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Harris, Trump Close Campaigns Storming Swing States; Abortion Could Be Key Issue Among Women Voters. Aired 4:00-4:30a ET

Aired November 05, 2024 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:00:00]

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Hello and a warm welcome to our viewers joining us from the United States and around the world. 4 a.m. here in New York, 9 a.m. in London. I'm Erica Hill.

Good to have you with us on this election day in America. In the hours ahead, voters across the U.S. will be heading to the polls to make their voices heard. Though, keep in mind, nearly 80 million Americans have already cast their ballots for the next president, thanks to early voting in nearly every state.

So now those final votes will come today. At midnight, the very first election day votes were cast and quickly counted in the tiny New Hampshire township of Dixville Notch. The results there? A tie. Three votes for Kamala Harris, three for Donald Trump.

Early ballots, meantime, are being counted in Maricopa County, Arizona. It's one of the seven key battleground states that could sway the election in favor of Trump or Harris. Both candidates making their final pitches to voters in some of those other crucial states. And their closing arguments couldn't be more different.

Harris held her last rally of the campaign in Pennsylvania on Monday night. She had spent the day crisscrossing the state there, telling voters they have the momentum. But she also urged her supporters to finish how they started, with optimism, energy and joy, saying they will make the difference in the election.

Her Republican opponent spent more than two hours on stage, delivering his final pitch to voters at a Michigan rally, his third state of the day. His focus? Immigration, the economy and, once again, unfounded claims of election fraud.

The final pre-election poll from NPR, PBS News and Marist finds Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over Donald Trump, as you see there, 51 to 47 percent among likely voters. And as we incorporate that into the latest and final CNN Poll of Polls for campaign 2024, you see Harris at 49 percent, Donald Trump 47 percent. In an average of likely voters, all of this to say, it's a dead heat, people.

We are still in that place. Of the last five latest surveys, two show an edge for Harris, three show no clear winner. And it is that tight race that is really fueling the final push from both campaigns.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S. (D) AND U.S. PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We are optimistic and we are excited about what we can do together. And we know it is time for a new generation of leadership in America.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Kamala, you're fired. Get the hell out.

With your vote in this election, you can show them once and for all that this nation does not belong to them. This nation belongs to you.

GOV. TIM WALZ, D-MN, VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: You know the math. It's the blue wall. The blue wall must hold. The blue wall must hold.

GWEN WALZ, MINNESOTA FIRST LADY: This election is the ultimate group project. Yes, it is. And guess what? Final notice, it's due tomorrow.

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., FORMER INDEPENDENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been asking my supporters to not vote for me, but to vote for President Trump because if they want to see me in Washington, that's the only way I'm going to get to Washington.

SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), U.S. REPUBLICAN VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: In two days, we are going to take out the trash in Washington, D.C. and the trash's name is Kamala Harris.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Joining me now, CNN Senior Political Analyst Mark Preston, Bira Cardona, CNN Political Commentator and Democratic Strategist Scott Jennings, CNN Senior Political Commentator and former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and Ron Brownstein, CNN Senior Political Analyst and Senior Editor for The Atlantic. Nice to have everybody back with us.

So we look at these, you know, sort of closing moments, these closing arguments, where we stand right now. Two very different messages in this moment. Ron, get that out for us.

When you have that split screen, which is really what we've seen throughout the campaign, what does it do on the final day?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know, out of everything that was said in the final day, J.D. Vance calling the sitting Vice President of the United States the first female Vice President, really calling anybody in public trash, just seems to me incredibly indicative of where this campaign is ending. As we said in the last segment, from Island of Garbage to I Will Protect Women, whether they like it or not, just, you know, lining up Liz Cheney in front of rifles. I mean, Trump has spent the last week reminding voters of everything they didn't like about him when he was president.

And Harris has, I think, you know, very effectively tried to play off that, sometimes by portraying him as a threat, but sometimes also by just arguing this is exhausting and we don't need to keep doing this. [04:05:00]

I will just point out one fact, you know, I have spent my career talking about the geographic and demographic fault lines between the parties and certainly, Erica, you know, we've been on lots of segments over this year. We've talked about college versus non-college, urban versus rural, young versus old. There is one really simple rule of thumb. Women are a majority of the vote in every swing state and nationally. Women have cast more ballots than men in every election since 1980. And what that means is that to win the swing states and to win the national popular vote, Trump has to win men by more than Harris wins women. It is a very simple equation for this election.

