of Palestinian communities. That is what is at the root

cause.

And I think the central failing of Israel's military doctrine has been to focus exclusively on current capabilities, military capabilities of its

enemies, as opposed to the motivation.

And as long as there's a motivation, there will be Hamas or groups like Hamas or groups worse than Hamas, even more extreme than Hamas.

So unless you're addressing that motivation, which is the suffering, the denial of rights, those grievances, then we're just -- we're just really

prolonging the conflict.

And every indication is that all of this suffering, all of this death and destruction will almost certainly perpetuate this conflict for generations

rather than the opposite.

ASHER: Some really important points. Khaled Elgindy, director of the program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs at the Middle East

Institute. Thank you so much for being with us.

GOLODRYGA: Thank you.

ELGINDY: Thank you.

GOLODRYGA: Still to come for us, Israel is trying to determine whether its military has indeed killed a leader of Hamas during a routine operation it

was conducting in Gaza. And if so, what could this mean for the region? We'll have a live report from Tel Aviv, up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:35:10]

GOLODRYGA: All right. Welcome back to ONE WORLD. I'm Bianna Golodryga.

ASHER: And I'm Zain Asher.

If all indications are true, it could mark a significant blow to Hamas and a turning point in a war that has been going on for more than a year.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. The Israeli military says it believes that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the militant group and the architect of the October 7th

massacre, was killed in Gaza.

Sources say the IDF encountered three militants during a routine military operation, and there was an exchange of fire subsequently. And

investigation is now underway using DNA analysis to determine if the Hamas chief was indeed among those killed.

So far, Sinwar's death has not been confirmed and Hamas has not publicly commented on it.

ASHER: CNN's Jeremy Diamond is joining us live now from Tel Aviv. So the DNA analysis, I assume, Jeremy, is still ongoing.

Just in terms of when we might be able to get possible confirmation on this major news, what are you hearing from your sources?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, it certainly sounds like we are relatively close to that point, whether it is a question of minutes

or hours is unclear at this point.

But it is clear that all indications are certainly pointing to confirming that the body that was retrieved, the man who was killed by Israeli forces

in Gaza does indeed appear to have been Yahya Sinwar but --

GOLODRYGA: Jeremy, I'm sorry. We're going to have to interrupt you. Were' going to have to interrupt you, Jeremy, and go to Dana Bash for more on the

story there. She is talking to MJ Lee from the White House.

(CNN U.S. SIMULCAST)

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