And Vance, in particular, has just made a whole series of comments since he got on the stage that make that challenge much more formidable everywhere outside the South, where there are a lot of very culturally conservative white women. But that is a simple rule.

If Donald Trump doesn't win men by more than Harris wins women, he's going to have a long night in those swing states.

HILL: Well, also because, as you point out, there are more women who vote, right? There are more women registered to vote. And so when we look at this, Mark, you know, Ron talked about how exhausting some of this has been.

There's also a lot of this that is baked in. I mean, yes, there's a ton of terrible language, and it is certainly not what I would like my kids to see and grow up doing. And yet, when you look at it, there isn't a lot of shock factor left anymore.

So given that, how much does this rhetoric and this language change things in these final days?

MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you're right about us becoming really dulled to it all. I mean, we've been listening to this type of language now pretty consistently for the last eight years. And what we've seen that, you know, the discourse or the lack of discourse in politics has now kind of spread into civil society.

I mean, we see neighbors that don't get along because of politics. We have families that are broken up because of politics. So, you know, that in itself is pretty disturbing.

But, you know, as Ron talks about, he talks about, you know, so detailed and so well, is you've really got to dice and cut up the numbers and look at really what are the subset of folks we're looking for right now. You know, Ron's right about women and in how Donald Trump really needs to see not only these rallies, people to show up at these rallies, right, these quote-unquote low propensity voters, these younger men 18 to 29, 18 to 30, he needs them to go out and vote. Now, the Trump campaign says that they have gone out and vote.

We don't know if that is true. We do know that the early vote numbers are up, but we don't know if those are traditional voters at all. But really, what we're going to do is really slice this down to seven

states and then we're going to slice it down to probably two or three states. And I think that when we look at these states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, Kamala Harris spent five stops in Wisconsin yesterday, three stops by Tim Walls, her running mate in Wisconsin. Clearly, there's something in those two states that they either see where they can win or they may have a little concern about losing.

At the same time, look at where Trump is going. You know, Trump decided to go to Grand Rapids to do his closing rally. That is the third time he has done that in the third campaign. But it wasn't just him that went to Michigan.

We also saw Vance go there as well yesterday. So do they see something there or are they trying to do a head fake? Kind of late to try to do a head fake, but in politics, who knows?

HILL: I mean, is it ever too late in politics? I mean, as we look at all of this, the mention that has come up more than once of these low- propensity voters, young male voters, Scott, the fact that Joe Rogan on Monday came out and endorsed Donald Trump, how much do you think that could make in terms of the difference for some of those voters?

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, you know, he did it so early in the election here. I mean, right at the end and you got coming out in the night before, I guess better late than never. Look, he has a huge audience.

There is a reason Donald Trump did his podcast. There's a reason Vance did it. I mean, look, there's a reason Donald Trump shows up at UFC fights.

In my opinion, this election in some ways has become a war between college-educated women and non-college-educated men. It's this, yes, we've been talking about the gender gap a lot, but also you can't underscore enough this sort of college versus non-college that we have in this election. Ron and I have talked about this before and that's one of the things I'm most fascinated to see how it turns out.

Ron's right on the algebra. If you win women by more, if she wins women by more than he wins men, then obviously she's going to win. But there's this other divide and it's this working class versus college- educated divide.

And you know, there's a reason that two-thirds of the country thinks we're off on the wrong track. It's because a huge majority of the working-class people in this country believe they've been beaten down by the current administration. And it just so happens that Kamala Harris is the vice president of the current administration.

[04:10:00]

So for Trump, you're going after people who believe they have been losers in the Biden-Harris economy. You're going after young men. And the idea of getting new people into the electorate who don't usually vote, maybe have never voted, that is called changing the composition of the electorate. It would make the polls wrong if he was able to do that.

And we don't yet know whether that's going to come true. That's what makes election night so exciting. I mean, look, Obama did this. He changed the composition of the electorate. He had access to voters that only he could talk to. I think the same is true of Trump. The question is now, did he actually convert them into actual voting people?

HILL: We'll find out. By election night, you mean election week, right, Scott? Being exciting?

JENNINGS: No, I mean election night. I'm going to be -- I'm going to have an optimistic thought.

HILL: You know but speaking of sort of sort of changing the electorate, bringing people over, I was also struck. So in this NPR Marist poll, when it comes to Kamala Harris, she's getting -- she had eight percent of likely Republican voters there. Why does that matter?

That's up three points from October, Maria. And it's actually twice the number of Democrats breaking for Trump. That says something, too.

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Absolutely, Erica. And this goes to what I was saying in the earlier segment, which is that part of the Kamala Harris campaign strategy is to appeal to independents, to disaffected moderate Republicans, even disaffected conservative Republicans like Liz Cheney, who understand that we are at a moment in time that is much more important than partisan politics, that it transcends party, that it is about who we are as a nation and who we want to be in terms of where do we want to raise our kids? How do we want to raise our kids?

You know, Erica, I've been working with a lot of groups that are going door to door. And one of the things that I'm hearing from them that they hear about is that they're talking to undecided voters, voters who voted for Trump in 2016, voted for Trump in 2020, but are now taking a look and they're exhausted. And they're saying, look, this man is right now what I'm hearing from him is much worse than what I have heard from him before.

He has become an absolute bully. And how can I raise my kids in a time when I am trying to desperately teach them to not be this and then go out and vote for this? And so while I think that a lot of Republicans and strategists and Trump supporters are saying, look, Trump is Trump. He's who he is. People know who he is. I think a lot of Americans are looking at his rhetoric, are looking at his demeanor, and they see somebody who is much worse, much darker, frankly, much more unhinged.

And there have been articles written about this, about how his language has changed and that has become a lot more divisive and dystopian. And Americans can see that. And so even those who have been voting for him and supporting him before now take a look at him and say, I can't do this anymore, which is why I think Kamala Harris's message about we don't have to do this anymore, we don't have to live like this anymore, we can turn the page, we can move forward, we can find a new pathway forward together, that kind of message I think is appealing for those kinds of voters.

HILL: Maria, Scott. Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: Just real quick.

HILL: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: As Scott said, you can never discount Trump's capacity to change the composition of the electorate because he's done it before. But when you look at early voting, there is just no evidence of the bro wave that he's counting on. Women are more of the first-time voters, young voters, single voters, infrequent voters.

The gap between women and men and all of those categories in the early vote is as big as it was in 2020, and sometimes even bigger. So maybe all of these Joe Rogan listeners are going to show up today, but they haven't yet shown up in bigger numbers than they did in 2020 so far.

HILL: We will be watching. Ron, Maria, Scott, Mark, appreciate it. Thank you all.

Reproductive rights, as we know, is a key concern for so many voters in this election. So just ahead, we'll take a closer look at how that may be influencing voters, many of them women, but not all, how it may be influencing those votes.

And then turning the page, rescuing America. Just some of the closing remarks on Election Eve. So who said what? Those details ahead.

[04:15:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HILL: This very long, extremely expensive, incredibly drawn-out race is now really truly winding down. These are the final hours and the presidential hopefuls have already delivered their closing arguments. CNN senior White House producer Betsy Klein is watching all of this action for us from Washington.

So the final push to voters, two very different messages, we should say. How did it go?

BETSY KLEIN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE PRODUCER: Well, Erica, we made it, right? And it's certainly, we've seen an intentional shift from Vice President Harris as she made those closing arguments in the last 24 hours. She really did not reference former President Donald Trump by name and that was intentional, sources say, as she's looking to project some optimism and hope and cast herself as a change candidate.

Now, we'll see if voters agree with that today, excuse me, but really her last day framed around unity. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: America is ready for a fresh start, ready for a new way forward where we see our fellow American not as an enemy but as a neighbor. And we are ready for a president who knows that the true measure of a leader is not based on who you beat down but based on who you lift up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[04:20:00]

KLEIN: While we have seen a darkening of rhetoric from former President Donald Trump as he has made his closing arguments, he has tried to sow doubt on election integrity. While we have seen a darkening of rhetoric from former President Donald Trump as he has made his closing arguments, he has tried to sow doubt on election integrity. He has baselessly claimed that Democrats are cheating.

He also said he shouldn't have left the White House after he lost in 2020 and has been airing his grievances at his political rivals. So take a look at what we had in the last final rally.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Over the past four years, Americans have suffered one catastrophic failure, betrayal and humiliation after another. Kamala has delivered soaring prices --

(CROWD BOOING)

TRUMP: -- and true economic anguish at home, war and chaos abroad, and a nation-destroying invasion on our southern border. Invasion of some of the greatest criminals in the world that are pouring into our country. And we're not going to take that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KLEIN: This after former President Trump's allies and aides had implored him to stay on message in these final hours. But Trump also asked a question straight out of the Reagan playbook, asking voters, are you better off now than you were four years ago -- Erica.

HILL: Betsy, appreciate it. Thank you. And we are almost there. Almost.

Well, abortion, of course, has been a real galvanizing issue for Democrats in this race, frankly, ever since Roe vs. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in June of 2022.

Both presidential candidates differ in their views on the issue. Donald Trump has said he opposes a national abortion ban, that he prefers to leave it to the states. Kamala Harris supports federal legislation to protect abortion access.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: Ours is a fight for freedom --

(CHEERING) HARRIS: -- including the most fundamental freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body and not have her government tell her what to do.

(CHEERING)

HARRIS: And when Congress passes a bill to restore reproductive freedom nationwide as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law.

(CHEERING)

HARRIS: Proudly. Proudly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Reproductive rights are actually on the ballot in a number of states today across the country. Voters in at least 10 states will determine the future of abortion access in their states.

For more, I'm joined by Andrew Sinclair. He's assistant professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. Andrew, good to have you with us this morning.

You know, as we saw from the vice president there, the way she has really leaned in here, frankly, in a way that Joe Biden was either uncomfortable doing or unable to do, that, too, has really amounted to a significant shift in the way that this is even talked about this election cycle.

ANDREW SINCLAIR, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT, CLAREMONT MCKENNA COLLEGE: Sure, and I think this is going to be a very stressful election day for a lot of Americans. So one of the things that I do at the Rose Institute at CMC is participate in polling. And we found recently that only about 10 percent of Americans thought that neither candidate was a threat to American democracy.

But we did find that Donald Trump's negatives were a bit higher than Vice President Harris's. And so she may be effectively delivering that message. We found that 79 percent of Democrats strongly disagreed that Donald Trump was a person of good moral character, for example, while only 58 percent of Republicans strongly disagreed with the idea that Vice President Harris was a person of good moral character.

And so those are both high numbers. And lots of Republicans and Democrats are worried about what happens if the other side wins. But former President Trump's negatives are a bit higher.

HILL: So as we look at all that, it's been striking to see the role. Look, women always play an important role in elections, as we know, and we've been talking about this a lot, but it doesn't hurt to say it again. Women are a larger slice of the electorate, and they also tend to turn out in larger numbers for elections.

But the fact that there has been so much of a focus on women this time around, and we are hearing from so many women and not just young women. I was really struck by this, you know, the Seltzer poll out of Iowa. Women 65 and older. Kamala Harris is up 35 points with those women. That's significant.

SINCLAIR: That's right. And we see a very large gender gap in terms of presidential vote choice. But this is also very strongly correlated with partisanship. So women tend to be Democrats more than Republicans. And so a lot of what's going to happen tomorrow will depend on the intensity of those opinions and whether it encourages people to turn out to vote in higher numbers -- encourages women to turn out to vote in higher numbers than men or than they have historically.

HILL: And is it your sense that the issue of abortion, reproductive rights, is this a bigger driver this time around for women?

[04:25:00]

SINCLAIR: I think it's always been part of the picture, right? So if you travel back in time to 2016, this was something that people talked about a lot, something people talked a lot about in the 2020 election as well.

In the midterms, I distinctly remember a teaching class during the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. And so these kinds of issues have come up a lot and been intensely part of American politics for a long time.

But I think there is a sense for everyone in this election that it is really the reward for all the marbles, right?

HILL: Yes. I mean, the intensity, there is certainly a different conversation happening in 2024. That's impossible to ignore.

SINCLAIR: Right, and it's possible that, you know, we're talking about control, not only the presidency, but also the Senate and also the House of Representatives and with potential Supreme Court appointments coming up, that control the Senate and control the presidency really means control of the Supreme Court. So it's a lot on the line and that should bring that intensity out. But it may be the case that this is actually slightly more motivating for Democrats than for Republicans.

And one of the questions we asked in our most recent survey was a question about, do you agree or disagree with this statement on abortion should be legal in most or all cases? And for Democrats, you know, men and women answered, Democratic men and women answered the question about the same, about 60 percent of women strongly agree, 58 percent of Democratic men. But in the strongly disagree category, which is again, mostly Republicans, you know, there's only 31 percent amongst women and 32 percent amongst Republican men.

And so the intensity of the feeling is greater on the Democratic side, even though there are obviously Republicans who feel very strongly about this issue.

HILL: It will be fascinating to see, of course, not only the outcome of the election, but as we get more and more of the data in the days to come to see how all of this plays out in terms of the splits. Andrew, thank you.

SINCLAIR: Thank you.

HILL: Well, in this race that is still neck and neck, we know that there is a certain number that one candidate needs to get to, to win. So what are the various paths to 270 electoral votes for each candidate? That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)